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E PA/NJ/DE Spring 2018 OBS Thread

Rtd208

By Rtd208,
in Philadelphia Region

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Birds~69

Birds~69

Posted
Posted
On 5/4/2018 at 9:54 PM, KamuSnow said:

Lol, I agree. 3 days in a row here 90F plus. Thought we might stay cooler today but when the sun came out around noon here the temperature took off. This weekend and next week should be better.

Tried to come up with something regarding the allegories, Aesops Fables came to mind, but the idea bulb didn't light up. Auto-correct sometimes over performs, I once had the last name of a customer "corrected" from Reznicek to Redneck. There is a real nice layer of light green pollen in places around here. Some wetness would be nice after the dry week but not much doing here so far tonight. 76F currently.

Yep...this sucks. I like the crisp days.

As far as allegories, I've been popping pills (non-drowsy) to no end.

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KamuSnow

KamuSnow

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, JTA66 said:

Current radar = precip in central PA, precip out in the Atlantic and nada over I-95. Good thing it's May. If it was winter, there'd be some very angry weenies right now (me included).

Getting a little shower here now, 62F. Had a lighter one last evening, this is nice, feels like we need it. Knocks down the pollen a little too.

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Birds~69

Birds~69

Posted
Posted
28 minutes ago, KamuSnow said:

Getting a little shower here now, 62F. Had a lighter one last evening, this is nice, feels like we need it. Knocks down the pollen a little too.

Shower here as well...super dark to my W. According to radar looks like we'll get more steady stuff.  And God Bless knocking down the pollen!!!!

po.jpg

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The Iceman

The Iceman

Posted
Posted

tomorrow is looking like the best tornado threat in years around here...really about as good as it get around here. Lots can still go wrong, but we are firmly in the bullseye right now per SPC..

  

...Ohio Valley to the Mid Atlantic States...
   Severe probabilities and categorical risk have been upgraded across
   the upper Ohio Valley to the Mid Atlantic region.  Boundary layer
   moistening is expected in advance of the southward advancing surface
   boundary, while strong diabatic heating and the eastern extent of a
   steep midlevel lapse rate plume contribute to moderate instability
   across the warm sector Saturday afternoon.  Mainly elevated storms
   are expected to be ongoing north of the surface front at the start
   of Day 2, with activity becoming surface based as the boundary
   advances south into the destabilizing environment.  Moderately
   strong deep-layer west-northwesterlies suggest line segments/bowing
   structures will be the primary storm mode, though effective bulk
   shear of 35-45 kt indicates embedded supercells will also be
   possible.  There is increasing concern and confidence for several
   swaths of damaging winds across the upper Ohio Valley to the
   northern Mid Atlantic region, as suggested by several CAMs.  A
   midlevel perturbation is expected to move through these areas during
   peak heating increasing the likelihood for thunderstorm development.
   A tornado threat will be possible across northern MD into southeast
   PA and adjacent NJ and DE, as low-level shear increases to the east
   and northeast of a surface low tracking into MD and along the warm
   front.
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Hurricane Agnes

Hurricane Agnes

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, The Iceman said:

12z hi res wrf-arw brings a big time squall line through tomorrow afternoon..

 

wrf-arw_ref_frzn_neus_35.png

If that verifies as depicted, it looks like it would impact the northern CWA more.  I know what tends to happen where I am is that with frontal passages, the gust front often cools the air enough (with some heavy rain) to stabilize the atmosphere - especially if the temp differential isn't that big behind the front as the air mass modifies as it moves east.  The mid-summer 90s with a strong CFP tends to produce better convective.

Otherwise, got up to 76 here today and currently 73 and mostly cloudy.

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KamuSnow

KamuSnow

Posted
Posted
7 hours ago, The Iceman said:

tomorrow is looking like the best tornado threat in years around here...really about as good as it get around here. Lots can still go wrong, but we are firmly in the bullseye right now per SPC..

Lol- I'll pass, thanks. I like big trees and a roof overhead. But yeah, I get it!

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hazwoper

hazwoper

Posted
Posted
13 hours ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

If that verifies as depicted, it looks like it would impact the northern CWA more.  I know what tends to happen where I am is that with frontal passages, the gust front often cools the air enough (with some heavy rain) to stabilize the atmosphere - especially if the temp differential isn't that big behind the front as the air mass modifies as it moves east.  The mid-summer 90s with a strong CFP tends to produce better convective.

Otherwise, got up to 76 here today and currently 73 and mostly cloudy.

This is a much different setup then our typical frontal passages

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Hurricane Agnes

Hurricane Agnes

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, hazwoper said:

This is a much different setup then our typical frontal passages

It's currently 54 degrees here so unless the temp shoots up (with the warm front not taking it's time lifting north), then that may not verify per se.  I was looking at the SPC outlook this morning and noted what areas they had placed the "Moderate Risk" and it wasn't Philly on north.  I know there is a MD E - > W swath (just north of D.C.) that tends to get the nasty thunderstorms and potential tornadoes and I expect that may be where most of it sets up.... Again unless the warm front really lifts up in time to heat it up further north of the Mason Dixon line (not that it won't but will have to monitor).

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JTA66

JTA66

Posted
Posted
11 hours ago, KamuSnow said:

Lol- I'll pass, thanks. I like big trees and a roof overhead. But yeah, I get it!

I'm with you, Kamu, I have no use for severe weather. You sick, twisted freaks who want it can have it...lol!!

 

This goes w/o saying, but we'll see how quickly these morning clouds burn off. We're not far from the solstice, the sun is pretty much overhead now. It won't take much to prime the atmosphere.

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KamuSnow

KamuSnow

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Bring on the severe, two weeks in Monmouth and the first significant rain was this morning. Pollen was getting so deep i could almost measure it.

 

Had at least a trace here. Of pollen that is; got almost a half inch of rain last night. Nice to see that it apparently wants to rain - after two weeks with less than a tenth inch of rain I started to water a little this past week. Works better if you do it before the lawn turns brown.

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KamuSnow

KamuSnow

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, JTA66 said:

I'm with you, Kamu, I have no use for severe weather. You sick, twisted freaks who want it can have it...lol!!

 

This goes w/o saying, but we'll see how quickly these morning clouds burn off. We're not far from the solstice, the sun is pretty much overhead now. It won't take much to prime the atmosphere.

I checked the satellite for cloud cover and down here we're at the southern edge of some low clouds that are slowly lifting north. Starting to get a few peeks of sun.

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