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April 2 Snow Event

NorthArlington101

By NorthArlington101,
in Mid Atlantic

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
20 minutes ago, Mdecoy said:

This is simply not true.

We were under a winter weather advisory, New Castle County. Where I reside. The txt forecast definitely said 1 to 3, also the zone forecast listed 2 inches for me, and in Maryland in Harford county for Bel Air, they listed 2-3, also under a WWA. Neither area saw so much as a flake. This was not "worst case" or anything of that nature. This was their forecast.

This is fact, and its a shame I didn't save any of it.

Also the txt mentioned, Monday morning commute impact, possible accumulation on the roads, one inch per hour with higher rates, was for my area. To their credit they did mention more up near the PA border, of course my house is only 8 miles from PA. Signs on I-95 yesterday read "winter storm tomorrow morning, be prepared" Millions of people see these.

 

It was a blown forecast.

I don't get why you have to get so offended over that. I am just stating a fact.

 

 

Separate issue: I will agree that discarding the NWS and reading here would have been a more accurate depiction of events, and it was.

 

 

 

Last night when I looked at the Mt Holly map the only place in Delaware that was in 1-3 was the extreme NW part and if you changed it to the specific amount map vs the range one that area of northern DE was 1".  There was only one 2" and that was right on the NW DE/PA border right near the highest point in Delaware along the border...so unless you live RIGHT ON THE PA line on the NW tip of DE then your forecast on the map was 1".  Yes if you changed it to range it said 1-3 but UGH come on you know better.  I don't know what the point and click thing said but those are a joke and if you are on here and still using them and expecting that... just stop.  You are cherry picking to try to make this a thing when its not.  OK fine you were supposed to get 2" and got nothing.  Big deal.  This isnt some epic bust.  They hedge snowy just in case a lot.  The reason here is more accurate is often because we don't have public safety and politics to worry about.  We can simply discuss the MOST LIKELY OUTCOME which is not always the only thing that goes into the NWS forecast.  They have more considerations then just your feelings and the snow on your lawn.  

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North Balti Zen

North Balti Zen

Posted
Posted

1. I don't care if mdecoy posts or not. I would be okay with not.

2. Cape's area has killed it for snow the last two years and even when it hasn't Cape has been blessed with the time and means to chase two good storms. Good for Cape, but, I would submit that would lead to someone being less frustrated than people who can't do that.

3. Telling people who have really struggled for legit snow events since 1/16/16 to just deal with it when you yourself have seen some legit snow events in that time and bragging about having the means to live to optimize snow chances is kinda uncool. 

4. Maybe just let people be frustrated who are frustrated. Other than mdecoy, who really should be frustrated in a whole other forum.

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RevWarReenactor

RevWarReenactor

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Last night when I looked at the Mt Holly map the only place in Delaware that was in 1-3 was the extreme NW part and if you changed it to the specific amount map vs the range one that area of northern DE was 1".  There was only one 2" and that was right on the NW DE/PA border right near the highest point in Delaware along the border...so unless you live RIGHT ON THE PA line on the NW tip of DE then your forecast on the map was 1".  Yes if you changed it to range it said 1-3 but UGH come on you know better.  I don't know what the point and click thing said but those are a joke and if you are on here and still using them and expecting that... just stop.  You are cherry picking to try to make this a thing when its not.  OK fine you were supposed to get 2" and got nothing.  Big deal.  This isnt some epic bust.  They hedge snowy just in case a lot.  The reason here is more accurate is often because we don't have public safety and politics to worry about.  We can simply discuss the MOST LIKELY OUTCOME which is not always the only thing that goes into the NWS forecast.  They have more considerations then just your feelings and the snow on your lawn.  

Fair enough,

I think the disconnect here is I was pulling maps from around noon-3pm yesterday so it would have been before last nights update , where they slowly started to back off. I feel like anything less than 24 hours before game time they should have their stuff nailed down, and it just feels like an endless pattern of blown forecasts and last minute model haircuts (it happened with our March 20th storm as well).

I guess it is just the nature of the beast.

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CAPE

CAPE

Posted
Posted
14 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

1. I don't care if mdecoy posts or not. I would be okay with not.

2. Cape's area has killed it for snow the last two years and even when it hasn't Cape has been blessed with the time and means to chase two good storms. Good for Cape, but, I would submit that would lead to someone being less frustrated than people who can't do that.

3. Telling people who have really struggled for legit snow events since 1/16/16 to just deal with it when you yourself have seen some legit snow events in that time and bragging about having the means to live to optimize snow chances is kinda uncool. 

4. Maybe just let people be frustrated who are frustrated. Other than mdecoy, who really should be frustrated in a whole other forum.

Well, not so much last winter. I think 8" was the total in my yard. This year I have done pretty well with a tad over 19. Climo for here is 18.5-19.

Point taken about chasing. Without those 2 adventures, the winters (esp last winter) would not have been as enjoyable.

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

1. I don't care if mdecoy posts or not. I would be okay with not.

2. Cape's area has killed it for snow the last two years and even when it hasn't Cape has been blessed with the time and means to chase two good storms. Good for Cape, but, I would submit that would lead to someone being less frustrated than people who can't do that.

3. Telling people who have really struggled for legit snow events since 1/16/16 to just deal with it when you yourself have seen some legit snow events in that time and bragging about having the means to live to optimize snow chances is kinda uncool. 

4. Maybe just let people be frustrated who are frustrated. Other than mdecoy, who really should be frustrated in a whole other forum.

We will probably have to just agree to disagree which is perfectly fine.  No hard feelings.  But that last part... there are two places where they can do that and no one will ever ever ever say anything about it.  We have a thread devoted specifically to that.  And we have a banter thread where that is pretty much allowed also.  And I have NEVER never ever not once replied to anyone about this in those threads.  If they want to make 2000 posts complaining about the weather in banter OR panic room I will never say a thing about it.  Never have never will.  But if they are going to post it in a thread devoted to "discussion" then they will have to deal with the discussion that comes from it.  Including some (not just me) pushing back on them.  

Maybe there needs to be a discussion during the "offseason" about thread decorum.  And I am willing to conform to whatever norm the majority decides.  If it is determined that complains and whining is acceptable in the discussion threads I will stop saying anything about it.  But right now, its been asked several times by multiple people that those types of posts be in banter and panic and yet some poeple still want to continue to post them in the wrong threads.  I am perfectly fine with that...but then if they do that its not fair to complain when I or others push back and rib them a little...or a lot.   They have to take it if they are going to post where they know there will be pushback.  If they want to vent and NOT have any discussion about it then go to banter and panic.  

I am NOT the authority on this.  I am NOT a mod.  I am NOT telling others what to do.  I am just following what I thought were the current forum norms and expectations.  And I am willing to change and adapt if the consensus is to allow that kind of thing in the discussion threads from now on.  I will do what I do in the banter and panic and just ignore it and not say a word.  I am willing to work with whatever the board norms are.  I am not trying to be a jerk.  I am sorry if it comes off that way.  But I feel like some doing exactly the same thing after being asked to stop over and over and over again all winter long is being just as much a jerk as me and some others pushing back at them when they continue to whine and complain constantly in the storm discussion threads.  

Finally this is NOT a contentious conversation to me.  Hopefully you don't take it that way.  I don't mind talking about this, and if the majority feels its best to just let Mdecoy and others like that post away whatever feelings they have in the discussion threads I will no longer post comments about that back at them.  

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CAPE

CAPE

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, North Balti Zen said:

There was an exchange back a few pages. I agree mdecoy's presence in this forum given his location is problematic. Maestro is rightly frustrated and was, as usual, lectured.

I think the "lecturing" was Mdecoy based. Again, unless I am not seeing something everyone else is lol. 

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RevWarReenactor

RevWarReenactor

Posted
Posted

People are way too sensitive, all I said was it was a blown forecast.  Which it was. That's not off topic or banter. The storm is over. It's April, it amounted to very little.

Saying "it was a blown forecast" as a stated fact and people get offended over it is downright ridiculous.

Now we can't even post  facts if they are negative. Soon they will ban saying "the snow has turned to rain" as off topic banter and negative.

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

I would sumbit medecoy is a special sub-problem, psu. He's on ignore for a lot of people, maybe simply add him to the ignore list? As for maestro's thoughts, seriously, maybe just let those be? It comes off as lecturing people on how to feel. Which is weird.

Fair enough... I didn't mean to come off so harsh on Maestro, I really didn't, but I guess I was kinda frustrated myself but not for the same reason.  For me it was all winter...snow or no snow, I just love to track and analyze but given the awful two year stretch we had I had to put up with about 20 posts of garbage and non stop whining and complaining and "winters over" and "we suck" and "just give up" kinda of crap for every single good analysis post.  I understand why that was happening but it made the discussion threads unbearable.  So we finally got a legit snowstorm.  Seriously it was 3-6" across the 95 corridor.  That's about in line with our largest snowstorm in a normal year much of the time.  It was a legit event.  Not historic but a legit snow.  And the best part to me honestly (and Bob said the same thing at one point so I am not the only one thinking this way)...wasn't the snow, it was that maybe it would SHUT UP the people who were doing nothing but complain that it isn't snowing.  It finally snowed.  And it would finally end the "persistence" "it hasn't snowed all winter give up why are you wasting your time" BS nonsense we get every year when it doesn't snow early.   Those two things drive me nuts because when its not snowing it sucks but complaining about it in the discussion thread and ruining any good analysis we want to do wont make it any better...and we have had late snowstorms in CRAP years many times so persistence is nonsense.  This was finally something to stop BOTH of those things.  But it feels like a few days go bye and some of the same people are back to acting the same way as if the storm didnt happen.  As if the snow didn't change anything.  Seriously the same people are still complaining about it not snowing right after a big snowstorm.  It changed NOTHING.  And that has me way more frustrated then any lack of snow.  You would think after getting a 3-6" snowstorm that we would at least get a month without the "it never snows here this sucks" posts.  

You are right though my snarky reply to Maestro was a bit too much. I am sorry for that.  I was frustrated and came off too strong probably.  But that is why I was frustrated.  Had to listen to complaints it wasnt snowing all winter...we get snow and a week later the complains start again.  Seriously?   I guess the ONLY time we are going to not have these complains is when we get a year like 2010 or 2014.  Even in 2015 and 2016 there were significant stretches of those winters where it was unbearable with the whining in here.  

Again I agree I came off too strong with Maestro, you are right about that, I shouldn't have been as snarky with him as I was.  I admit I was wrong.  

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Mdecoy said:

People are way too sensitive, all I said was it was a blown forecast.  Which it was. That's not off topic or banter. The storm is over. It's April, it amounted to very little.

Saying "it was a blown forecast" as a stated fact and people get offended over it is downright ridiculous.

Now we can't even post  facts if they are negative. Soon they will ban saying "the snow has turned to rain" as off topic banter and negative.

no one is offended we are just arguing with you.  now your complaining that people don't agree with you about the magnitude of the busted forecast.   

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CAPE

CAPE

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, Mdecoy said:

People are way too sensitive, all I said was it was a blown forecast.  Which it was. That's not off topic or banter. The storm is over. It's April, it amounted to very little.

Saying "it was a blown forecast" as a stated fact and people get offended over it is downright ridiculous.

Now we can't even post  facts if they are negative. Soon they will ban saying "the snow has turned to rain" as off topic banter and negative.

Want to tell us the criteria for a blown forecast?

You had unrealistic expectations and were unhappy with the result. Stated fact. Blown forecast. Plans were ruined and lives were put at risk because an inch of slush didn't materialize in your yard.

Go post in the Philly subforum.

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RevWarReenactor

RevWarReenactor

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

no one is offended we are just arguing with you.  now your complaining that people don't agree with you about the magnitude of the busted forecast.   

It was a decent year. We beat climo here. I have to take back all the complaints I had earlier in the year. Sure it was frustrating at times ( even you can agree there).... but somehow we pulled off  Climo. Most people don’t have a right to say that this winter was terrible. It wasn’t. 

im going to leave it at that and wrap up my presence here till dec. unless there is some crazy out of the norm t storm

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stormtracker

stormtracker

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Mdecoy said:

It was a decent year. We beat climo here. I have to take back all the complaints I had earlier in the year. Sure it was frustrating at times ( even you can agree there).... but somehow we pulled off  Climo. Most people don’t have a right to say that this winter was terrible. It wasn’t. 

im going to leave it at that and wrap up my presence here till dec. unless there is some crazy out of the norm t storm

You promise?  

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