Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,508
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    joxey
    Newest Member
    joxey
    Joined

Napril Fools? Pattern and Model Discussion . . .


HimoorWx

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 3.4k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
14 hours ago, weathafella said:

That’s amazing!  Simply astounded!  Biggest snow in 130 years on 4/15!

 

13 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

2nd biggest snowstorm ever. 21.3 inches. Talk about a second winter they had 25 going into March 1 now near 70. FYI Marquette now at 149 this year 

I wouldn't be surprised if some of their bigger ones were shoulder season. Generally warmer temps and more moisture this time of year can help squeeze out higher snow totals vs. deep winter for them.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Sugarloaf1989 said:

NWS had all rain. There was a bit of rain mixed in. Nobody had this amount of sleet forecast.

Well the NWS very often isn’t correct and it’s unwise to follow them and think what they forecast will happen.

If you were following here, there was a lot of discussion about sleet and ice accumulation 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Other than isolated pockets and a backyard or two...  the region as a whole is ending or ended accretion.. .

https://www.wunderground.com/wundermap?lat=42.36000061&lon=-71.06999969&zoom=8

Interestingly ...we never did get much icing here in Ayer.  We got the 3/4" of sleet but it went to 32.1 light rain prior to dawn. 

I'm surprised there isn't more flood concerns for the day. That wall of baroclinic rain in the M/A is really something and it's poised to sweep over the region.

Guess all this belongs in the obs thread for this storm ... oh -wait. 

Anyway, next weekend is another universe of sensible weather entirely... Night would still be chilly in the synoptic look, but the x-factor ...good ole sol, that's gonna cook the boundary layers by day and probably do some pretty significant convective processing/thickness modulation by mid afternoons.  So, whatever MOS has, should the Euro/ICON("ic" piece of dung) model verify (and the EPS isn't exactly down on the idea), you add to those numbers.  Probably a solid 3 or 5 F at that. ...  We just have to suffer this week, and quite plausibly trample on the backs of the bruised on Thursday...

Which, struggling to maintain objectivity ...we can't discount the potential there, though right now (thankfully) it looks to be another scenario where the S/Stream is outrunning the attempting subsume of the N/stream ... the same shearing tendency that screwed up the phasing of those other big storms back in March actually... Interesting seasonal persistence with that particular stream interactivity hmm.  Still, the scenario should be watched because marginal atmosphere is obviously still workable for the obvious eye-glazing theoretical points.

After that, sprawling midland +PP with forcing off-shore, dry air and high April sun will be a welcome deal. I could see it being 38 at dawns to 64 type afternoons, with light winds..

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Other than isolated pockets and a backyard or two...  the region as a whole is ending or ended accretion.. .

https://www.wunderground.com/wundermap?lat=42.36000061&lon=-71.06999969&zoom=8

Interestingly ...we never did get much icing here in Ayer.  We got the 3/4" of sleet but it went to 32.1 light rain prior to dawn. 

I'm surprised there isn't more flood concerns for the day. That wall of baroclinic rain in the M/A is really something and it's poised to sweep over the region. 

I’m very concerned. Almost an inch of liquid here in the form of IPZR and 1-2” of rain coming in on top of that.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

25 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Well the NWS very often isn’t correct and it’s unwise to follow them and think what they forecast will happen.

If you were following here, there was a lot of discussion about sleet and ice accumulation 

Clown.

But, I do think we have an issue sometimes with putting in the grids what we expect to happen. Most everyone expected the cold air to take forever to get scoured out, yet some forecasters still relied on model guidance to derive their temp grids. Yeah, we have thousands of grid points to edit but if you even use a fraction of the GFS with its faux mixed layer near the surface your 2 m temps are going to be way off with an inversion like this.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

heavy wind driven rains and T-storms here currently.  41

I'm hoping to get that up here...  Morbidity of thought and emotion aside, it's a welcome relief from this still air 33.1 F rain over cryo death sleet pack we got over night.  Really ...there is no definable reality in nature that could be worse then this, because to attempt to do so would have no effective meaning in the Cosmos and therefore cannot really exist.  It's that bad here...

It'd take white nose whirring through barren tree tops and the occasional sheet lightning pulse, with temps rising through the 40s as a delicious schit eating grin alternative to this cancerous rectal cavity of a condition we're jammed up with right now... with speed!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Clown.

But, I do think we have an issue sometimes with putting in the grids what we expect to happen. Most everyone expected the cold air to take forever to get scoured out, yet some forecasters still relied on model guidance to derive their temp grids. Yeah, we have thousands of grid points to edit but if you even use a fraction of the GFS with its faux mixed layer near the surface your 2 m temps are going to be way off with an inversion like this.

:whistle:Lol. I knew that would get you .. your office is good.. ours .. leaves a bit to be desired 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

26 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I’m very concerned. Almost an inch of liquid here in the form of IPZR and 1-2” of rain coming in on top of that.

And I don't know if there are any actual studies on this ... but say 2" of locked water, suddenly becoming unlocked water, because temps surge above that magical molecular 37 F with sheets of rain and winds to 30 mph ... So you're getting 2.5" of rain in two hours in that band and it's suddenly more like 4" of run-off... I dunno - sounds dicey doesn't it -

Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Clown.

But, I do think we have an issue sometimes with putting in the grids what we expect to happen. Most everyone expected the cold air to take forever to get scoured out, yet some forecasters still relied on model guidance to derive their temp grids. Yeah, we have thousands of grid points to edit but if you even use a fraction of the GFS with its faux mixed layer near the surface your 2 m temps are going to be way off with an inversion like this.

Nobody had this amount of sleet forecast, not the NWS, Crapuweather or WU. Also, everyone I saw had the temperature climbing above freezing when it went the other way once the precipitation started.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...