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Napril Fools? Pattern and Model Discussion . . .


HimoorWx

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Man... the novel of the week isn't the chapter about snow on Monday...  (if at all this far N).  It's story about spring variation, one that features any kind of wintry event followed two days later by a warm sector intrusion that may bring 70 F to those same areas...along with possibly even a substantive severe potential (less confident).

Has that transitional story line crossed anyone's attention ?   

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11 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Man... the novel of the week isn't the chapter about snow on Monday...  (if at all this far N).  It's story about spring variation, one that features any kind of wintry event followed two days later by a warm sector intrusion that may bring 70 F to those same areas...along with possibly even a substantive severe potential (less confident).

Has that transitional story line crossed anyone's attention ?   

Yes we’ve been talking about 3-6” Monday then 70”s and dews with damaging storms Wednesday and then capped off with a tree toppler next weekend. Then suddenly it’s summer past mid month 

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Warm ground is not total BS....

It's more like 'partial BS'   Both sides of that discussion are kinda wrong, at least the way people argue their points.  

One side, the warm ground is too warm: that side is wrong because it thinks of initial environment condition of a day of warm sun as being preclusive and absolute, which is remarkably short-sighted and well...not based on very good science. 

The other side, the side that said it's BS: also thinks that it's absolutely untrue - which is false. If it snows...wee, we get to get a snow pack?  No...not quite. 

Fact of the matter is, some warmth is retained in the aftermath of a warm stint of weather ...and, depending upon the material exposed to falling snow, the accumulation success will be effected for a time. Which means, ...it matters to some degree (no pun intended). 

For example, metalic interfaces have very low heat retention when contacted by cold water such as that found in falling snow, and will in a matter of moments even,  chill down to a temperature where snow can stick. Provided of course the surrounding air temperature is not doing the melting - ie, above freezing, but even then...intense fall rates will overcome. 

That's the cold end of the spectrum,... Concrete and asphalt interfaces on the other hand, they will retain more heat and it depends upon the conditioning prior.  A very warm stretch that goes quickly to cold, will melt a pig load of what falls...yes, even intense rates (I have seen 1/4 mi vis snow on wet roads), but if the fall rates persist long enough...it will eventually cool the material sufficiently to where melt rates fall below deposition rates, and the snow stays. 

The earth soil (under grass) is also relative to materials ... somewhere in between those extremes. But a lot of time, snow fall clings to the fuzz of lose materials and dead grass (or living), and start accumulating above the actual contact with the soil beneath.. so the physics there are complex.  

 

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9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yes we’ve been talking about 3-6” Monday then 70”s and dews with damaging storms Wednesday and then capped off with a tree toppler next weekend. Then suddenly it’s summer past mid month 

Nice!  ahaha...   ah, man.  I love the cinema of that description, sure... But, I'd dumb down all numbers, measures and/or degrees across that spectrum ... closer to spring variance as opposed to histrionic descriptive prose.

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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Nice!  ahaha...   ah, man.  I love the cinema of that description, sure... But, I'd dumb down all numbers, measures and/or degrees across that spectrum ... closer to spring variance as opposed to histrionic descriptive prose.

There is zero indication of summer in any modeling, definitely histrionics. Spring fer sure

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32 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

2 days before the double digit April 16 snow my average temp for the day was 6o degrees. The day of,it accumulated immediately 

Not responding to you in particular, Ginxy, just carrying the conversation... My ancedotal thoughts are it's easier for snow to stick in spring after a warm day as I'd think the ground is still quite cold regardless just under the surface. The grass is still dead and packed down from the winter snowpack too.  In like October I feel like the ground is still steaming warm, grass is green and lofty (trapping more warm air too).

Of course it's all intensity driven in the end, but the bookend seasons are where you start to have trouble with the .15-.25" every 6 hours type precip rates... in February it's 2-3" every 6 hours in 1-3sm -SN, when April it might be a coating to an inch every 6 hours.

I think ideally you want .1/hr type stuff to really have no concerns, or at least 0.5-.1"/hr sustained.  The 0.02-0.04"/hr stuff can be problematic.

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20 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I would be very angry if I was actually trying to do what I was there for. 

I'm sure the gondola was started early for the service, with skiing to begin at 8 AM or some such.  (And there's more than one way down the mountain from there.)

Nice sunrise service in Farmington (though the sun was behind clouds), with some goose music to accompany our pastor's message. 

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