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HimoorWx

Napril Fools? Pattern and Model Discussion . . .

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56 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I like the pattern, but no particular system has my interest piqued very much right now.

Again....not saying nothing will show up because it is a good pattern.

But as of now...not too enthused.

The Monday thing which is what my post was on, looks kind of meh. Agree later next week looks better. 

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46 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Interesting...never knew that.

Makes perfect sense late season Arctic air intrusions are most always a function of Teleconnections lining up

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51 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

I know you could careless but wicked Windex look next weekend prior to opportunity for a well organized system. Learned from the retiring Drag that late season Windex events often precede a larger organized system . Have had my eyes on the 9th 10th for a while, block breaking down and EPO retro.  If it's going to be something other than nuisance that would be the time.

 

Not doubting you, but are there any examples of this that you know of?

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7 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Not doubting you, but are there any examples of this that you know of?

Sure 4/4/82 An arctic front delivered a strong windex event which had rain which flipped to a half inch of snow 2 days later history was made.

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2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

They always do.

Hey man, it's not spring until I brush advisory level snow off my car on the way to the fantasy baseball draft. It's like clockwork.

Though this year we moved it way up to early March because some a-hole decided to have a baby shower (:bag:)

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5 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

It was only 2 years ago I had 6.8 of snow. Reading here you would think it's a one in a million shot. Pattern is conducive,  time will tell.

In my mind we have one window and that is next weekend.  If we get to 4/8 with nothing happening or on the way imminently Roy sings.

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7 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

The Monday thing which is what my post was on, looks kind of meh. Agree later next week looks better. 

Could get a rare two April snow event here, saw that happen in 1982 and 1996.

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1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Euro looks better next weekend.

Those 2-3"/6 hr rates will not cut it nearing mid April, though....especially in the lower elevations.

You need something like April 10, 1996 or April 7, 2003.  Don has actually been comparing that event to 4/7/03.  If we get the 2-4" being forecasted for Monday, we could have a rare 2 snowfall events in April.  That happened in 1982 and 1996.  Would be nice to see snow on the Yankees home opener (saw that last in 1996, though the 2003 home opener was "snowed out" because of snow the day before, as was the 1982 home opener.)

 

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7 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Sure 4/4/82 An arctic front delivered a strong windex event which had rain which flipped to a half inch of snow 2 days later history was made.

And a few days after that we had another snowfall event that delivered an inch of snow around the 9th-10th.

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late next week looks good for snowstorm for sne area for over six inches for all of inland ct and sne north of i 95 area including valley area and it will cold late next for april too ,

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15 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Nocturnal events much more beneficial than daytime.

 I prefer to see my snow fall. No thanks on the nocturnal cloud emissions.

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5 hours ago, Paragon said:

You need something like April 10, 1996 or April 7, 2003.  Don has actually been comparing that event to 4/7/03.  If we get the 2-4" being forecasted for Monday, we could have a rare 2 snowfall events in April.  That happened in 1982 and 1996.  Would be nice to see snow on the Yankees home opener (saw that last in 1996, though the 2003 home opener was "snowed out" because of snow the day before, as was the 1982 home opener.)

 

My recollection from 1982 is that the storm hit on the day of the Yanks' opener, not the day before.  I recall reading that at the time of the scheduled first pitch, NYC was reporting 25° with SN+ and 6" new.

And our area avoids WINDEX events like we do with warm season severe.  The last one here wasn't late season by the calendar (Jan. 28, 2010) but it was the last real powder we saw until the next winter.  Does that make it "late season?"

Had to laugh (hollowly) at the 06z gfs - while the GYX discussion talked of possible significant snow for the northerly portion of their AFD, that model run a torch-deluge with temps 50s to near60.

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22 minutes ago, Modfan said:

Have there been any SNE icing events in past Aprils?

Srn CT. April 2016. April 2003 had a little in the interior...even  slight glaze at the coast. 

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6 minutes ago, dendrite said:

That's quite a bit of QPF for such a meh s/w. There's barely a closed isobar at the surface. Nammy being nammy?

Probably. Although, there is strong fronto and a nice 850 LLJ to the south hitting a brick wall at 60kts.

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

12k and 3k are pretty good.

Yeah they aren’t bad... not sure they are anything to write home about during the day in April though... going to need something impressive down this way 

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