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HimoorWx

Napril Fools? Pattern and Model Discussion . . .

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3 minutes ago, #NoPoles said:

April 1990 was insane. We had an exchange student from Spain for the year and it was so hot we opened the pool for the Spanish kids. It was hilarious watching them react when their bodies hit the 50degree water

One of the few times ORH has hit 90F in April. 1990 and then the only other times were 1976 and 2002.

 

edit: The pre-airport site did it in 1941 also.

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1 hour ago, OceanStWx said:

It's the truth really. I don't need to get out of town in January or February, I need to get out in April. Most years I feel like I could delete that month and be fine.

Oh I know ...jesus H -

I realize folks are reminiscing about warm Aprils of lore but those are like 1 in 10 year deals ...or I dunno - what is the return rate on (subjectively) decent Aprils.  For starters.. it can be anything like the first 7 days of this month, this year... 

I was musing over this a couple hours ago..this is akin to September 8th sun.  Can you imagine the fervor around this particular collection of internet/social media denizens/special interest group if we put up at stunted high temperature of 35 in full September 8th sun?  Granted ...seasons lag ...most years.  But this is getting a bit ridic - won't break any records... just keep in uninteresting while maximizing the misery for those that have long accepted and popped the delusion bubble over snow and cold dreams. 

But we'll see.. about the only upshot of the Euro ruining the warm up is that it's D8+ so...  reasonably good chance (haha) whatever solution comes out next won't even look that way. 

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NSR, but the moisture river about to crash into Southern and Central California is impressive. Snow levels are going to be at 11,000'. Mammoth is forecast to get 2-4" of rain.

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49 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Topped out mid 30s at ORH today despite full sun...that is pretty hard to do in April. Not quite the feat of April 5, 1995 hitting only 26F under full sun, but mid 30s is still pretty nasty...esp with the wind.

LCI at 1pm that day. No thanks.

METAR KLCI 051700Z 27019G35KT 10SM SCT060 M08/M23 A2972 RMK SLPNO T10781228

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4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Oh I know ...jesus H -

I realize folks are reminiscing about warm Aprils of lore but those are like 1 in 10 year deals ...or I dunno - what is the return rate on (subjectively) decent Aprils.  For starters.. it can be anything like the first 7 days of this month, this year... 

I was musing over this a couple hours ago..this is akin to September 8th sun.  Can you imagine the fervor around this particular collection of internet/social media denizens/special interest group if we put up at stunted high temperature of 35 in full September 8th sun?  Granted ...seasons lag ...most years.  But this is getting a bit ridic - won't break any records... just keep in uninteresting while maximizing the misery for those that have long accepted and popped the delusion bubble over snow and cold dreams. 

But we'll see.. about the only upshot of the Euro ruining the warm up is that it's D8+ so...  reasonably good chance (haha) whatever solution comes out next won't even look that way. 

I think a lot of us if we had the financial means and no job obligations would disappear around April 1st and not return until probably the 3rd or 4th week of May.

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

I think a lot of us if we had the financial means and no job obligations would disappear around April 1st and not return until probably the 3rd or 4th week of May.

Some would make sure they are back in time for 5/1 to catch severe season.

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2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Some would make sure they are back in time for 5/1 to catch severe season.

Severe drizzle season?

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Ya Ray was pretty certain on January 4th....

you are that excited?  January 4th and April 10 are about as opposite as it can get as far as climo goes for snow in SNE while still being possible...I know you know that..so if you’re that pumped, I’d love to hear why/the details! 

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Better than a couple years ago when we had long unusual warm and everything came along too early and we had three days with 15 degree lows and at least one day not above freezing.  Apple and pear buds looked like somebody had taken a blowtorch to them.  Burned and fell off.  At least when it finally warms up this year it'll be harder to turn back.

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26 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

I am probably as gung go for next week as Ray was for Jan 4. Something about the set up 

Good luck. 

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3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Ya Ray was pretty certain on January 4th....

you are that excited?  January 4th and April 10 are about as opposite as it can get as far as climo goes for snow in SNE while still being possible...I know you know that..so if you’re that pumped, I’d love to hear why/the details! 

I like the 5H setup, think intensity 990 or below is there. Climo isn't a factor for this setup.  Feel that the trough sharpens the flow slows too with a transient block ahead of the syatem . Just like the look. ENS members are close enough to something big. You see the potential in various models. I like it today is all I can say. Will it pan out? Who knows

index (8).png

index (9).png

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In April...always a good bet To bet against a huge event...so much that needs to go right to get a huge winter storm this late.

But the pattern is definitely a good one...would be a great way to wrap this season up. 

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33 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

In April...always a good bet To bet against a huge event...so much that needs to go right to get a huge winter storm this late.

But the pattern is definitely a good one...would be a great way to wrap this season up. 

I just dont think the seasonal totals will get that high.

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to many gave up on the weekend storm cmc and gfs  has stronger and more nw storm than 12 zrun . So dont count it out yet . same people say dont trust models say its going out to sea because models say well  dont trust them .

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1 hour ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Saturday is dead... but the gfs cmc and icon all produce a coastal storm early Sunday that goes se of the area. 

Hadnt seen that before... could that be something to watch?

Euro similar too. I'd watch that in SE areas.

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5 hours ago, blizzard24 said:

to many gave up on the weekend storm cmc and gfs  has stronger and more nw storm than 12 zrun . So dont count it out yet . same people say dont trust models say its going out to sea because models say well  dont trust them .

The weekend threat is dead for most.. 6z GFS moved a little closer if I was on the cape I would watch it..

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