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Napril Fools? Pattern and Model Discussion . . .


HimoorWx

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Just another double digit departure day to end out April, so apropos. Thank god this is over for a while. Saturday was so awesome such a tease. Shorts and Tees rest of the week, too bad most will be working. Hopefully Tippys Friday works out, would be nice to sit by the lake casting a few and downing a few.

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4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

And this is a scenario between today and Wednesday ...well, late Tuesday afternoon actually, where your hyperbole is actually not so hyperbolic :) 

Seriously Kevin, I've been pretty taken back by the rate of change that is flat out in the numbers/synoptics from the NAM/Euro/GGEM... all of which agree that tomorrow's transition across just 12 to 18 hours ends up worlds apart.    Talking 2-meter temps around +5 C at most sites at dawn tomorrow, ...perhaps some ground fog and dank strata gray skies to add to the glum ...then, all the way to 22 C at HFD (possibly higher), possibly as far E as Logan/E zones of SNE by 6 pm.  We've seen that sort of temp turn around just from diurnals but... this is cross through a warm front during the day...  a dry subtle one that caries a distinct difference in the 'feel' and even smell of the air. 

There is a fantastically artsy example there of a warm front/difused warm front rapidly accelerating E across the area...Should whisk east of CT/W MA by 18z and the remainder of E by 21z. The air mass ushered in is very well mixed after efficient heating upstream, and that air floods in for a late high.

The temp doesn't fall appreciably Tuesday night... I bet it stays mid 50s regardless of MOS in that synoptic look, with perhaps a 47 or two in the country where some modest decoupling takes place.  But the gradient is rich enough to keep the atmosphere well mixed deep into the overnight... and MOS' climate modulating may not see the anomaly here. Which sets us up to a refresher course with May sun angles..and what that can do on Wednesday. That temp is going to absolutely bottle rocket...  Talking 86 F (I think... quite doable) at HFD to BED between the tarmacs, bank clocks, parking lots and traffic jams... DPs are initially going to be low ,... and so, with low turbidity skies and that sun, we probably maximize +14 C at 850 and even possibly get the boundary layer thickness taller than that by some... So, it's one of those situations where we may actually over-achieve on the actual dawn sounding for max temperatures, due to diurnal modulation/physics of super-adiabatic mixing... yadda yadda. It's a minor distinction but one where the MOS (I don't think) especially considers that sort of nuance, and it may account for 2 or even 3 F over top those machine guidance source.  

I figure 86 or 87 both Wed and Thur ... with wild-card Friday but... I think the front is timed well to allow much of Friday to continue with efficient heat ..so we'll see.  

One thing about that front Friday night... The Euro and now the GGEM is hinting...that boundary rapidly decays and washes out.  The Euro has a more important trough digging into the GL, and that washes out the support for the boundary and renders the whole region of NE still in a deep layer SW flow on Saturday... So, that's sort of entered a chance that Saturday may yet be a bit above normal.  

Yeah and just about everyone can’t wait for this heat. Flora will explode. Scooter’s  kids will be writing their names and drawing pictures in the pollen all over his furniture with his windows wide open , since he didn’t install. 

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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Yeah and just about everyone can’t wait for this heat. Flora will explode. Scooter’s  kids will be writing their names and drawing pictures in the pollen all over his furniture with his windows wide open , since he didn’t install. 

I know, I should treat my house like it's a bunker. Keep everything shut, shades closed.

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10 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Baby leave? Man times have changed, how long do you get for that now a days. Congrats man so awesome.

FMLA mandates 3 months for any employee in the US working for a company with at least 50 employees.  But it is only paid (government workers) if there is vacation or sick time unused on the books. Worked well for me in 1999 and I took 7-8 weeks off paid.

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4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yeah and just about everyone can’t wait for this heat. Flora will explode. Scooter’s  kids will be writing their names and drawing pictures in the pollen all over his furniture with his windows wide open , since he didn’t install. 

I think the warm numbers while the DPs are still relatively low is key ;)    haha

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5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I know, I should treat my house like it's a bunker. Keep everything shut, shades closed.

Only green here is some small bottom shrubs and the occasional Maple with small buds, going to be a week or so before pollen issues and then its not that  pre summer air born stuff, some know some don't. I can't wait to open all the windows and feel the natural warmth of the last month of spring, should be awesome.

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3 minutes ago, weathafella said:

FMLA mandates 3 months for any employee in the US working for a company with at least 50 employees.  But it is only paid (government workers) if there is vacation or sick time unused on the books. Worked well for me in 1999 and I took 7-8 weeks off paid.

I can't stress how important this time off is. This isn't club med for guys. I know with my kids, I only had 3 weeks off paid (could have had more if I dipped into PTO)..but every minute was worth it.

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3 minutes ago, weathafella said:

FMLA mandates 3 months for any employee in the US working for a company with at least 50 employees.  But it is only paid (government workers) if there is vacation or sick time unused on the books. Worked well for me in 1999 and I took 7-8 weeks off paid.

Yea I know, been upper level mgmt for 14 years now. Man you got a lot of vacation time back in 99

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I can't stress how important this time off is. This isn't club med for guys. I know with my kids, I only had 3 weeks off paid (could have had more if I dipped into PTO)..but every minute was worth it.

LOL Daddy days, so don't miss that hourly struggle, hang in there bro it goes by so fast. I suggest daily excursions with the stroller.

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1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Yea I know, been upper level mgmt for 14 years now. Man you got a lot of vacation time back in 99

Didn’t use any vacation.  But I had 14 years accumulated sick time and until recently with more stuff going on (now into my 70s) almost never used it.  They add it to your time in service so there’s an incentive to only use sick time when necessary.  I was a peon in 1999 but the leave structure is the same management or otherwise.

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1 minute ago, weathafella said:

I think I’ll need ac at night.  Master br on the top floor on the sunny side of the street may be too warm otherwise.  I will uncover the compressor after work tonight.

Low dews, window fan will be all you need, temps cool off quickly at sunset. I doubt your house gets above 75. I thought you liked heat old man

Plotter.png

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14 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Obviously not today and yesterday...but, we are getting elevated pollen numbers due to continental transport though ... just because we don't see our our own flora doing the deed, it's out there.  

Check your car, if there's pollen on it let me know.

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

If they're older, they probably feel that way..lol.

My biggest issue if I was to be in the same situation as I was in the early 80s with kids,  would be my work load when I got back. As it is now if I take any time off my phone is constantly ringing or emails, texts. In 3.5 years I will sever the ties for good. I ain't gonna waste the last years of my life beholden to anyone. The calendar is checked off daily now.

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