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Napril Fools? Pattern and Model Discussion . . .


HimoorWx

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3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Wish Mitch had a cam so I could see just how much I'm glad I don't live there this morning.

Just a slushy trace on my car this morning but every 3rd car seems to have a pasting on it.  Accums start around 1000ft.  Looking up at the ski area it looks plastered.

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2 hours ago, moneypitmike said:

Another day of the stove.  I never would have guessed back in February that I'd have gone through as much wood as I have this year.

I was lazy so turned on the furnace last night but I am well into what should have been some of next years wood.

 Looking forward to some summer weather this week!

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11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Of note is the discussion was 85-90 with a few Macs potentially tickling 90 . Posts started flying even 80’s may not happen from the jesters 

Like 90% of guidance has eastern Hillsborough County, NH with an average high temp > 80 on Wed, so that looks about a lock.

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3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

link? I don't remember anyone saying we wouldn't hit 80s for a couple of days, did you install your AC?

Sorry, it's an internal tool we can run over a specified area to pull stats about any variable. It makes a pretty sweet box and whisker plot of the variable too to show you the range and where your forecast falls.

No installing this year, we got one of those portable AC units. So maybe you could say we install and uninstall every day?

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Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Baby leave? Man times have changed, how long do you get for that now a days. Congrats man so awesome.

The Family Medical Leave Act allows me 12 weeks if I want it, but somebody has to get paid to I'll take the first 6 weeks an reevaluate from there.

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1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

Sorry, it's an internal tool we can run over a specified area to pull stats about any variable. It makes a pretty sweet box and whisker plot of the variable too to show you the range and where your forecast falls.

No installing this year, we got one of those portable AC units. So maybe you could say we install and uninstall every day?

that was supposed to be a response to whine butt but somehow responded to you

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2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

One more day and then ..

Suddenly , it’s summer.

We almost there 

And this is a scenario between today and Wednesday ...well, late Tuesday afternoon actually, where your hyperbole is actually not so hyperbolic :) 

Seriously Kevin, I've been pretty taken back by the rate of change that is flat out in the numbers/synoptics from the NAM/Euro/GGEM... all of which agree that tomorrow's transition across just 12 to 18 hours ends up worlds apart.    Talking 2-meter temps around +5 C at most sites at dawn tomorrow, ...perhaps some ground fog and dank strata gray skies to add to the glum ...then, all the way to 22 C at HFD (possibly higher), possibly as far E as Logan/E zones of SNE by 6 pm.  We've seen that sort of temp turn around just from diurnals but... this is cross through a warm front during the day...  a dry subtle one that caries a distinct difference in the 'feel' and even smell of the air. 

There is a fantastically artsy example there of a warm front/difused warm front rapidly accelerating E across the area...Should whisk east of CT/W MA by 18z and the remainder of E by 21z. The air mass ushered in is very well mixed after efficient heating upstream, and that air floods in for a late high.

The temp doesn't fall appreciably Tuesday night... I bet it stays mid 50s regardless of MOS in that synoptic look, with perhaps a 47 or two in the country where some modest decoupling takes place.  But the gradient is rich enough to keep the atmosphere well mixed deep into the overnight... and MOS' climate modulating may not see the anomaly here. Which sets us up to a refresher course with May sun angles..and what that can do on Wednesday. That temp is going to absolutely bottle rocket...  Talking 86 F (I think... quite doable) at HFD to BED between the tarmacs, bank clocks, parking lots and traffic jams... DPs are initially going to be low ,... and so, with low turbidity skies and that sun, we probably maximize +14 C at 850 and even possibly get the boundary layer thickness taller than that by some... So, it's one of those situations where we may actually over-achieve on the actual dawn sounding for max temperatures, due to diurnal modulation/physics of super-adiabatic mixing... yadda yadda. It's a minor distinction but one where the MOS (I don't think) especially considers that sort of nuance, and it may account for 2 or even 3 F over top those machine guidance source.  

I figure 86 or 87 both Wed and Thur ... with wild-card Friday but... I think the front is timed well to allow much of Friday to continue with efficient heat ..so we'll see.  

One thing about that front Friday night... The Euro and now the GGEM is hinting...that boundary rapidly decays and washes out.  The Euro has a more important trough digging into the GL, and that washes out the support for the boundary and renders the whole region of NE still in a deep layer SW flow on Saturday... So, that's sort of entered a chance that Saturday may yet be a bit above normal.  

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