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Napril Fools? Pattern and Model Discussion . . .


HimoorWx

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32 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I mean ... if it snowed heavy today and you looked out there at glop-cling you'd think it was January 20 if it wasn't for that one or two bushes thumbing noses to the erstwhile cold - 

This is really sort of the antithesis to that March green up we had back in ... I wanna say '09 ?   That year, we had broad leaf sugar maples in near full leaf by the first week of April and were two cycles of lawn mowing into the cutting season by the end of March. Insane.  ... Just putting this one against that year...  I remember shooting out at lunch break with an office colleague on like April 7 and it was 84 with TCU.  

You know what's interesting... it seems the color season is much more fixed than this front side..  Every year I hear people say, 'boy the colors seem late'... Yet, come hell or high water, it always peaks here on the 17th of October, regardless.

I think I had some green up even up here in 2012 after those 5 days in mid March of 70s and 80s. 2010 was pretty warm too.

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3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I think I had some green up even up here in 2012 after those 5 days in mid March of 70s and 80s. 2010 was pretty warm too.

Lol... in 2012 we had a green up in November after the October snow storm...  Not full of course... But yeah, springs have been odd .. very early ...very late...

Wasn't the 2nd half of April 2015 warm?  after it was 19 F for a high on the Equinox with still the bulk mass of the snow pack in place, three weeks later it was 80 or something like that... 

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The turn around between next Tuesday and next Wednesday is pretty astounding for pure sensible weather on this Euro run.  -4 850s with wrapped moisture and couldn't even rule out some grapple and/or cat paws in cold pool showers during the afternoon ... 24 hours later?  it could be 80 with and nearly perfect laminar west flow, under 850s that sore a total of 16 C.  Full sun....   The Euro's been hitting that transition really hard, and I think it is possible ...and the GFS is doing it's typical least excuse imagined to retard warmth in the later range thing - 

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

The Norwegian maples are getting the green buds and about to leaf out. Definitely behind though. 

I noticed a pretty big difference once inside 128 on the drive into work today...esp a few miles past the 95/93 split...you have those green cluster-buds on some of the maples whereas back home it was nuclear wasteland look. That means it's gonna happen quickly though in the next week.

It's still really late though...2016 was ahead at this point but it did slow down again with a week-long wheel-o-rhea to start the month of May. Still, we will need a very fast leaf-out to catch even the sluggish 2016.

 

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I wonder if it's up to the same thing this year... where it gets hot early then fades the rest of the way?

Last year it came a week or 10 days earlier. We were 90 over Easter weekend (which came late in the last week of April).  Then, the rest of the summer sucked.  Oh,.. it got warm ..even hot on a couple of occasions - to some - but the cruel thickness bulges always sunk S before getting up here and for that, the summer never really did deliver the good cooking. 

I'm curious if this is the best looking pattern from Wed-Satu... then the rest of the summer we have a January pattern on a July geopotential medium again..  

 

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24 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I noticed a pretty big difference once inside 128 on the drive into work today...esp a few miles past the 95/93 split...you have those green cluster-buds on some of the maples whereas back home it was nuclear wasteland look. That means it's gonna happen quickly though in the next week.

It's still really late though...2016 was ahead at this point but it did slow down again with a week-long wheel-o-rhea to start the month of May. Still, we will need a very fast leaf-out to catch even the sluggish 2016.

 

 Those maples tend  to love inside 128 for some reason. You go away from the more urban areas and they don’t exist as much as they do near Boston.

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although... i will add, they give off a real sweet aroma that seems to attract bees ... when i think of spring, i often have memories of those green flowers they have in the interim between bud crack and actual leaves, with bees buzzing and probing ...with the sound of thunder somewhere off in the distance. 

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43 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

 Those maples tend  to love inside 128 for some reason. You go away from the more urban areas and they don’t exist as much as they do near Boston.

From what I've noticed the silvers go first then the reds, sugars are always last to bud. I've seen bigger buds in March on some of the reds/silvers around here but they are starting to really pop fast now. 

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10 hours ago, moneypitmike said:

By far the latest leaf-out I can recall.  Not a single tree looks remotely close to it.  I suspect it's all going to explode at once when thinks finally kick in.

 

6 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Looks like a nuclear wasteland out there.

Same here. It doesn't seem like it was anomalously cold though. Maybe we're in a drought? (I think the average here per year is 30-35", not 40-45" like before).

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1 hour ago, wx2fish said:

From what I've noticed the silvers go first then the reds, sugars are always last to bud. I've seen bigger buds in March on some of the reds/silvers around here but they are starting to really pop fast now. 

yup, red m's, silver, sugar m's, oak ... pretty much in that order spanning three weeks.   The suger maples can be somewhat more variable than the others - must be a younger evolutionary species?  it seems to respond more to temperature variations across all for of those, where the other three seem more fixed... although red m's may vary some too.  

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3 hours ago, wx2fish said:

From what I've noticed the silvers go first then the reds, sugars are always last to bud. I've seen bigger buds in March on some of the reds/silvers around here but they are starting to really pop fast now. 

I suppose it's the sugars, but I noticed even after Mem Day they are not fully matured leaf out.

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Also, there is certainly a difference here locally compared to more rural areas even to my south. My folks always comment how far ahead we are here at my house, and they also radiate well. I do not radiate. So, I assume that warmer night temps are giving us a boost here locally.

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3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Also, there is certainly a difference here locally compared to more rural areas even to my south. My folks always comment how far ahead we are here at my house, and they also radiate well. I do not radiate. So, I assume that warmer night temps are giving us a boost here locally.

Yeah I was trying to be more observant on the drive home today and noticed that even in small pockets west of 128 I would see more activity. Usually it was near some intersection that looked like it prob didn't radiate. Then I'd continue to another area and it would go back to looking like a nuclear craters landscape. 

My neighborhood is def still nuclear craters. 

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6 hours ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

 

Same here. It doesn't seem like it was anomalously cold though. Maybe we're in a drought? (I think the average here per year is 30-35", not 40-45" like before).

Seemed pretty cold... though coldest anomalies were further west and north in New England.  Local sites around here are running -6.0 (MVL) to -6.9 (1V4) for the month of April.  A significantly below normal month everywhere so far. 

The midwest though is crazy with those -10 to -15 monthly departures.

April_2018.png.a533c36e95cf8b00dc4b705a888c6cbc.png

 

 

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7 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah I was trying to be more observant on the drive home today and noticed that even in small pockets west of 128 I would see more activity. Usually it was near some intersection that looked like it prob didn't radiate. Then I'd continue to another area and it would go back to looking like a nuclear craters landscape. 

My neighborhood is def still nuclear craters. 

Yeah it’s an interesting time of year when you notice these things. It sounds like you have some hard maples or oaks which are usually slow to leaf out. You have any evergreens there?

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Seems as though this happens often enough in spring around this part of the world to almost expect it from year to year. 

You get a winter --> summer week. 

For all intents and purposes, this cold pool and cut-off slated to gyre across our skies from late Sunday through early /mid-day Tuesday is winter.. Then, what an abrupt change between Tuesday and Wednesday!

It depends just how fast the western arc of the cut-off and its associated cold pool finally pass of shore.  The GGEM offers 2-meter temperatures popping to 64-ish across much of SNE - already a 20 to 25 F turn around in 24 hours at that time.  But, should that delay a little ... the temperature curve at most home stations and the officials could show a steady 24-hour rise from 4 pm to 4pm the next day.  Either way, the 2-day turn around is on the order of 45 F!

The GFS MOS products are dimming the numbers relative to the Euro and GGEM synoptics/thermal layouts... But ..we all know that the GFS' boundary layer depictions for temperature are an ongoing cause for embarrassment.  It's hard to know where that bias ends and the model perhaps keying on actual reasons to do so, begins. It's probable also that MOS' climate normalization is the issue here, too.  Tuesday it actually puts up 72 which is sort of actually above - hm

That said, I'd watch Thursday ... The GGEM has a bit of a low scooting east of eastern Ontario from 126 through 140 hours, and a small bubble of high pressure behind replacing... It wouldn't take much at all to formulate that small bubble into a mass-drive for a BD to come cutting SW and no ...the models wouldn't necessarily event depict that at this time.  Just something to look for.  The Euro has the 120 + wave moving east of Ontario to, but is less interested in building much back side +PP at all ... Some of the other non-dependable (admittedly) model types are aggressive tho..including that 06z ICON model... goodness!  It's like 80 Wed, 49 Thursday when the other models are trying ping 87. 

The problem with this warm up is, despite the persistence/perceived continuity from the bevy of guidance types over the last several days ... the flow is till inordinately fast over top the ridge arc across southern and southeastern Canada. Usually the boundaries of these ridges are not as steeply gradated. There are still cold heights relative to the burgeoning warmth S of the 40th parallel existing across Canada, and that is causing the mid tropospheric balanced winds to really be unusually strong and organized into planetary wave configurations. Usually by now those L/W structures are tending to break and sever off into nebularity...  For whatever reason, the atmosphere's inability to uptake thermal resonance from the sun is a palpable observation this year ... fascinating really. 

Whatever the cause, those jet mechanics raging like that so close near by is a wild-card for everything from correcting warm sector penetration to lower latitudes, to ceiling/cloud management issue...to BD... etc. 

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4 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah it’s an interesting time of year when you notice these things. It sounds like you have some hard maples or oaks which are usually slow to leaf out. You have any evergreens there?

Yeah we have a few spruce trees and def a lot of white pines.  

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29 minutes ago, White Rain said:

I believe both trees in the picture are Norweigen, the back one is massive with 4’ diameter. It shades out all vegetation, which is a big part of why they are considered harmful invasive. It feeds off a stream on our property. Nice for expanding the yard and creating a shaded area for the kids to run around and play.

I looked at the wrong image. Yeah the first one looks more like it. No green buds yet? 

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