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Napril Fools? Pattern and Model Discussion . . .

HimoorWx

By HimoorWx,
in New England

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
11 hours ago, tamarack said:

I'd reverse those departures, as temps are far more variable in winter than in summer.  I've yet to see a day 20° AN or BN in met summer - it's happened at the Farmington co-op, but their 125-year record dwarfs my 20.  In met winter (plus March) I've had a handful of days 30°+ BN and 25°+ AN.  My average max in deep winter is 26-27, and so 31-32 doesn't feel torchy at all, but >40 is getting there.  My average midsummer max is 77, and 15° above that is only 1° from the hottest I've had here.  In my well-forested (thus transpirationally cooled) locale, 85 is torch enough for me.  I've had summers that never got there, and few that have hit that mark 10 times or more.  As you noted, it's entirely subjective.

:D

You're being far too mathematical...    What you are saying in terms of variability arguments is climatologically clad and true. However, as I tried to paint the previous perspective... "subjectivity" -

Meaning, it's whenever hot(cold) departure at hand interferes with one's personal purposes and agenda as weather hobbyists (which is a menagerie of reasons for involvement, ranging from science ... all the way around the dial to .S.A.D. and ANTI-.S.A.D. neurois ..ha)

Anyway, in January...the tongue in cheek there is that it takes about +5 to really seriously f-up a winter/snow month at our latitudes...so, the subjective tolerance breaks down at a lower anomaly scale and thus ...torch enters the fray (haha).  

Contrasting... in July?  Meh...it can be +8 and no one cares ... even to the lay folk that don't hobby in this pass time would hardly take notice... But, get it +15 ... ?  In order to do that you gotta be roasting enough to effect on folks' will to be out of doors and then they start the water cooler complaining at the office, as well as firing up threads about "what's ur favorite snow storm" - heh.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

Interesting observation on the models for me... as to the 00z cycle.

The GFS and Euro seem to be switched bias' here.  The GFS is the more N-S meridian amplified with the ridge, as well.. placing it's circumvellate node of tallest heights farther N too compared to the Euro, which wants the ridge to be more part of the sub-tropical band with a bulge displaced into the westerlies over top.  

The GFS version would support 90 with that configuration and amplitude with the geopotential medium, as the thicnkness would have carte blanche range for expansion... However, and typical for the GFS... it never takes advantage of that spatial relationship between the thickness DM and the g--potential heights. It's always dimming the lower troposphere toward the coolest plausible result relative to everything that it can find.   

The Euro version would not support 90... It's probably a better solution "within its self" ...but, it could still over all be under-doing the ridge ... just because we're still talking D6+ out to 10 (duh).  

So there's multiple moving parts in each solution to consider there ...error corrections for biases both native to longer term modeling performance, and relative to that single run-cycle its self. 

For now, I think a "warmer pattern" is the course of least regret and we'll leave magnitude alone for the time being. 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

you know... it's not really "cold" tomorrow despite the rain. 

I wonder, do some of us have this sort of branded image of rain that it's going to be this 39 F misery ... if for no other reason, that's been unrelenting ...  This isn't sleet pellets and cat-paw rains ... it's like in the mid 50s ... upper 40s in the hills... Not exactly "nice" of course, but it's more like what spring rain is supposed to be. 

Noticing the profiles support 70 F on Thursday with a decent amount of sun..  Meh, we've been sunny and sere for four days - probably should get some rain here. 

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WinterWolf

WinterWolf

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I believe I said rain in the PM

Well Perhaps, but the idea you put out there was that it wasn't supposed to be a good day today...and we were only in for about a day and a half of decent weather from Saturday through today according to your thoughts.   

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Cold Miser

Cold Miser

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Well Perhaps, but the idea you put out there was that it wasn't supposed to be a good day today...and we were only in for about a day and a half of decent weather from Saturday through today according to your thoughts.   

 

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

That’s not the idea I put out. Misinterpretation ftl

DIT and Winter Wolfman Jack

DIT01.jpg

DIT02.jpg

DIT03.jpg

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WinterWolf

WinterWolf

Posted
Posted
On 4/20/2018 at 10:45 AM, dendrite said:
On 4/20/2018 at 10:30 AM, Damage In Tolland said:

Rain moves in later Tuesday afternoon. We really only a day and a half 

 

On 4/20/2018 at 10:35 AM, Typhoon Tip said:

things could certainly accelerate in real time compared to what the 00z models displayed ...but for WHAT they actually displayed, there's not much support for this panned statement -

 

On 4/20/2018 at 10:33 AM, WinterWolf said:

I'm thinking the rain holds off till at least Tuesday late night...Tuesday as of now should be pretty decent/mild.  Obviously could change going forward...but as of now any rain holds off till later in the night/Wed morning.

Low 60s at BDL Sunday with full sun. Even tomorrow will be relatively nice.

Oh not so fast there DIT.....your ideas were wrong on every count.  

 

And that last quote was from Dendrite...because he too was saying that we had a nice stretch of weather incoming...not just a "day and a half."

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tamarack

tamarack

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

:D

You're being far too mathematical...    What you are saying in terms of variability arguments is climatologically clad and true. However, as I tried to paint the previous perspective... "subjectivity" -

Meaning, it's whenever hot(cold) departure at hand interferes with one's personal purposes and agenda as weather hobbyists (which is a menagerie of reasons for involvement, ranging from science ... all the way around the dial to .S.A.D. and ANTI-.S.A.D. neurois ..ha)

Anyway, in January...the tongue in cheek there is that it takes about +5 to really seriously f-up a winter/snow month at our latitudes...so, the subjective tolerance breaks down at a lower anomaly scale and thus ...torch enters the fray (haha).  

Contrasting... in July?  Meh...it can be +8 and no one cares ... even to the lay folk that don't hobby in this pass time would hardly take notice... But, get it +15 ... ?  In order to do that you gotta be roasting enough to effect on folks' will to be out of doors and then they start the water cooler complaining at the office, as well as firing up threads about "what's ur favorite snow storm" - heh.

You're far from the first to lay this accusation at me.  :lol:   Guilty as charged! 
My latitude being about 200 miles closer to the pole (and farther inland) means that +5 won't ruin anything, but is about where the best storms take place - though the best storms here rarely come in January - Of my 16 storms of 15"+ in 20 winters here, just 1 (2015) came in Jan.  The rest: D:3, F:5; M:5; A:2.  For 37 storms 10"+, the scores are: N:1; D:8; J:4; F:9; M:12; A:3.  (At least Jan beats Apr at this level.)

And my subjective take on summer heat is that +10 hits my personal "torch" threshold.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
23 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Euro looks amazing for later next week...could grab some 80s. Hopefully it isn't a faux ridge.

Exactly ... That's been the rub ...as it should be when tracking the most fragile aspect of atmospheric features, ridges...to mention.. like over week's time away. 

I can't count any longer how many times I've tracked this sort of ordeal in extended guidance and push comes to shove... it turns out to be a flatter scenario with the westerlies cheese-grading the top of it down to about 18 to 24 hours of windy warm sector ... which is nice...don't get me wrong...but it wouldn't be a static three to four day thing. 

 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

Probably should keep an eye out for the west Atlantic ...  something like the 18Z GFS/12Z GGEM may not have as much support by more popular tools, but something like that or the blend cannot be ruled out. I don't see any reason why that can't happen with a cut off wobbling west - not so climatologically unsound either.  If something like that even sniffs realization you can shelve those Euro numbers for the time being.

Amazing how aggressive the Euro is with this ridge and I don't like it frankly... I've seen the Euro too robust with both forms of meridian flow structures in this time range.  I mean not always, just sayn'. Last summer shirked us heat waves on multiple occasions out of very promising looking extended ranges and the Euro led the way on a some of those.   Because of that I'm a bit jaded...

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