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Napril Fools? Pattern and Model Discussion . . .


HimoorWx

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4 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Kevin needs to be forcibly stationed in an adobe hut somewhere within a mile immediately adjacent to a Louisiana bayou out amid a field of stinging nettles and clouds of biting insects from circa July 1 through August 15 ... if he survives, it will be an interesting interview.  If he doesn't ... well ... either way, an increment of sanity is most likely reclaimed for thus of us that bear his supposed perspectives on summer dew points - 

Not that anyone asked, but I feel about high summer heat about like I do about ice storms?  I don't want - personally - either, but, I am fascinated by the atmospheric mechanics that engender those disparate phenomena. 

With ice storms ... the novelty and awesomeness of liquid changing phases and encasing exposed physicality ... disappears real fast when the lights go out.  I mean, let's face it ..we engage in this oft at times, unhealthy diversion/hobby ...not so much for Meteorological science - though there are some of those amongst us.. We engage for the cinema of the dramatic events.  Well, ice storms that approach the threshold are like going to see the great cinematic work from 1940. "Fantasia" ...and having either the sound, or video components of the recording, fail.  I mean ..if you want to find yourself standing there in an aura of no options but contemplating .. ultimately, capitulating to uncertainty ... than you're a truly rare breed - that's the polite way of saying it.   There really is nothing when standing in the dark, except those pining realizations in the quantum moment whenever you think of something else to do but are instead paused with the fact that everything you come up with ... can't happen. Oops. 

Heat has really less value to me when its inescapable ... You can only take so many clothes off - for the majority of us...taking any off is socially flat out unacceptable. Heh. But to get away from torrid afternoons...and when that extends into the evening... ? Basically, it's just as preventative for enjoying the outside as 50 mph winds in heavy sleet. So...you're relegated to indoors during the 'outdoor' season, and that makes summer even more futile than it is at a base-line anyway for those that loath nice weather in their coveted NEGATIVE S.A.D. condition.  Plus... big heat usually comes with a complete suppression of clouds, so as Brian sort of intimated... what are you doing? Nothing but sweating... perhaps if not probably effecting health in negative ways do to air quality and other erosive concerns to well-being and again, if that is the state of affairs you seek, .. than you're a truly a rare breed. 

My own insanity is that I am interested in the atmospheric events that unfold that bring either of those actually unsavory experiences to bear. It takes a 'compartmentalized thinking' approach to appreciate that lasher. Particularly ... with heat, I don't think that heat wave mechanics get recognized and or scienced enough.  You can see them in the charts days before they evolve... Typically, a +PNAP effectively 'caps' the heat and dams it back SW over the SW... Then, some sort of west-central Pacific Rosby wiggle takes place, and that sends a roll-out down stream and the PNAP flips signs... Heights descend slightly in summer, more so earlier in spring, toward the California coast, and that topples said dam - out comes the plume(s) of super charged air.  Whether those get suppressed farther E of 100 W ..or, Canada favors the transport toward the 45th parallel, that's what controls whether we get run-of-the-mill heat of summer ridging in the east, versus something special getting rattled around in there.  It's sort of similar to EML expulsions but ... not exactly; we are looking for that critical 22 C + air mass plume(s) in the 850 mb sigma level.  They tend to come together at times, but not always. 

 

When I would spend summers in Texas in the early to mid 1990s, I had an odd fascination with heat. I used to root for those air masses that would come out of the Chihuahuan desert in far west Texas and northern mexico...anytime the flow was more N,E, SE or S I would get grumpy because I knew that high temps would prob top out mid 90s to maybe upper 90s in Austin...but when we had the flow out of WSW or SW...we could make a run at the 99-103 range. The type of heat down there also sort of numbed me to any heat waves in New England...people would start going nuts here when the high was forecasted to be 95F and to me that was a "disappointing" day in Austin in July. I used to not mind the heat at all due to my summer exposure to it...but now I've grown more and more to hate it. Give me 80F and that's plenty for me. Warm enough to swim, play some golf, go for a hike, etc. 

Anyways, the euro ensembles do look quite warm to our south for the first few days of May before cooling again...however, right now I think we prob miss out on it in that depiction. The GEFS are a bit more enthusiastic. 

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59 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

When I would spend summers in Texas in the early to mid 1990s, I had an odd fascination with heat. I used to root for those air masses that would come out of the Chihuahuan desert in far west Texas and northern mexico...anytime the flow was more N,E, SE or S I would get grumpy because I knew that high temps would prob top out mid 90s to maybe upper 90s in Austin...but when we had the flow out of WSW or SW...we could make a run at the 99-103 range. The type of heat down there also sort of numbed me to any heat waves in New England...people would start going nuts here when the high was forecasted to be 95F and to me that was a "disappointing" day in Austin in July. I used to not mind the heat at all due to my summer exposure to it...but now I've grown more and more to hate it. Give me 80F and that's plenty for me. Warm enough to swim, play some golf, go for a hike, etc. 

Anyways, the euro ensembles do look quite warm to our south for the first few days of May before cooling again...however, right now I think we prob miss out on it in that depiction. The GEFS are a bit more enthusiastic. 

 

Yeah I should probably add ... I'm not hugely confident of it.. just that it's really kind of the first time this season there's been any signal at all... The 12z operational Euro tries a ridge rollout a bit more..but something interesting between the 00z and 12z cycles; the last three days of which have seen the heights/mean band of westerlies deeper and farther S on the 12z..then flips back to a more relaxed appeal on the 00'z.  Not sure what is causing that, but suspect the 00z ...if we map this ridge rollout on top of that we might actually see a solution more like the 00z GGEM. 

I can't remember what summer it was ... but an epic hot one in Texas... rural soils were baked to adobe hardness under heat that was so intense that railroad iron buckled and road surfaces failed frequently between mid June and late Aug. I recall seeing video looking down the length wise at serpentine tracks that were supposed to be straight ... a scene later, a few cars tires were partially sunk in the blacktop asphalt of a parking lot.  And it wouldn't relent with any speed in autumn, as they were still clocking into the high 90s in early October.  It made some news and the weather channel (thinking mid to late 1990s) did a lot of coverage, too.  That heat never once pealed away and got up into the OV ...not once. 

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10 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

+4 AO coming up. The whole Hemisphere pattern shift is happening with ENSO, it usually doesn't happen so directly unless going into Strong E Nino

Mmm... It's not likely a given interval of positive or negative departure is instrumentally driven by the ENSO - ...the index is far too stochastically dependent upon a variety of both related and unrelated vectors of input. 

Either warm or cool ENSO's correlation with the AO probably has a series of indirection, seeing as by nature, the two disciplines are very polar in both domain space and by physical parametric distribution.  Sorry for the long words ...just means there is no direct route there between the two.

Common experience among climate and met scientist ... the AO index is both negative and positive at times during either ENSO state for all these reasons.

 

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10 hours ago, Cold Miser said:

You are an awful saleman.

....The telemarketer,or direct sales agent  that calls every day pushing the same, cheap product that no one wants. Maybe every so often you get a senior citizen to bite because he/she doesn't know any better.

...Like that car salesman who tries to convince you that paying sticker price is what everyone does.

...Like the guy who tries to push the timeshare while at Disney.  Only the foolish take advantage of it.

You are trying to sell something that 99% of the population want's nothing to do with.

I’ve done quite well in my sales career thanks . You have no idea what the population wants. There’s many people that enjoy hot humid weather. You’re posting on a cold snow biased board . That’s all you know 

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Texas heat...arrived in Austin on August of 1986 at the old Mueller airport. Walked outside in mid-day heat and can only compare it to working as a pizza maker around gas fired ovens. I assumed there would be relief found under a tree in the shade but there was no discernable temperature difference. Assumed that the evenings would cool, minimally. Texas summer heat was nothing that a guy who had spent his life in NE could comprehend. Upon my return to NE, I found my first couple of winters to be intolerable. 

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5 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

 

Yeah I should probably add ... I'm not hugely confident of it.. just that it's really kind of the first time this season there's been any signal at all... The 12z operational Euro tries a ridge rollout a bit more..but something interesting between the 00z and 12z cycles; the last three days of which have seen the heights/mean band of westerlies deeper and farther S on the 12z..then flips back to a more relaxed appeal on the 00'z.  Not sure what is causing that, but suspect the 00z ...if we map this ridge rollout on top of that we might actually see a solution more like the 00z GGEM. 

I can't remember what summer it was ... but an epic hot one in Texas... rural soils were baked to adobe hardness under heat that was so intense that railroad iron buckled and road surfaces failed frequently between mid June and late Aug. I recall seeing video looking down the length wise at serpentine tracks that were supposed to be straight ... a scene later, a few cars tires were partially sunk in the blacktop asphalt of a parking lot.  And it wouldn't relent with any speed in autumn, as they were still clocking into the high 90s in early October.  It made some news and the weather channel (thinking mid to late 1990s) did a lot of coverage, too.  That heat never once pealed away and got up into the OV ...not once. 

Youre probably thinking of 2000 based on the description of it lasting well into autumn...though it's possible it was 1993 with the drought there (ironically the same summer the Mississippi River had their epic 100 year flood). I recall the 2000 summer very well though as I was interning down there at a classic dot-com boom company that were so plentiful back then (esp in Austin) for extra money before returning north in the fall for sophomore year of college. 

In 2000 the summer started off inconspicuously with a lot of humid and showery weather in June and temps in the upper 80s and low 90s. But it really started ramping up in July with lots of upper 90s and then finally a nearly two week consecutive 100+ streak. I recall my birthday on July 14th hit 105 and as we went out to a casual steak dinner at 630pm, the heat was still absolutely choking in the parking lot that hour. Prob only down to like 101-102 but you knew the airmass was dry. The wind felt like a hot, hair dryer blowing in your face...the positive though was that the dry airmass allowed some cooling later in the evening when the sun finally went down. We'd sometimes get 60s at night instead of the usual low 70s. 

The 100 streak finally broke in late July but we kept posting upper 90s with a few 100s mixed in before another shorter streak of 100+ in August that was less intense than the July streak but still pretty nasty stuff. I flew back to Boston and as I arrive back in Ithaca I noted the heat continuing in Austin. The calendar rolled into September and as we were freezing our butts off with multiple frosts, I noted that Austin set it's all time record high of 112F (!!!) in September. The September heat was relentless with over a week straight of 100+.

 

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I don't know what all the fuss is about, then again this is a cold biased forum. 

Been to Phoenix a couple times in August...sure it's hot, but I still went for a hike at 106 degrees. Just bring plenty of water. Lots of other people were doing it to, some even in sweat pants....which was a little much. 

There's a reason the Sunbelt is booming...and it's not just cheap real estate, it's climate too. DIT is right.... most people enjoy HHH in summer....pools, BBQ's, bikinis, board shorts. 

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7 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

When I would spend summers in Texas in the early to mid 1990s, I had an odd fascination with heat. I used to root for those air masses that would come out of the Chihuahuan desert in far west Texas and northern mexico...anytime the flow was more N,E, SE or S I would get grumpy because I knew that high temps would prob top out mid 90s to maybe upper 90s in Austin...but when we had the flow out of WSW or SW...we could make a run at the 99-103 range. The type of heat down there also sort of numbed me to any heat waves in New England...people would start going nuts here when the high was forecasted to be 95F and to me that was a "disappointing" day in Austin in July. I used to not mind the heat at all due to my summer exposure to it...but now I've grown more and more to hate it. Give me 80F and that's plenty for me. Warm enough to swim, play some golf, go for a hike, etc. 

Anyways, the euro ensembles do look quite warm to our south for the first few days of May before cooling again...however, right now I think we prob miss out on it in that depiction. The GEFS are a bit more enthusiastic. 

I think the hottest I've dealt with was a trip to Pinehurst for my dad's 60th in 2012 and they were ripping off triple digits with humidity every day. I think the heat peaked around 104 with dews in the 70s. The dews were better in DVN of course thanks to the corn/soy.

My new favorite heat experience was on the honeymoon last year, we're touring around Bora Bora in the canopied back of a truck. Looks like the station on the island recording a high of 89 (which is hot for the middle of the Pacific, remember HI's record high is "only" 98). The tour took us up to some lookouts, to some old WWII guns, that sort of thing doing a big loop around the island. At our first stop a new husband quit because it was "too hot," and got his wife to walk back to their hotel (it was the last pick up spot so we were close). 

I found that pretty soft. I didn't fly halfway across the globe to sit in the AC and try and find a station in English.

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10 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I’ve done quite well in my sales career thanks . You have no idea what the population wants. There’s many people that enjoy hot humid weather. You’re posting on a cold snow biased board . That’s all you know 

We've had this discussion before I recall posting several polls from non-weather forums where the vast majority of people preferred non-humid weather.  Sure there might be a cold bias on this one but we like extreme weather.  I'll encounter people every once and a while that says "I'm a hot & humid type person" and they themselves will admit that they are in the minority just as I do when I say I like cold weather.  So yes there are people that like that kind of weather but no, they are not the majority. 

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2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Honestly I'd like slightly higher dews. This is the dryest my hands have been all cold season. 68/18 today will not help them.

Static for all. I wish I was skiing up there. Low dews high sun warm day, tons of snow man I bet you can't get any better than today.

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There's definitely more of a tenor now, since more of the models then this time yesterday have come on-board for a significant roll-out of the pattern/persistence trough reload into SE Canada. At least, to shallow it/that behavior significant enough to allow a deeper warming post D 7 .. However, I'm not sure how 'torched' that look is.  It may just be seasonally warm. 

But then again, what is a 'torch'? It's an entirely subjective distinction. 

To me, it's relative to season.  I think a torch has to be +10 diurnal averages at a minimum by this time of spring...  Contrasting backwards, +5 would do it in January. Whereas more like 15 in July ...and of course, DPs and 'HI' notwithstanding on the latter. We can be 93/49 and that's a technically a torch but it's weak sauce circa July 10...  You need the DPs for the edge.  Anyway, +10 is like high of 83 low of 55 or so.. might be doable in that Euro D9/10 look.

There is also the convention that anytime "warmth" in the weather f's up someone's personal agenda in this hobby, that's probably going to be a torch in their mind, be it +1 or +30 ..hence the subjectivity of it. But perhaps there is a consensus out there - 

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14 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I’ve done quite well in my sales career thanks . You have no idea what the population wants. There’s many people that enjoy hot humid weather. You’re posting on a cold snow biased board . That’s all you know 

Fair enough.  Please direct me to the HHH lovers board, particularly the fans of  humidity forum and let me take a legit sampling. 

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11 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

Fair enough.  Please direct me to the HHH lovers board, particularly the fans of  humidity forum and let me take a legit sampling. 

LMAO...nice comeback.   Ya, most people don't really like the Humidity all too much....so I think he's probably incorrect that most people like the 3 H's.  I would gamble that those liking HHH are definitely in the minority overall.  Nothing wrong with liking it at all....just think that there are less of those who actually like it.

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I found a random forum that made a poll about humidity:

http://www.city-data.com/forum/weather/1609899-whats-more-comfortable-low-humidity-high.html

 

Overwhelmingly people preferred low humidity. It matches our results fairly closely.

 

The general public generally views weather like this:

1. They like warm over cold

2. They prefer rain over snow

3. They prefer lower humidity over high humidity

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3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I found a random forum that made a poll about humidity:

http://www.city-data.com/forum/weather/1609899-whats-more-comfortable-low-humidity-high.html

 

Overwhelmingly people preferred low humidity. It matches our results fairly closely.

 

The general public generally views weather like this:

1. They like warm over cold

2. They prefer rain over snow

3. They prefer lower humidity over high humidity

Ha ha... this is like a venn diagram for those caught up in this bubble psychosis in here ...  like, 'oh, wait - we are the outlier.  I was way off!'  

 

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19 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I found a random forum that made a poll about humidity:

http://www.city-data.com/forum/weather/1609899-whats-more-comfortable-low-humidity-high.html

 

Overwhelmingly people preferred low humidity. It matches our results fairly closely.

 

The general public generally views weather like this:

1. They like warm over cold

2. They prefer rain over snow

3. They prefer lower humidity over high humidity

Quincy did a poll here, Kev is just a minority shareholder. peeps don't like HHH only 23/110 like high dews

What are your ideal summer temperatures?  

 110 members have voted

  1. 1. What's your ideal summer HIGH temperature?

    • <70°
       
       9
    • 70° to 79°
       
       50
    • 80° to 89°
       
       32
    • 90° to 99°
       
       16
    • 100°+
       
       3
  2. 2. What's your ideal summer LOW temperature?

    • <50°
       
       21
    • 50° to 59°
       
       46
    • 60° to 69°
       
       27
    • 70° to 79°
       
       14
    • 80°+
       
       2
  3. 3. What's your ideal summer dew-point temperature?

    • <45°
       
       25
    • 45° to 54°
       
       37
    • 55° to 64°
       
       25
    • 65° to 74°
       
       16
    • 75°+
       
       7

 

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13 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Youre probably thinking of 2000 based on the description of it lasting well into autumn...though it's possible it was 1993 with the drought there (ironically the same summer the Mississippi River had their epic 100 year flood). I recall the 2000 summer very well though as I was interning down there at a classic dot-com boom company that were so plentiful back then (esp in Austin) for extra money before returning north in the fall for sophomore year of college. 

In 2000 the summer started off inconspicuously with a lot of humid and showery weather in June and temps in the upper 80s and low 90s. But it really started ramping up in July with lots of upper 90s and then finally a nearly two week consecutive 100+ streak. I recall my birthday on July 14th hit 105 and as we went out to a casual steak dinner at 630pm, the heat was still absolutely choking in the parking lot that hour. Prob only down to like 101-102 but you knew the airmass was dry. The wind felt like a hot, hair dryer blowing in your face...the positive though was that the dry airmass allowed some cooling later in the evening when the sun finally went down. We'd sometimes get 60s at night instead of the usual low 70s. 

The 100 streak finally broke in late July but we kept posting upper 90s with a few 100s mixed in before another shorter streak of 100+ in August that was less intense than the July streak but still pretty nasty stuff. I flew back to Boston and as I arrive back in Ithaca I noted the heat continuing in Austin. The calendar rolled into September and as we were freezing our butts off with multiple frosts, I noted that Austin set it's all time record high of 112F (!!!) in September. The September heat was relentless with over a week straight of 100+.

 

That's gotta be the one, yeah.  I think the September heat back in 2000 was when the 'news' value of it really reached it's - pardon me - 'fever pitch' 

But the stuff about bending rails and goop asphalt was early on ... most likely, as the sun's irradiance would be needed for those materials. 

One thing I've never seen demoed, which I wonder if it is even possible at our latitude, is that old frying of the egg on the sidewalk.  I've tried in 97 sunny weather and failed.  Egg didn't even pale.  There's old photos out there of doing it down in Philli during the bible heat year of 1938 ... That was that crazy N/A ridge that brought the average highs to 110 from SD to Chicago...and at times, pieces pinched off and got Boston to Philli over 100 a couple of times that summer.  I wonder if that is even possible out there in Plains now with agriculture the the way it is.. Proficient usage of land over macro scales does effect the climate via soil moisture pathways - ... It's harder to bring an 80 F DP BL much over 100 F in actual air T, let alone a buck ten. The "corn croposphere" of IA for example..  

Some folks may not know this, but...the "Dust Bowl" and dust storm plagues of that decadal drought have been heavily researched to be a combination of not just a heat favorable pattern, but one collocated in time with pervasive poor agrarian logistical practices.  You know ...heh, it's ironic that people have a problem wrapping their heads around Terraforming and being actually able to alter a global climate system as part of the modern argument against AGW (although very recently... there seems to be less resistance to that concept in the general sphere of culture...).   But when considering how poor land/turf management spread out over a vast area of North America's "fertile crescent" probably contributed to insane run-away hot summers in that era, that's a perfect microcosm of doing just that: Terraforming a climate - just didn't do it all over planet.   It was a prophetic decade ... 

Anywho ... warm pattern gathered some "steam" (ha!) in the overnights.  The EPS edging a bit more in that direction too...

I gotta say folks...this back-built green-up we've cornered our selves into from the GL to NE belt could be one of the fastest ever witnessed. It's behind ...and has some catching up to do... If we got a week of 77/50 air mass to sustain say April 30 to May 5 or 6 that's gonna really cause the flora to go nuts in a very short period of time.  

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