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Napril Fools? Pattern and Model Discussion . . .


HimoorWx

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It’s snowing again. Relentless!

i was looking through my PWS records, and last summer we had 30’s for a low each month. That means that we haven’t had a single month for the past year when we didn’t at least get into the 30s. I wonder how normal that is... my records only go back a year so I have no idea. I suppose it can’t be that unusual though at this elevation and with our propensity to radiational cooling

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2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

That's prob good for a 'rhea high or two nosing in from Nova Scotia.

you mean like this ... granted...it's not hangin' two butt cheeks over our heads out of western NS ... but this is just the sort of mid 80s in Michigan with sleet pellets in Tolland that Kevin breaks out the hand lotion and kleenex for - 

image.thumb.png.a32228724980a9add1a31b3018094d26.png

 

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It's going to take a furnace to melt this snow.

Mansfield COOP back up to 100" of depth today, an increase of 9" in the last 24 hours.  That 100" ties the season high on March 16th.  There has been a gain of 17" in the past 6 days, though with the resort closure there's no "snowfall" values but stands to reason more snowfall has landed than the depth increase.  Probably safe to say 18" or more has fallen this week in terms of snowfall once you add in some compaction.

31047339_10103395681224470_9026779976283

 

 

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So I was going through max late season snowfall, and I think I'm finding 4 years since 1955 on Mansfield with a depth of 100" or more on this date.

But what the hell happened around this time in April 1996?!  That month had 71" of snowfall at the Coop with an astonishing 18.26" liquid (!).  Depth hit 135". 

This must've been one helluva storm if you look at these dailies:

4/16/96...0.15" precip...trace snow...depth of 118"

4/17/96...3.00" precip...18" snow...depth of 133"

4/18/96...1.60" precip...9.0" snow...depth of 135"

27" on 4.60" liquid?  That must've been one heck of a bomb.  And there was one the week before where 27.4" of snow fell in 4 days on 4.38" liquid.

I'd love to experience that... a 50" snow depth increase in April with over 18" of precip.  Talk about an active month.

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13 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah, that's coming luckily.  Looks like enough to fully cover the grass down in lower elevations too now that I'm getting home.  Higher elevations will have snow for along time.

The mountain has to have over 100" snowpack now up high.  This was double digits on the upper half of the mountain would be my guess. 

I still love these events though, I mean that the mountain can create that much moisture, a good .75-1.0" QPF I bet last night out.  

Hermit Lake got 5.7" last night and still have 70" on the ground. Deep, deep winter.

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10 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Hey Chris ...or anyone affiliated with the NWS:   ...why does the machine guidance for the GFS say "GFSX"  when accessing via web ?  

Off the top of one's head ..that 'sounds' like it could be based upon an 'experimental' version of ...something, whether it is the algorithms they use in situ, or the source. If it is an experimental version of the Global Forecast System ... as in, 'Experimental G' F' S' ... where does one find the actual MOS for the GFS?   

I mean not that it matters all that much ... it seems the way information dissemination is changing so frequently these days nothing out there will be the same in five years anyway... 

I believe it is just to denote "extended" forecast vs. the MAV which is the same GFS data but higher temporal resolution, short term guidance.

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3 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

you mean like this ... granted...it's not hangin' two butt cheeks over our heads out of western NS ... but this is just the sort of mid 80s in Michigan with sleet pellets in Tolland that Kevin breaks out the hand lotion and kleenex for - 

image.thumb.png.a32228724980a9add1a31b3018094d26.png

 

:o:lol:  

I love being able to come here on a Friday night and not only learn a little bit about weather but also have a good laugh.

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4 hours ago, alex said:

It’s snowing again. Relentless!

i was looking through my PWS records, and last summer we had 30’s for a low each month. That means that we haven’t had a single month for the past year when we didn’t at least get into the 30s. I wonder how normal that is... my records only go back a year so I have no idea. I suppose it can’t be that unusual though at this elevation and with our propensity to radiational cooling

That's not super common. Quick sort through our nearby(ish) coop data and Gorham almost pulled it off in 2015 (43 in August). Bethlehem did in 2001.

Find a station like Lancaster with a longer POR, and you can find 1957, 1960, 1975-1978, 1981-1983, 1985-1987, 1992. But that's also a bit north of you, but seems to match the frequency of a place like Pinkham Notch.

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2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

CPC with a furnace summer. This would be welcomed by everyone here . Please happen 

Interpretation FTL.

For SNE this actually corresponds to about +0.5 over the course of JJA. 

A "normal" distribution would be 33.3% for above, near, and below normal, with a 10% chance of exceeding the 90th and 10th percentiles. Basically this forecast shifts that to 52%, 33%, 15% above, near, below normal, and an 18% chance of exceeding 90th, and 2% chance of exceeding the 10th percentiles. 

More likely we're above than below normal, but by no means a furnace forecast. 

Now granted they do this by climate division, but the 10th percentile for SNE is 71 degrees (mean temp) and last summer BDL was exactly 71 degrees, which is actually below normal for the Tarmac (-0.4). So you could repeat last summer and this forecast could still be right for the climate division.

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22 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Interpretation FTL.

For SNE this actually corresponds to about +0.5 over the course of JJA. 

A "normal" distribution would be 33.3% for above, near, and below normal, with a 10% chance of exceeding the 90th and 10th percentiles. Basically this forecast shifts that to 52%, 33%, 15% above, near, below normal, and an 18% chance of exceeding 90th, and 2% chance of exceeding the 10th percentiles. 

More likely we're above than below normal, but by no means a furnace forecast. 

Now granted they do this by climate division, but the 10th percentile for SNE is 71 degrees (mean temp) and last summer BDL was exactly 71 degrees, which is actually below normal for the Tarmac (-0.4). So you could repeat last summer and this forecast could still be right for the climate division.

What Kevin understood:  bloggen scoog dokken shtoog blah blah sprekin ze douche bag 100% of the time...

so basically they're taking the background GW signal. Heh

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8 hours ago, OceanStWx said:

That's not super common. Quick sort through our nearby(ish) coop data and Gorham almost pulled it off in 2015 (43 in August). Bethlehem did in 2001.

Find a station like Lancaster with a longer POR, and you can find 1957, 1960, 1975-1978, 1981-1983, 1985-1987, 1992. But that's also a bit north of you, but seems to match the frequency of a place like Pinkham Notch.

HIE had freezes in July 2001.

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1 hour ago, dendrite said:

HIE had freezes in July 2001.

That was bar none the worst summer I personally every experienced living in SNE ...  I remember being amazed at times, just how cool and wet it was.  Somewhere around June 10, there was even a wind swept nor' easter, with sheets of rain and the temperature was like 48 F - just one such moment of amazement.  Visibility was even dimmed by street light from the whirling mist and rain and I distinctly recall thinking this was no different than a coastal winter storm, if perhaps 20 degrees up the dial. 

It wasn't like the cold pool summers of 2007 and 2008, where both years featured a kind of persistent 500 mb/steep lapse rate, and thus convection tending to keep days from achieving higher temperature numbers. Those summers at least had the daily entertainment of severe watches that seemed perfunctory during July.  2001 was uniquely weird for murk with cool built to the surface - not sure what was going on back then, but really it more than merely seemed the calendar that year went something like ... Jan, Fed, Mar, Apr, Apr-May hybrid, Apr-May hybrid, Apr-May hybrid, Apr-May hybrid, Sep, Oct, ...

So anyway, not surprising that a few favorable climo locales up that way had untimely run-ins with cold that summer. Starting to wonder when we consider pulling a similar trigger for this year's summer ...  I love it how/when at the water cooler at the office, or whatever enclaves and pathos of one's daily trappings puts them shoulder to shoulder with the hoi polloi, how one may often hear, "The way this winter is going, you just know the summer is going to be hot!"   ...really, how's that again?  I mean, 2001 Mar featured that bomb whose most notable epicosity was in the biblical scale of it's bust for the M/A and coastal SNE ...  Yeah, it was okay for southern VT, okay... And, the previous months were ho-hum... The following winter was pretty schitty too if memory serves... so how well did that work out for that year... not too well...  Unless one were to have said, "...As schitty and futile and frustrating as this winter was, you just know that summer will be engineered by god him self to personally attack people that want summery weather.. .  and, because of all this, next winter you just know is going to suck giant monkey balls too - "   yeah, that's the new adage, just like the predecessor saying ... derived from logic and causality - haha.

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40 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

That was bar none the worst summer I personally every experienced living in SNE ...  I remember being amazed at times, just how cool and wet it was.  Somewhere around June 10, there was even a wind swept nor' easter, with sheets of rain and the temperature was like 48 F - just one such moment of amazement.  Visibility was even dimmed by street light from the whirling mist and rain and I distinctly recall thinking this was no different than a coastal winter storm, if perhaps 20 degrees up the dial. 

 

This was the June 5-7, 2000 event. I had 53-45 on the 6th with over 2" of rain. July 2001 was a cool but dry month, probably one of the best July's ever if you don't like humidity.

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