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Napril Fools? Pattern and Model Discussion . . .


HimoorWx

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Heh... the money lands on episodic face smack cool wacks out of James Bay region in that look...  but only by a narrow margin - as in a few members might be warmer than that look.  

In fact, that's pretty close to the PNAP base-line circulation structure over perennial N/A ...  that ridge in the Rockies is probably just the means canceling out anomalies such that the residue of the torque budget gets exposed by the remainder.  

In other words, there may not be much of a signal there for cold or hot either way.

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4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

More snow on the GFS op for the 30th?

yeah ..haha... let's hold out for an ANA snow event at the tail end of April on a 10-day outlook ...  Toss all other life while we wait for that, wringing hands and sweating brows - 

then, check into a strait jacket and an interview with nurse Rachet  - god rest that actress' soul

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9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Also, what rain Tuesday? We nape. 

yeah no he's clearly pokin' the hornet's nest - I'm pretty certain he doesn't believe > 50% of what he says, much of the time. He just likes  the attention and to sit back and savor the vitriol therein - in essence, he's a troll. One given license to do so by the years of familiarity ... if he were to go to a completely strange weather-focus social media and post his material, whatever local brand of "moderation" that exist there ...you can be assured, would no longer have him there. 

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3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

yeah ..haha... let's hold out for an ANA snow event at the tail end of April on a 10-day outlook ...  Toss all other life while we wait for that, wringing hands and sweating brows - 

then, check into a strait jacket and an interview with nurse Rachet  - god rest that actress' soul

She’s alive and well.

 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Louise_Fletcher

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33 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

And we did get that ... we had a series of springs around 2009 I think '10 and '12 that were above normal. In fact, the March +7 to +10 was ridic and pervasive and no joke.  

Perhaps we are 'over-due' in a sense, for the hot side, but like I said ...there are climate models that suggest GW triggers cool regions - I mean that's pretty common knowledge anyway to those that engage in this hobby, but I wonder if the predominating signal to be cooler relative to the whole planet is all part of that.  hmm

Saw a recent article about a study backing the idea of the AMOC disruption leading to generally cooler temps in the northeast and warmer in Europe. Kind of what's happening now.

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2 minutes ago, rimetree said:

Saw a recent article about a study backing the idea of the AMOC disruption leading to generally cooler temps in the northeast and warmer in Europe. Kind of what's happening now.

Yeah..that thermohaline circulation collapse is pretty well scienced...  But, it was supposed to correlate to cold over western Europe and eastern Canada - not sure about the warm Europe part but I'm sure there's variant sciences in the matter.

That was actually used as part of the sci-fi premise in that big budget movie, "The Day After reason and logic died..."  They even showcased the currents flowing in the wrong direction (typical :unsure:) when "Jack Hall" pleaded before congress to start the kiss-self-ass-goodbye ceremony ahead of time and start "walking" to warm climates...  I was laughing my ass off during those 'serious' scenes... as they were being chased by ice in a harrowingly narrow escape  

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29 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Not to be a dink but ... why is that warm pattern ?

Looks like bd-city for my area.


And we did get that ... we had a series of springs around 2009 I think '10 and '12 that were above normal

March 2012 had that record-shattering stretch 18th-23rd but als had some BN days early and late.  It was 2010 that had the extended way-AN temps after the New Years retro bomb ate winter - 4th warmest of 20 Januarys, warmest for Feb-Mar-Apr, and #3 for May (only 0.03° behind #2.)  That 5-month run of AN (including one period of 46 consecutive AN days) is so far beyond any departure series for that many months that it reminds me of a comment from the very first America's Cup race.  Once the American boat was sighted, someone asked, "And who is second?", and the response was, "There IS no second!"

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31 minutes ago, dendrite said:

We will all be at the beach naping this July while Mitch is hunting deer for survival, cutting down pines on his plot, and burning wood to stay warm as he slowly approaches August mud season. 

I'm sure he'll have 3 weeks to grill outside I guess.

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17 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s a west wind / pacific pattern . Other than a back door every so often that would be sunny mild and dry 

I see ...

well, personally I'd say that is even money for cool or warm departures.   Not really the EPS signaling a flip to warm/heat per se -   The advent of "heat" ... yeah, you can't say it won't happen, but equally, you can't really be certain of cold.  

Incidentally ..that pattern result of that EPS mean is really almost just mimicking the climate base-line pattern, perhaps a slightly amped version of it.  

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14 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I see ...

well, personally I'd say that is even money for cool or warm departures.   Not really the EPS signaling a flip to warm/heat per se -   The advent of "heat" ... yeah, you can't say it won't happen, but equally, you can't really be certain of cold.  

Incidentally ..that pattern result of that EPS mean is really almost just mimicking the climate base-line pattern, perhaps a slightly amped version of it.  

The point to glean is it’s a west wind PAC driven pattern. Not the current abomination of eastern trough/ western ridge sucking down cold from the God forsaken snowfields of the Indian reservations of Eastern Canada

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1 hour ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Would you be able to help me.

Having difficulty confirming email on this account so i cant get into american politics or change password.

I will I.M but you Prolly see this faster.

Politics forum is here...

www.americanpol.com

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