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Napril Fools? Pattern and Model Discussion . . .


HimoorWx

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I wonder ... with these stationary lift mechanics ...does that pound one side of the orographic lift ...i.e, is there a lee-side drying?    Does the N-NW faces boast their 12 to 18 " of while the same elevation on the lee side have far less or none where the same conditionally saturable air that was forced by the land mass to ascend, is then likewise by restoring forces ... descending and therefore drying.  

I guess I'm sort of visualizing that this type of mountain Meteorological phenomenon does not snow around the summit of a mountain in the sense of a complete garland of snow, but is "lopsided" so to speak ... caking the windward sides.   I mean, that seems arguably like it must be true... because we know that rain does that...  but I don't know if maybe phase transitioning allows for slightly different moisture budgeting in that circulation model.  interesting..  

In any case, what got me wondering this was actually a separate question altogether ... usually by now we are seeing the perennial CT River Valley flood warning ...because the head waters are robust from spring time summit release/charging.  Seems quite naturally to be late this season... but, does that upslope event augment that.  I'm almost thinking it would for the windward side head-water interests, but not so much for rivers like the CT or Merrimack.  

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47 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I swear ... I can think of several members that regular this particular "pass-time" that really need to move up there and formulate some kind of commune ha!

Anyway, thankfully Monday and Tuesday still look like 70 to 74 diabatically assisted afternoons.  Probably wouldn't see that result in that sort of synoptic evolution even a month ago, but by the time we get past April 15, we're really getting into the taller sun.. Such that 'blue' lines on charts don't necessarily imply the same thing. The other attributes will proficiently offset, and such, probably ... boundary layer thickness' will expand more so now through the end of August than they would at times before or after those times of the year  - which is what happens when the sun broils an otherwise cool atmosphere. 

anyway, so... chilly dawns ...especially Monday.  I could see that being 32 to 39 in the interior (or even colder like at Orange Mass' eternal cryo-hell) with frost pretty pervasive, ..then soaring to 60 by 10:30 or 11 o'clock ... squeezing to 70 by 2 or 3 pm...  Tuesday may have radiative energy/absorption in the bank enough that despite the clear skies overnight prior, we only get back to 42 with smattering of hollowed cold in the interior... then, similar soaring with a slightly higher launch gets to 74.. 

I was wondering, do we organize a slow mover and flood threat late week?

Rain moves in later Tuesday afternoon. We really only a day and a half 

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1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

The orographic lift came through.  Mountains are a very efficient at creating precipitation.

This is nuts.  Massive snowbanks for April 20th.

IMG_9362.JPG.14d704aa0400d8d26798e96bfaaa6d51.JPG

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Wow...amazing.  Man that stick is showing between 7-8 inches, but to just look at the chunk on that table it looks like a Foot or so...

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1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Rain moves in later Tuesday afternoon. We really only a day and a half 

I'm thinking the rain holds off till at least Tuesday late night...Tuesday as of now should be pretty decent/mild.  Obviously could change going forward...but as of now any rain holds off till later in the night/Wed morning.

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4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Rain moves in later Tuesday afternoon. We really only a day and a half 

things could certainly accelerate in real time compared to what the 00z models displayed ...but for WHAT they actually displayed, there's not much support for this panned statement -

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3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Both days are shorts days with long sleeve under armor half zips for tops as we watch soccer, wash trucks , and yard work 

True dat. Shorts, hoodie, vest. Sandals will be borderline on Sunday...may be able to pull it off during peak heating.

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ORH -7 on the month through 4/19....looks like that number will get more negative after today. (already -9 on the low this morning)

 

You forget how quickly climo is warming...even ORH should be hitting 57-58F by now for avg highs with lower 60s in the torch spots. So these 45F days really take a bite out of the monthly departure.

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We live in an era where delusion is enabled ... People's realities exist inside bubbles of perception they've been enabled to create.

Imagine for this evolution ... this were somehow both the dust bowl era of Oklahoma prior to and during the Great Depression ... while there were an Internet: it is not hard to imagine people being less inclined to churning out bold statements based upon fantasies, and then try to defend them... Why? Because to do so during scarcity, and thus ... fumbling around with resource risks logistical failure .. culminating in the demise of the farm - already under fire by a society switching from an agrarian based economy to an industrial one, then exacerbated along by other environmental complexities that no longer favored agriculture as a means to subsistence ..and so on.  In scarcity, people keep it real. 

 

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16 hours ago, dendrite said:

5/19/62

https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/NYA/NYA196205190.shtml

Central Park with a record high of 99F. Battey 1 for 3 with a K.

We were playing baseball that day about 1/2 mile from my NNJ home.  When someone with a portable radio reported that the NYC temp had leapt from 89 to 95 in one hour, we decided to seek shade.

Looking at the snow pics (and we had a dusting overnight at my place) reminds me of just how random April snow is.  I've seen 9 double-digit snowstorms in my lifetime, and the only pattern is that there isn't one.

4/8/1956   12.0"  NNJ (a real birch-bender - significant tree damage)
4/3-5/1975  12.0"  BGR (biggest snowfall in my 3 years there)
4/7-8/1982  17.0"  Ft.Kent  (most powerful blizzard of my experience)
4/19/1983   11.0"  NNJ (visiting friends)
4/22-23/1986  13.0"  NNJ (visiting same friends, wondering if we'd ever be invited back!)
4/10-11/1996  11.7"  Gardiner
4/4-5/2007   18.5"  Current location
4/12-13/2007  11.2"   same
4/1-2/2011   15.1"   same

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Obviously just eye-balling the numbers one doesn't have to use a calculator or pen-and-paper to see arithmetically that we would need some means to be greatly above normal to get to even before the end of the month - I suppose the trophy quest comes down to whether we can persist another 10 days of -4 to -9 type departures and keep the numbers where they are... versus throwing three days of 70s in there to just keep it out of contention...thus succeeding in only being miserable and nothing else. 

My guess is on the latter... We are in a circumstance where that failure and merely having a stolen spring month/whopper justification for loathing April's in general, is favored by any gambler with a sense for odds. 

That said, to pull off a top 3 (negative) April or whatever the goal is there... it is true we don't need it to be as chilly as April 10 to keep the negatives -7... because as Will just intimated.. we are on the climo hockey stick incline heading out of the cold season so comparatively less "chilly" feeling annoying air mass can still get it down over the next 10 days.  

Monday and Tuesday might have modestly negative lows but slightly greater positive afternoons if we do make 70 and 74..   MOS may not say that outright...but it's not synoptically impossible, then also considering climate dimming those numbers...  

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Hey Chris ...or anyone affiliated with the NWS:   ...why does the machine guidance for the GFS say "GFSX"  when accessing via web ?  

Off the top of one's head ..that 'sounds' like it could be based upon an 'experimental' version of ...something, whether it is the algorithms they use in situ, or the source. If it is an experimental version of the Global Forecast System ... as in, 'Experimental G' F' S' ... where does one find the actual MOS for the GFS?   

I mean not that it matters all that much ... it seems the way information dissemination is changing so frequently these days nothing out there will be the same in five years anyway... 

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38 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Obviously just eye-balling the numbers one doesn't have to use a calculator or pen-and-paper to see arithmetically that we would need some means to be greatly above normal to get to even before the end of the month - I suppose the trophy quest comes down to whether we can persist another 10 days of -4 to -9 type departures and keep the numbers where they are... versus throwing three days of 70s in there to just keep it out of contention...thus succeeding in only being miserable and nothing else. 

Thru yesterday, April was running 6.5° BN.  Thus we'd need 11+ AN today thru the 30th to break even - averaging 70/45 would get there.  However, since today thru Sunday are likely to average closer to 50/30, that would mean the last 8 days would need to run 75-80 for highs, 45-50 for lows.  Models say we wind up between -5 and -6.

Edit:  Given my weekend guess, the month's final 8 days would need to be +3 just to avoid this April being the coolest of 20 here.  65/35 Monday-Monday?  Take the under.

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38 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Somehow my mind 56 years later associated it with Memorial Day.  Still a vivid wx and baseball memory not to mention knife games.

They played each other on 5/30, but Battey was out. I think they were in Minny for that series too. 

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22 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Thru yesterday, April was running 6.5° BN.  Thus we'd need 11+ AN today thru the 30th to break even - averaging 70/45 would get there.  However, since today thru Sunday are likely to average closer to 50/30, that would mean the last 8 days would need to run 75-80 for highs, 45-50 for lows.  Models say we wind up between -5 and -6.

Yup ...concur... definitely where I was heading with my proclivity for failed concision - heh.   

I'm not surprised ...that we get these cold months during Global Warming ?   Keeping any anthropomorphism out of it ... it's been the trend regardless of cause. The truth of a warming planetary atmosphere cannot be denied in those who are not zombies to reality, ...which is a shockingly large number of common thinkers these days but that's another diatribe altogether.  

But spanning the last 15 years, some 2/3rds-worth of the individual months have resulted in cool regions (relative to the whole...) either over eastern N/A middle latitudes, or, ...near enough by to have probably been influenced by the same patterns that resulted in off-set.  Long of the short, whether we are above normal or not relative to self, we are negative relative to the whole planet during that length of time. 

I find that fascinating. Conventional Meteorological thinking says that the flow across western N/A must have averaged NW during that time, but doing so at a greater amplitude than the base-line PNAP pattern that exists across N/A ...any given perennial mean.  

The base line PNAP features a modest 'bulge' in the heights over the Rockies do to torque physic with westerlies impinging orographically against the Rockies cordillera, with a subsequent modest depressed look as the flow compensates into a flat trough back east.  We must have endured a tendency to make that look more amplified, in other words. 

It hearkens back to the papers/articles I recall reading back before I even went to college for this waste of time... (e hm), that global warming models of the early days of the 'scare' (now looking much more substantiated than a mere scare) actually suggested that N/A would experience a cooling effect. The reasons cited had to do with the Pacific Oceanic Basin having thermal surplus during winters, thus causing heights to tend toward higher over western N/A.  Pretty simple theoretical causal connection there, really ...  

We've had giant heat in the last 8 years. We had a 1995 exceeding heat wave that spared Chicago (that time) back (I think it was 2010?) summer... etc... too.  But compared to the conus as a whole, these bigger heat events have tended to shunt S of New England... I lost count just last summer how often the heights would bulge/rise transiently as a fairly large ridge rolled through, but, the actual thickness (those red and blue lines on weather charts) seem to bifurcate and peel S away from the ridge as it was rising, causing a split between those two parametric aspect.  I wonder why the ridges have tended to show up into New England, effectively 'gutted' of their heat content.   I mean ...of course, we've had uncomfortable day from time to time... and we did have one faux apocalyptic hot afternoon back in July of 2011 so it's not true all the time.

Otherwise, the flow tendency to sag over eastern N/A seems to have gone out of its way to 'protect' southeastern Canada and New England from the bigger continental heat eruptions. 

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1 hour ago, tamarack said:

We were playing baseball that day about 1/2 mile from my NNJ home.  When someone with a portable radio reported that the NYC temp had leapt from 89 to 95 in one hour, we decided to seek shade.

Good memory.

11a-12p

http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/orders/IPS/IPS-B25181A5-60D5-403F-8062-435987698133.pdf

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8 minutes ago, tamarack said:

My hazy understanding of the climate change models is that greater variations were likely, meaning a better chance for a -6 month, but also for one at +8. 

And we did get that ... we had a series of springs around 2009 I think '10 and '12 that were above normal. In fact, the March +7 to +10 was ridic and pervasive and no joke.  

Perhaps we are 'over-due' in a sense, for the hot side, but like I said ...there are climate models that suggest GW triggers cool regions - I mean that's pretty common knowledge anyway to those that engage in this hobby, but I wonder if the predominating signal to be cooler relative to the whole planet is all part of that.  hmm

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5 minutes ago, dendrite said:

looking at those numbers...  noticing the lows that day were in the upper 50s.  That's a pretty fantastic diurnal variation on that day - 40 proper?  not bad ... It makes me wonder if that set up just absolutely maximized heating, ...like dry air and pure sun and 850 mb temperature may not have even been much more than 20C although the BL could have been unusually tall too - 

It's not that atypical to have early heat associated with dry air.. I remember the big warm spell in 1998, where we were 89, 90 and 91 respectively over the Merrimack Valley area of NE Mass from the 29th -31st (ended by a charming BD I'll add...), had DPs that were like 28 F... it was insanely dusty dry. I remember looking up at the obs monitor at seeing 89/28 at one point.  

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2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Thanks - weather events have long been my memory key for other things.  One example:  I clearly remember my paternal grandmother's funeral in Feb. 1970 because it was during 36 hours of eerily constant 0.1"/hr baking powder grains.  My NNJ records are lost, but NYC had 3.4" from 0.51" LE with mid 20s temps, pretty consistent with NNJ.

And our 1962 baseball outings seemed to pick the heat, including NYC's 91° on 4/27.  It was way cool to be only 1° from their record for the month, at least until 1976 blew it out of the water. 

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