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Napril Fools? Pattern and Model Discussion . . .


HimoorWx

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I’m guessing 1.0” at home. Was close to that when we left

Went through Moosup and it’s environs. This greening up nicely

Lots of daffodils   Sun finally broke through.  Walked into a nice store party at Helly Hansen in Newport. Free swag, food and cocktails.  We skipped the food having eaten dinner

I think Tip’s heat signal has legs

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2 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Beautiful snow growth right now... not aggregates but great looking dendrites.  How does that even happen this time of year from low level orographic lift.

A quick dusting so far in town but looks like a solid coating up at the mountain.  We'll see what happens tonight.  Could pull a half foot if it shakes out right.

L1v5wew.jpg

Lovely community it reminds me of England where do you live? Lots of snow due to that orogtaphic lift, good to see xx

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12 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Among things folks really care about this time of year, NW flow upslope events.

I think the flow looks a bit too northerly for my liking, but the models are going pretty heavy on the QPF. 

GFS brings a half an inch of QPF to Mansfield and Jay Peak tonight and tomorrow.  Maybe a late-season powder day?  Could even accumulate to the valley floor given the good timing 12am-12pm time frame.

The Canadian guidance has almost an inch of QPF at Jay Peak...

This smells like one of those events where we get the report from John up in Pittsburg that is 2-3 times our forecast. Northerly tends to favor his area more so than a more westerly flow that lights up the Greens.

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8 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

The orographic lift came through.  Mountains are a very efficient at creating precipitation.

This is nuts.  Massive snowbanks for April 20th.

IMG_9362.JPG.14d704aa0400d8d26798e96bfaaa6d51.JPG

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Unless you hate all warm outdoor activities like Mitch, not sure how I would feel. On one hand, that's awesome. On the other, it's nice to have some sun and 50s...lol.

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3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Unless you hate all warm outdoor activities like Mitch, not sure how I would feel. On one hand, that's awesome. On the other, it's nice to have some sun and 50s...lol.

Yeah, that's coming luckily.  Looks like enough to fully cover the grass down in lower elevations too now that I'm getting home.  Higher elevations will have snow for along time.

The mountain has to have over 100" snowpack now up high.  This was double digits on the upper half of the mountain would be my guess. 

I still love these events though, I mean that the mountain can create that much moisture, a good .75-1.0" QPF I bet last night out.  

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I swear ... I can think of several members that regular this particular "pass-time" that really need to move up there and formulate some kind of commune ha!

Anyway, thankfully Monday and Tuesday still look like 70 to 74 diabatically assisted afternoons.  Probably wouldn't see that result in that sort of synoptic evolution even a month ago, but by the time we get past April 15, we're really getting into the taller sun.. Such that 'blue' lines on charts don't necessarily imply the same thing. The other attributes will proficiently offset, and such, probably ... boundary layer thickness' will expand more so now through the end of August than they would at times before or after those times of the year  - which is what happens when the sun broils an otherwise cool atmosphere. 

anyway, so... chilly dawns ...especially Monday.  I could see that being 32 to 39 in the interior (or even colder like at Orange Mass' eternal cryo-hell) with frost pretty pervasive, ..then soaring to 60 by 10:30 or 11 o'clock ... squeezing to 70 by 2 or 3 pm...  Tuesday may have radiative energy/absorption in the bank enough that despite the clear skies overnight prior, we only get back to 42 with smattering of hollowed cold in the interior... then, similar soaring with a slightly higher launch gets to 74.. 

I was wondering, do we organize a slow mover and flood threat late week?

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54 minutes ago, alex said:

64.1" since March 1st... 179.1" for the year, which is just above last year's 175"

At this rate they won't be able to start working on the new gondola till August lol

where is the gondola going?   Despite the less than stellar conditions around 3/1, we'll be back next year.

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9 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

 Just block findryone except the three or four sm art posters.

I cant be one of the smart posters if i cant Find the forum

Just lookin to Chime In on the Amazing "great reflation", our location on the road to debt serfdom, and how surprisingly long it May or may not :)Be to the next "official" recession and potential crisis.

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