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Napril Fools? Pattern and Model Discussion . . .


HimoorWx

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This may be hard for some to get their heads wrapped around ...for others down right offended by the mere impropriety of suggesting weather that's not like winter...  But, the GEFs -based teleconnectors actually support a bit of a heat signal out there toward the end of the month.   Not huge ...but, positive departures over the eastern CONUS and perhaps in the 40th parallel too - 

Sitting here up to our necks is cold craptitude ...where most are miserable but some are embracing .. and given where we've been the last six weeks and what's out of door now, there's no way we could go above normal - right?

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1 minute ago, mreaves said:

Did you get to see either of the Liverpool/City matches? :whistle:

Went for the Manchester Derby hoping to see City wrap up the Premier League at the match.  What a letdown in the second half of that match . . . and horrible refereeing.  Also saw the second leg vs Liverpool.  Wasn't expecting City to win, but it could have been game on if they hadn't ruled that second goal offside.  Do I recall correctly that you are a Liverpool fan?  Good luck in the semis against Roma . . . calling it the Boston Derby!  Well at least City clinched this past weekend thanks to Man U!

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I can't believe it's Thursday and the 2" of sleet from the weekend is still hanging around in a lot of places here.  

But guess when you get 1-1.5" frozen QPF it'll take a while to melt.  Just crazy cold with -7 to -8 departures and still patches of the winter snowpack in places.

 

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1 hour ago, HimoorWx said:

Went for the Manchester Derby hoping to see City wrap up the Premier League at the match.  What a letdown in the second half of that match . . . and horrible refereeing.  Also saw the second leg vs Liverpool.  Wasn't expecting City to win, but it could have been game on if they hadn't ruled that second goal offside.  Do I recall correctly that you are a Liverpool fan?  Good luck in the semis against Roma . . . calling it the Boston Derby!  Well at least City clinched this past weekend thanks to Man U!

Yes, I am a Liverpool fan.  The offside call was a tough one for City to overcome.  We will need luck against Roma, I hope they can get off to the same start at Anfield that they did against City.  As far as the Boston Derby, that was one of the first things I thought of after Roma made it through.

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Among things folks really care about this time of year, NW flow upslope events.

I think the flow looks a bit too northerly for my liking, but the models are going pretty heavy on the QPF. 

GFS brings a half an inch of QPF to Mansfield and Jay Peak tonight and tomorrow.  Maybe a late-season powder day?  Could even accumulate to the valley floor given the good timing 12am-12pm time frame.

RXHr84N.png

 

The Canadian guidance has almost an inch of QPF at Jay Peak...

h3fD4ek.png

KEPs7wz.png

 

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5 hours ago, dendrite said:

Never forget.

image.jpg

That beats my NNJ pic, long lost (it was only a B&W Polaroid) of 4-27-67 written in 3" snow on the roof of our 61 Lancer wagon.  Of course, being about 230 miles northeast of where we then lived makes a wee bit of difference.  (We did have a few pingers there during the cold rain of 5-27-61, the winter that would not quit.  NYC had 47/41 that day, 22° BN, perhaps their greatest ever departure - AN or BN - in May.)

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48 minutes ago, tamarack said:

That beats my NNJ pic, long lost (it was only a B&W Polaroid) of 4-27-67 written in 3" snow on the roof of our 61 Lancer wagon.  Of course, being about 230 miles northeast of where we then lived makes a wee bit of difference.  (We did have a few pingers there during the cold rain of 5-27-61, the winter that would not quit.  NYC had 47/41 that day, 22° BN, perhaps their greatest ever departure - AN or BN - in May.)

I sort of remember around 5/30/62-a year later being close to 100 (99 officially I think).  My friend and I were playing with knives by the side of our house.  Earl Battey was up for the Twins playing the Yankees that day.

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28 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I sort of remember around 5/30/62-a year later being close to 100 (99 officially I think).  My friend and I were playing with knives by the side of our house.  Earl Battey was up for the Twins playing the Yankees that day.

5/19/62

https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/NYA/NYA196205190.shtml

Central Park with a record high of 99F. Battey 1 for 3 with a K.

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Beautiful snow growth right now... not aggregates but great looking dendrites.  How does that even happen this time of year from low level orographic lift.

A quick dusting so far in town but looks like a solid coating up at the mountain.  We'll see what happens tonight.  Could pull a half foot if it shakes out right.

L1v5wew.jpg

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