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Napril Fools? Pattern and Model Discussion . . .


HimoorWx

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20 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah, still think some potential was missed, but no doubt some winter wx this month. I wish it would end now.

This.   It has no doubt been a crazy month with regard to frequency of winter type events, and cold temps..incredible in that regard.  But, I agree with you...if we could have mustered something really big(just like the midwest just did) it would have been the best ever.  I did get 6 inches on the day after Easter...which was a good one.  But something huge like 82 would have sent this into uncharted territory along with all this frequency.   It's too bad that the one last week(Tuesday) couldn't have materialized...Ginxy was liking that set up but it didn't come together for SNE quick enough. 

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16 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I just don’t understand why it can’t get warm . I mean WTF. Enough is  enough. 

Global warming is actually cooling our springs . Making them go from awful to awfuller 

We said early on that ECanada cryosphere was going to be a huge player in our spring but some refused to believe it. Cold HP after cold HP building there with that epic snowpack

nsm_depth_2018041805_National.jpg

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4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

This.   It has no doubt been a crazy month with regard to frequency of winter type events, and cold temps..incredible in that regard.  But, I agree with you...if we could have mustered something really big(just like the midwest just did) it would have been the best ever.  I did get 6 inches on the day after Easter...which was a good one.  But something huge like 82 would have sent this into uncharted territory along with all this frequency.   It's too bad that the one last week(Tuesday) couldn't have materialized...Ginxy was liking that set up but it didn't come together for SNE quick enough. 

Yea I was highly disappointed in that, could have been a contendah

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1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Jaffrey got crushed in Apr 96.

I was trout fishing opening day in SRI way up stream in a jon boat with a trolling motor, nice 40 degree morning, had my limit of native trout in an hour. It started spitting cold thick rain which then transitioned immediately to heavy heavy snow, by the time I got back there was 4 inches of snow in the boat and on me. Epic period to the coast

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2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

I was trout fishing opening day in SRI way up stream in a jon boat with a trolling motor, nice 40 degree morning, had my limit of native trout in an hour. It started spitting cold thick rain which then transitioned immediately to heavy heavy snow, by the time I got back there was 4 inches of snow in the boat and on me. Epic period to the coast

I remember the easter nor'easter that year and then another one. I think the interior had snow on 5/6 too.

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3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I remember the easter nor'easter that year and then another one. I think the interior had snow on 5/6 too.

Over 7" qpf with 31 inches of snow at North Foster with a only  -.2 month of April April 96 put me over 100" in SRI for my first 100 inch snow season

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BTV forecasters still on board with snow. These guys have the best AFDs.  Need Legro to discuss golfing now.

 

Thinking best chance for accumulating wet snow will be above 2000 feet on Thursday with several inches anticipated. Thinking as 925mb temps drop btwn -2c and -4c by 00z Friday snow levels will lower to 1200 feet or so by sunset on Thursday. Have once again trended cooler than guidance for Thursday with highs near freezing mountain towns to lower 40s warmer valleys. Current snow depth atop Mt Mansfield is 90 inches, thinking by Friday we have a good chance to hit 100 inches again, which should provide excellent late season skiing and riding conditions for people like myself looking to earn their turns. &&

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Meh... I suspect next week will go some distance toward alleviated some of those interminable cold impressions of things tho - 

It's not a 'warm' pattern, per se, ...but with -4 rising to +4 C at 850 during the latter half April solar working thru light wind that has most forcing primarily angled off-shore from ...well, late Sunday through next Wed/Thur, there should be a bona fide 'mild' feel to the afternoons, with ample sun.  Probably would feature huger diurnals ... 37 or 39 to 64 type days, with MOS products tending to bias a tick or two cold as a perfunctory correction. That complexion would have a marked different feel and appeal. 

It's been a colder than normal April.  That's all it's been.  Sorry, not all months are above normal - 

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17 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

We said early on that ECanada cryosphere was going to be a huge player in our spring but some refused to believe it. Cold HP after cold HP building there with that epic snowpack

nsm_depth_2018041805_National.jpg

It has definitely helped prevent moderation of some of these airmasses....but it's not the main reason for the cold this month. We still needed the hemispheric pattern to cooperate. We've had epic snowpack years up in Quebec not have cold Aprils before. April 2008 comes to mind.

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

2016 in some areas (this month so far has a slight edge at BDL) and 1996 are two off the top of my head that were likely better in terms of snowfall.

2016 was snowier in ORH but it all came in 2 events.

 

Other Aprils that were snowier were 1997, 1996, 1987, 1982, 1972, 1971, 1967, 1965, 1961, 1958, 1957, 1956, 1935, 1933, 1929, 1924, 1911, 1907, 1894, and 1893. It shows that you need a pretty good event in ORH to break top 10 Aprils.

 

 

Too bad April 10th did not pan out. ORH may get into top 10 though if they can muster up like 2.5-3 inches tomorrow. Tough task, but not impossible.

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Hmm... I don't get that impression.   My experience has been that we have had a steady diet of cold wet systems, some of which have come with some freezing/frozen contention along the way ... if not some physical expression, but by and large, this has been a cold "wet" April... not a snowy one? 

Just look at the climate majors; I guarantee that the vast majority of uptake has fallen in the form of liquid -

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I was actually musing to my self the other day that as of the mid-month mark, we were running -5 to -7 in the means at said majors, ...yet we've had less snow.   That, above all else, shows that April kinda sort maybe gee-wiz is not a winter month and that we can't really dress this up any other way - - for warm season enthusiasts, this has simply not been a good spring for you thus far.  Reality sucks, what can we say... 

But there is a real argument that you don't need to run a month -5 to -7 to get a big snow bomb in April, too... I'm just sayin' all else being uneven and definitely not fair in the real cosmos, we are not getting cold supplies and wet systems to concurrently work together.  Heh, and I suppose that's just easier to do that kind of annoyance at this time of year. We've gotten cold and moisture off sequence in January before too - but you DEFINITELY don't want that in April if one's ambition is the experience of a protracted winter landscape. 

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29 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It has definitely helped prevent moderation of some of these airmasses....but it's not the main reason for the cold this month. We still needed the hemispheric pattern to cooperate. We've had epic snowpack years up in Quebec not have cold Aprils before. April 2008 comes to mind.

chicken versus egg arguement

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6 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Tired of so many things winter.  Gas bill mid March to mid April up $75 from a year go ($310 total).   In summer it runs around $30.

Yup Jer'  ... pain in the wallet.   My electric bill has not really seasonally receded (my house heat via electricity) as it typically does by now.  My last bill was soared some 270% above typical for this time of year, even with suckin' it up and keeping the 'stat closer to 60 ...which is light sweater temperature if one is sitting there.  Logistically this more than a mere passing frustration - 

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