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Napril Fools? Pattern and Model Discussion . . .

HimoorWx

By HimoorWx,
in New England

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Cool late season meteorology.

Beats the humid 87 that DC had.

were you there?   -- in DC ?  Will said he was in Jersey yesterday in that 84 air they had - can't imagine going from that to 32 and snotty drizzle.  

Frankly, I think this summer could be bad up and down the EC - despite the cold now.

These pattern residences don't typically go longer then 45 ...or 90 days in the longer sense before some other new paradigm kicks in.  "If" this late season blocking can ultimately be rooted back to the ENSO, however complexly via indirect physical processes therein... the ENSO's grip in hemispheric patterns naturally wanes as the summer thickness' normalize .. And so, much of that drive is gone in 20 days, or seriously attenuating.  This is all (in my mind) still part of the -NAO that set in March ...we're not seeing a block in the NOA domain per se - but that tendency to blocks and dips and so forth, it's hard to root that tendency elsewhere when both phenomenon tend to result in the same thing. 

But that aside, this is like the opposite of the last several years - which admittedly...is a bit more like a symbolic argument than a science one ( :o ) but if you bear with me for a sec...  We had a repeating tendency for warm spells in April's followed by Rosby replacement and cold Mays into June ..that frankly... seemed to vestigially linger into mid summer ... dimming the full extent/potential of heat waves when models had to handle them going from extended and late mid ranges into shorter scopes.   We had some heat from time to time, but it was more frequently muted as a correction.  Using this guess-work approach, having us go from a convoluted pattern to more of a laminar one with subtropical ridge expressions and a changing of the guard in global AAM - some of the hottest summers we've had along the EC were in the 1970's during the last multi-phased solar minimum, too.

 

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Sugarloaf1989

Sugarloaf1989

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

He's a sheeple and the reason we enjoy ski on no lift lines days in March and April and empty beaches in September.  Ingrained in their brains and  cant think out of the box.

Mt Snow has been buzy mid-week according to friends. It's now the closest opened mountain around after today. I'm not sure if Stowe discounts tickets much, but Bretton Woods and Cannon had a good turn out last weekend when I was there with cheap tickets.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Sugarloaf1989 said:

Mt Snow has been buzy mid-week according to friends. It's now the closest opened mountain around after today. I'm not sure if Stowe discounts tickets much, but Bretton Woods and Cannon had a good turn out last weekend when I was there with cheap tickets.

Nice man. People who don't ski telling people who ski what is going on is always a kick.

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Sugarloaf1989

Sugarloaf1989

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Nice man. People who don't ski telling people who ski what is going on is always a kick.

Contrary to what disaster in tolland is peddling, the cold weather in the big cities has been keeping folks thinking about skiing. I can't remember so many places still opened into mid April.

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
33 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

were you there?   -- in DC ?  Will said he was in Jersey yesterday in that 84 air they had - can't imagine going from that to 32 and snotty drizzle.  

Frankly, I think this summer could be bad up and down the EC - despite the cold now.

These pattern residences don't typically go longer then 45 ...or 90 days in the longer sense before some other new paradigm kicks in.  "If" this late season blocking can ultimately be rooted back to the ENSO, however complexly via indirect physical processes therein... the ENSO's grip in hemispheric patterns naturally wanes as the summer thickness' normalize .. And so, much of that drive is gone in 20 days, or seriously attenuating.  This is all (in my mind) still part of the -NAO that set in March ...we're not seeing a block in the NOA domain per se - but that tendency to blocks and dips and so forth, it's hard to root that tendency elsewhere when both phenomenon tend to result in the same thing. 

But that aside, this is like the opposite of the last several years - which admittedly...is a bit more like a symbolic argument than a science one ( :o ) but if you bear with me for a sec...  We had a repeating tendency for warm spells in April's followed by Rosby replacement and cold Mays into June ..that frankly... seemed to vestigially linger into mid summer ... dimming the full extent/potential of heat waves when models had to handle them going from extended and late mid ranges into shorter scopes.   We had some heat from time to time, but it was more frequently muted as a correction.  Using this guess-work approach, having us go from a convoluted pattern to more of a laminar one with subtropical ridge expressions and a changing of the guard in global AAM - some of the hottest summers we've had along the EC were in the 1970's during the last multi-phased solar minimum, too.

 

No, thankfully-

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#NoPoles

#NoPoles

Posted
Posted

Well it's a mass exodus from cape cod today. Weather sucks, 35 degrees 20mph east wind and drizzle. Sagamore Bridge construction is just just killing the traffic situation. Took me 30mins to go 5mi and get over the bridge to plymouth. Good thing I had snacks in my car. Tomorrow looks absolutely miserable. We closed early today and will not be open tomorrow. Hoping April Vacation week draws the climbers out to the park, even though the temps look awful. 

I'm scared to think we are going to go from this pattern to 85-90 and never ending humidity...that would kill a bunch if people.

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wxeyeNH

wxeyeNH

Posted
Posted

25.7F  Precip field finally moving north of me.  About 3/4" sleet/snowgrain/freezing rain.  Roads in our town are compacted white sleet with freezing rain mixed in.  Finally, they decided to treat the roads.  I think the road agent was just hoping the April insolation would melt whatever fell.  Doesn't work too good with IP.

Now we wait to see what happens later tonight and tomorrow AM.  Looking at the Euro qpf it looks like about .5" to .7" frozen before I go above freezing mid afternoon.  The trees are already glazed so this could lead to some problems.  Landscape is white with sleet,  would that make a difference in holding the cold air in a bit longer vs. just bare ground that is not frozen.  I don't know the answer to that question.

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Weatherexpert

Weatherexpert

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Sugarloaf1989 said:

Mt Snow has been buzy mid-week according to friends. It's now the closest opened mountain around after today. I'm not sure if Stowe discounts tickets much, but Bretton Woods and Cannon had a good turn out last weekend when I was there with cheap tickets.

Mt snow has been very busy all week. I have some family members that work in management there and can possibly get people discounts.

On another note the snow is still slamming up in Waterville. I am now tired after working a night shift snow plowing and am schedule again for tonight. Thank you snow for getting me back into work c^    < that is a thumbs up

I predict snowfall all the way into mid-May. I already know now. we had false spring but when the snow doesn't leave you then you know!

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Weatherexpert said:

Mt snow has been very busy all week. I have some family members that work in management there and can possibly get people discounts.

On another note the snow is still slamming up in Waterville. I am now tired after working a night shift snow plowing and am schedule again for tonight. Thank you snow for getting me back into work c^    < that is a thumbs up

I predict snowfall all the way into mid-May. I already know now. we had false spring but when the snow doesn't leave you then you know!

 Bizarre.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

The snow was getting near 1/2SM at times. My wife sent me a video from Rockland, MA earlier and it was legit flakes in the heavier band. Unreal. On the expresssway, you could see waves of this OE precip move in with reduced vis and snow blowing around on the X-way. Temp said 30F in Woburn on the bank thermo visibile from 93 with the windward sides of my side mirrors glazed. Pretty awesome. 

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