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Napril Fools? Pattern and Model Discussion . . .


HimoorWx

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Date: 3 hour NAM valid 21Z SAT 14 APR 18
Station: KMVL
Latitude:   44.53
Longitude: -72.62
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LEV PRES  HGHT  TEMP  DEWP  RH  DD   WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E   W
     mb     m     C     C    %   C     C  deg knt   K     K     K     K    g/kg
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SFC 1000   223  -4.7                      356   6 268.5                        
  1  950   625  -7.8  -9.1  90  1.3  -8.2   1  14 269.3 269.6 267.8 274.8  2.01
  2  900  1042 -11.1 -12.7  88  1.6 -11.5  16  22 270.0 270.3 267.7 274.5  1.59
  3  850  1485  -6.0  -7.1  92  1.1  -6.4 341  12 279.9 280.3 275.3 287.3  2.63
  4  800  1963  -2.9  -3.8  94  0.8  -3.3 264  17 288.0 288.6 280.7 298.4  3.62
  5  750  2477  -0.4  -0.7  98  0.3  -0.5 246  40 296.1 297.0 285.5 310.5  4.85
  6  700  3029  -1.1  -1.4  98  0.3  -1.2 246  58 301.3 302.2 287.5 316.2  4.95
  7  650  3619  -2.9  -3.2  98  0.3  -3.1 244  67 305.7 306.5 288.7 319.9  4.64
  8  600  4250  -5.6  -6.3  95  0.7  -6.0 249  70 309.6 310.3 289.4 322.0  3.97
  9  550  4928  -9.9 -11.1  91  1.1 -10.4 254  71 312.3 312.9 289.3 321.9  2.99
 10  500  5656 -13.9 -15.6  87  1.7 -14.5 258  72 316.0 316.5 289.8 323.5  2.27

versus

Date: 9 hour NAM valid 21Z SAT 14 APR 18
Station: KMVL
Latitude:   44.53
Longitude: -72.62
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LEV PRES  HGHT  TEMP  DEWP  RH  DD   WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E   W
     mb     m     C     C    %   C     C  deg knt   K     K     K     K    g/kg
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SFC 1000   217  -2.8                      353   7 270.3                        
  1  950   621  -6.0 -13.0  58  7.0  -7.9 356  16 271.1 271.3 268.1 275.2  1.47
  2  900  1041  -9.9 -15.4  64  5.5 -11.2   5  19 271.3 271.6 268.0 275.0  1.28
  3  850  1482  -8.6 -10.2  88  1.7  -9.1 344  16 277.2 277.5 272.9 283.0  2.06
  4  800  1956  -4.2  -4.8  96  0.5  -4.4 260  14 286.6 287.2 279.7 296.3  3.35
  5  750  2470   0.5   0.4  99  0.2   0.5 242  46 297.2 298.1 286.3 312.7  5.25
  6  700  3026   0.5   0.2  98  0.3   0.4 244  64 303.0 304.1 288.7 319.8  5.56
  7  650  3617  -2.7  -3.0  97  0.4  -2.9 246  69 306.0 306.8 288.9 320.4  4.70
  8  600  4248  -7.0  -8.4  90  1.3  -7.5 248  69 308.0 308.6 288.3 318.6  3.39
  9  550  4922 -10.5 -12.2  88  1.6 -11.1 250  72 311.6 312.1 288.9 320.4  2.73
 10  500  5651 -13.2 -14.9  87  1.8 -13.8 253  76 317.0 317.4 290.2 324.9  2.40
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Ding dong, the witch is dead...

well, maybe not dead, but certainly on life support - talking the EPS, Euro...GGEM...  Ironically, the GFS is behaving like blithe marauder in a cold, lawless land.. .But the others all show the end of the Canadian shield deeper 850 anomalies begins over next weekend.  

We'll see if it sticks -

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18z 3km NAM keeping me at or below freezing until about 22-23z Monday! It definitely has that weaker double barreled look, which keeps the low level cold locked in. Could be a nasty icing situation here tomorrow night and Monday. Too bad we couldn't get a somewhat stronger secondary or this might be a blue bomb here...

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33 minutes ago, wxmanmitch said:

18z 3km NAM keeping me at or below freezing until about 22-23z Monday! It definitely has that weaker double barreled look, which keeps the low level cold locked in. Could be a nasty icing situation here tomorrow night and Monday. Too bad we couldn't get a somewhat stronger secondary or this might be a blue bomb here...

I keep forgetting you're no longer in Mass.

Down to 32.4*

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Sleet and freezing rain continue...with snow grains.  Haven't really seen as sustained a period of flakes as earlier this evening but its still cold.

Much earlier... the drive home was very slow but amazing to see such cold, dry snow/sleet combo in the max heating time of day in mid-April. 

fwtNe6h.jpg

 

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9 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Sleet and freezing rain continue...with snow grains.  Haven't really seen as sustained a period of flakes as earlier this evening but its still cold.

Much earlier... the drive home was very slow but amazing to see such cold, dry snow/sleet combo in the max heating time of day in mid-April. 

fwtNe6h.jpg

 

Sh** it looks like that here too we snow! Got called into work tonight leaving soon to plow those roads up!!

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