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Napril Fools? Pattern and Model Discussion . . .


HimoorWx

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40 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I think the true door is farther north still. Temps are still rising in southern NH, but starting to drop in western ME and northern NH.

It's been a "double boundary event" in now-cast since yesterday, yeah. 

In fact, the two may coalesce ..and the one that's presently aligning through CT/RI then goes from stationary to angrily cutting SSW later on.

Though the model resolution doesn't really show that discretely in the various products, there was a "hesitation" hinted that aligned through SNE, a behavior in the charts that lasted at least through 18z... I think we're in that sort of 'neutral zone' between.   It would not surprise me if the light to almost calm winds get an subtle flag wobbling acceleration as the vestigial northern boundary passes through here over the next four to five hours.  Something like that ... when that pulse catches up with the stationary boundary it becomes a boundary with pretty blue arrow on it...  B pressure is nearly stationary here ... probably in wait.  

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5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Expect a I am surprised post by PF Sunday night. Total crush job 

I'm not sold. The cold is impressive, but more often than not the NAM wins on the thermal profiles. The GFS can be overly optimistic on the cold aloft and warmth at the surface.

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17 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I'm not sold. The cold is impressive, but more often than not the NAM wins on the thermal profiles. The GFS can be overly optimistic on the cold aloft and warmth at the surface.

Yeah that's where I'm at.  2" of IP on April 15th would still be interesting if it has to be this cold.

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2 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Enjoyed a long walk with the pooch.  My property is snow free as of today. I can’t recall if I lost all piles in the Feb torch but we had some yesterday. Peepers peeping, things greening up.  

In a few hours it will be just a dream

Went up wawa and Saw bit of snow in woods( yesterday). Some ice on trails above 1800'

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7 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah that's where I'm at.  2" of IP on April 15th would still be interesting if it has to be this cold.

Raob 850 temps this morning showed that both the GFS and NAM were too cold across CYMW and at CAR. I think maybe more importantly ALB was +10 already, and the GFS was a full 4 degrees too cold, while the NAM was closer at +9. 

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1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

I think the models are finally starting to pick up on the warm layer a bit more.

12z early NAM and 3KM WRF both showing more sleet now finally.

 

... and overall...  I mean the NAM down this way is still horrible ...miserable... all that, but not "quite" as horrible as previous edginess -

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1 hour ago, OceanStWx said:

I'm not sold. The cold is impressive, but more often than not the NAM wins on the thermal profiles. The GFS can be overly optimistic on the cold aloft and warmth at the surface.

Time for a IPA bet? 4 pack of your choice Stake gets 8 plus by Monday night 

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NAM tries to spare the runners some...

This run shows pre warm frontal conduction moderating the temps toward 40 by dawn in Boston ... Proooobably a bit delayed in the interior (duh) but even down S near Hopkington/Rt 135 ... they may make the 40 and be rising by race start looking at these numbers.  It should be 50 everywhere along the Pike by noon although drilling rain for everyone isn't a huge bargain... It's going to be miserable but the quota of threat to health and safety seems reducing a little in this model.

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I actually like the mountains' chances better once the profile mixes out a bit later Monday in the warm conveyor. If that can turn into a pure elevation snowfall event (i.e. no warm layer aloft) then I could see some decent accumulations. 

I just have a hard time seeing the profile remaining favorable enough overnight into early tomorrow for appreciable accumulations.

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