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Napril Fools? Pattern and Model Discussion . . .


HimoorWx

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18z Nam comming in warmer than 12z for central VT on North.  I'm hoping for decent snow storm for the Killington to Stowe corridor - even though I can't ski right now with a newborn at home.  Its like rooting for the old home team even though you can't watch any of the games.

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3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Agreed on the difficulty of measuring...it should probably just be the max accumulation on the surface.

In the 2008 ice storm, we had unusually high winds for an icing event. So the ice actually became deformed at times...the below picture I took shows the phenomenon...you can certainly tell which direction the wind was blowing:

 

 

028_downsized.jpg

Reminiscent pic, though I have to go back an extra 10 years.  One of the 2 weirdest sights I encountered in that 1998 event was something similar.  (The 2nd was a utility pole with a major curve due to a side-road line extending from it - pole soon was in 3 pieces.)   A long length of phone cable had 4-5" icecicles lined up like soldiers, not uncommon in ice storms, but pole breakage had caused the cable to twist about 70 degrees so additional growth produced "hockey sticks."  By the time we saw it, another twist had created high-sticking.  (And I never snapped a pic during that storm - booooo.)

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2 hours ago, ariof said:

Uhm

Boston 2015, 45˚, headwind, rain. 3:00:07, 3000th overall

Boston 2016, 70˚, headwind, sunny. 3:03:05, 1800th overall

I just don't think this is true. Also, data. I for one am excited about it not being 70˚ on Monday. (Sorry this is getting banter-y. the EC looks downright frigid.)

Boston got 0.61" on race day in 2015.  from this distance, it looks like they might get 2-3 times that much Monday, with the heaviest coming with runners on the course.  Might make a difference.

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5 minutes ago, snowman21 said:

That's some storm in the Midwest with a wide area of blizzard warnings and tornado watches basically right next door to each other. Some of those forecast zones have a blizzard warning and severe thunderstorm watch issued for them.

There was a cell in Minnesota earlier that produced a lot of hail and a wind gust near 80 mph... with temps in the mid 30s.

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3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Crush Job incoming. 89 N 

 

My thoughts are I'm not buying the bigger snow idea (warning criteria) because I think there's going to be a stout mid-level warm layer.  Low level cold is no concern, the 925mb temps are frigid in the midst of it.  But it's the 750-800mb level that's worrisome.  I could see a lot more sleet being realized than the p-type products have.  

The moisture seems like it'll be there, though.  No QPF issues on any model.  Enough QPF that we should accumulate sleet up to a couple inches even if it never goes to snow.

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41 minutes ago, BrianW said:

[Record cold Likely Sunday] Latest data suggests that record cold high temperatures are likely on Sunday. Many areas may struggle to get much higher than the middle 30s!

 

 

30698131_1686682941426070_6428884074319839232_n.jpg

Might there be a couple of Dendrite's patented cheap midnight high's in Hartford and possibly ORH spoiling the party ?

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13 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Think a plains blizzard with 70 mph just got added to the bucket list. I know Legro has experienced one, anyone else?

I drove across Nebraska in a blizzard once. 30 mph for 6 hours, no plows, lots of cars in ditches. Can't remember how windy it was but it certainly wasn't calm.

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2 hours ago, powderfreak said:

My thoughts are I'm not buying the bigger snow idea (warning criteria) because I think there's going to be a stout mid-level warm layer.  Low level cold is no concern, the 925mb temps are frigid in the midst of it.  But it's the 750-800mb level that's worrisome.  I could see a lot more sleet being realized than the p-type products have.  

The moisture seems like it'll be there, though.  No QPF issues on any model.  Enough QPF that we should accumulate sleet up to a couple inches even if it never goes to snow.

I'm in the same boat. But I wonder what kind of precip do I/ you experience. Seems unique with this ribbon of over-running precip and where exactly it sets up. Looks like the warm layer is around 750. Let's say it warms up to 33 but only for a 1000' vertical does that mean sleet, or re-frozen mangled flakes? Either way it's going to be frozen when it hits 3500', right? How's it going to ski? Looking to chase between here (Waterville) and Jay Peak.

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9 hours ago, scoob40 said:

Might there be a couple of Dendrite's patented cheap midnight high's in Hartford and possibly ORH spoiling the party ?

Highs will def be midnight but I'm not sure they will be warm enough to ruin the party. Pretty much all guidance has 30s by midnight but a delay of 3-4 hours could cost the records I suppose. 

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