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Napril Fools? Pattern and Model Discussion . . .


HimoorWx

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13 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said:

Globals so far are still plenty warm on Saturday. Would like to just discard the NAM but I am hesitant since it’s a hi res model.

Your'e prob fine down there in SW CT for Saturday...further north may be skunked though.

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3 minutes ago, Modfan said:

Does that mean FZ chances move further south Sunday?

I'm still pretty skeptical on freezing precip right now south of about Rt 2...we'll see. I have this sneaking suspicion its going to be a lot of 33-34F drizzle. But if we're still seeing guidance show upper 20s into ORH and 32F down into central CT by tomorrow night, then I think we have to take it a bit more seriously.

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2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Next week into the weekend is brutal as well. 

If it's self destructive sun, it will be one of those deals where we shoot into the 50s and then CU everywhere. As you get past mid april 534-540 thicknesses aren't as bad. You'll probably mix well. I'd rather have blues at 850-500 compared to the pretty oranges we have above 850 on Sunday with a 1042 high pumping in frigid air. A lot of good high thicknesses do us. :lol:

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3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

If it's self destructive sun, it will be one of those deals where we shoot into the 50s and then CU everywhere. As you get past mid april 534-540 thicknesses aren't as bad. You'll probably mix well. I'd rather have blues at 850-500 compared to the pretty oranges we have above 850 on Sunday with a 1042 high pumping in frigid air. A lot of good high thicknesses do us. :lol:

Unless its a wheel of 'rhea like last May.

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7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

If it's self destructive sun, it will be one of those deals where we shoot into the 50s and then CU everywhere. As you get past mid april 534-540 thicknesses aren't as bad. You'll probably mix well. I'd rather have blues at 850-500 compared to the pretty oranges we have above 850 on Sunday with a 1042 high pumping in frigid air. A lot of good high thicknesses do us. :lol:

The problem is, when this pattern breaks we go right into swampy cheeks. 

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

Oh yeah, depends where the cutoff is. I feel like we are ripe for one of those in a few weeks.

Usually having the cutoff right over us or just north is fine and we get away with it...but plant it it our south a bit and its usually days and days of wheel-o-'rhea. Hopefully we get one of those pleasant Mays like 2007 or something, but I have this gut feeling we're gonna get screwed. This spring just feels like it doesn't want to break out. Last year's leaf-out took forever...and actually so did the previous couple years. We had all those early leaf-outs from 2009-2012 and it seems like we've recently paid the price. I think 2016 we still had a lot of bare trees in early May....we had that cold April 2016 and then the epic wheel-o-rhea the first 10 days of May 2016. Trees didn't see the sun for like over a week to start that month, lol. That month was trying to pull a 2005 and then it just abruptly ended around May 10-11th and the rest of the month was great. But the leaf-out was so late that year.

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