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Napril Fools? Pattern and Model Discussion . . .


HimoorWx

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18Z GFS is slowing the warm front on Friday now. I'm heading to the Cape on Friday/ Carver Mass area on Saturday and having my doubts on anything higher than 55, perhaps we get lucky in Carver and spike warm for a bit Saturday but not holding my breath.  I'm taking the kids to Edaville Railroad Amusement Park at 10 A.M Saturday. Some models have the temps in the 60's at opening  time down to near 40 by afternoon.   

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10 minutes ago, CTValleySnowMan said:

18Z GFS is slowing the warm front on Friday now. I'm heading to the Cape on Friday/ Carver Mass area on Saturday and having my doubts on anything higher than 55, perhaps we get lucky in Carver and spike warm for a bit Saturday but not holding my breath.  I'm taking the kids to Edaville Railroad Amusement Park at 10 A.M Saturday. Some models have the temps in the 60's at opening  time down to near 40 by afternoon.   

How old are the kids? 7 and older can climb at the heritage adventure park in sandwich, MA where I work. 

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Boy ...too bad the Pacific fell out of sync with the MJO because otherwise... this would have us breakin' April snow records with a little more then mere wonder -

 

image.png.94703d3ba8fd07afc5be8ae1cd47b999.png

And I almost do wonder otherwise, if despite the destructive larger scale circulation wave mechanics ...some vestige of that signal above is still transmitting through because those are both cold wave space value correlations but also very strong ones.   Yet, the WPO-EPO arc has to be positive - oops

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2 hours ago, #NoPoles said:

How old are the kids? 7 and older can climb at the heritage adventure park in sandwich, MA where I work. 

Not sure I can fit it in this time but I checked the website and it looks pretty cool.  Will have to keep it in mind for future trips.  My oldest son who is 9 would definitely be into it.  

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56 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

See the bdcf is putting saturday warmth in jeopardy. 

That ship sailed two days ago...

At this point, I'm .. 'slightly' intrigued by the fact that the high in Canada cut some 10 mb of pressure and is overall less massive in this 00z Euro run. It appears that's why the Euro allowed slightly longer residence of warmth, as well as a slight N adjustment to the front prior to the intervals when it re-activates as a BD... i.e., maybe less weight to wedge at the surface down here.   

Meanwhile, some guidance' have never had the front get much N of HFD-PVC, which for those areas along and N it's technically never a BD to begin with... What's going on is that a small wave scooting from the eastern GL up the St Lawrence early Friday lays a cool/stationary boundary down that aligns west to east ... roughly along N PA to NYC or N NJ.  Then, the GFS was rather anachronistic for this time of year, lifting up to ALB-PWM (or so..) bey early Saturday... probably enough that at least a pal sun and the first smell of summer air gets up to the Pike or even Rt 2 in SNE... Then, the hammer in the afternoon...etc.  The Euro's 00z behavior is a nod to that, though..   

I mean, the BD and or reactivated front ..whatever we wanna call it, that high up there moving into Ontario is more likely going to wrap around the hills and mountains and fist its way back SW all the way to Del Marva as the weekend unfolds... The question is, how long does it take to do so.  Those runs offer a glimmer of hope that Saturday may be salvageable perhaps through 18 Z for the Pike region... 

Tongue in cheek ..it's easy to throw hands and just assume the worst ... knowing our climate ,which seems at times it must maintain an actual bracket for p.o.s. misery .. perhaps uniquely endemic as a curse for some ancient geological sin that exists from circa end March to the beginning of June.  It's like the Enterprise: we are on constant yellow alert over that period of time, even in the best, albeit, rarefied years where we seem not to befall the more typical destiny of ice age bad breath out of the Maritimes. 

You know .. I've actually seen it warmer over western and northern Ontario, by a goodly margin too, than NYC on more than just a few occasions in that past. It's really like the "tuck" phenomenon happens over this region of the planetary interface with the atmosphere at all scales... not just meso goodies associated with enabling the storm deniers when a given system is trying to flip to liquid... We have to deal with tuck at synoptic scales too ... like, any way imaginable to make it misery and fulfill that p.o.s. bracket. It's almost like if you take a wound up clock, with all of it's cogs and gears churning in mechanism, then... take a peen hammer and smash it open...essentially, stopping said cogs and gears... there may be one small closed set of mechanical device(s) that still turn while the system et al is rendered non-existent.  I've seen synoptic pattern evolve away and the NE wind continues anyway... seemingly deriving power to non-abate from nothing.  There's just something about the orientation of every physical aspect of this region of the Global that wants there to be an ENE wind.  It just that at times, other forces buck that and it blows the other way - but the former base-line is always still there.. It's just being masked.  

End tongue in cheek - 

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37 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Sunday and Monday look awful. Nothing will change that.

except the 1% chance that the models dramatically adjust the timing of the high pressure intrusion ... but yeah. 

It's interesting really. The heights over Saturday rise while the front moves underneath - that's always fascinated me at the same time it's annoyed, but the unique topographical larger scale setting and the other factors associated with happenstance cold ocean and the fact that we are in the perennial continental nadir of the balanced mean flow ...all of those team up to seemingly countermand the physics of the atmosphere.  Fronts don't typically move under rising heights...that's like mathematically a no-no.. buuuuut, the defining difference is that the atmospheric interaction with those other factors seems to usurp -

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