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Napril Fools? Pattern and Model Discussion . . .


HimoorWx

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5 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

 

That's was quite a turnaround in 7 hours, lol.

Mm. no - those two posts of his refer to two different aspects entirely. 

The top one discusses a pattern that promotes back dooring ... the latter discusses more of a hemispheric look, which portends the end of winter. 

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16 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

Did mine this week.

Me too.  This is round 2. Round 1 was putting all o the dead wood into the chipper.   But I don’t lift a finger.  My landscape and snow guys do it.  Maybe if I retire I’ll take it on but lately I’m targeting age 75 for that if all goes well.

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5 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Eps says we’ve got 2 more chances. Next weekend and 19-20

My hunch is you already have the truck waxed and the spreader ready. This winter April DIT is just an attempt at being a contrarian since we all anxiously anticipate Morch Kevin every spring. Your wife probably gets to hear you say “winter’s over” every morning.

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

I said yesterday it was over. I’m not sure  what you guys mean. 

They're petty dude - they don't want it to be over, and are in fact, ... coveting a kind of desperation in the matter.  Such that when you made that statement yesterday, you gave them hope.. .then ... the follow up message, though a different subject matter, they conflate as shattering the fragile illusion you gave them yesterday and that's all your fault - that's how the psycho babble thing always goes down.

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Though unlikely ...it would be nice to get the CMC to verify that look for next Saturday ... on a weekend day no less.  Shows the anachronistic warm fropa winning against +PP over eastern Canada and deep layer SW flow, well mixed with 850 mb temperature +10 C or >  ... Not counting that freak show back in February that would be the first more serious recovery. 

But... looking at the Euro... that stuff aside, that's an amazing battle between unrelenting refusal to end winter about the 40th parallel and the onset of bigger numbers roughly south of that latitude.  The difference between southern Canada and Oklahoma at 120 hours is nothing shy of astounding...  In fact D6 shears some of the heat off up toward Missouri while we pack some 35 C at 850 between western Ontario and the lower OV... Contrast is remarkable -

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As an afterthought to that... it shows how close the conus is to really flipping scripts there.  Should that relax with the blocking just a little that warm signal could overwhelm. 

This week's been going back and forth for folks lower than the 40th for a few days.  The tele's have been flagging some sort of change ...with the PNA doing a phase reversal overlapping the NOA by 3 or 4 days, there's an opportunity for the operational runs if not verification to really warm things up. 

Persistence will more likely win and we stay on the shaft side of the mean boundary ... But again, it's definitely out there.. Probably setting us up for one of those winter to summer transition years.  F! spring -

 

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56 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

They're petty dude - they don't want it to be over, and are in fact, ... coveting a kind of desperation in the matter.  Such that when you made that statement yesterday, you gave them hope.. .then ... the follow up message, though a different subject matter, they conflate as shattering the fragile illusion you gave them yesterday and that's all your fault - that's how the psycho babble thing always goes down.

You missed your calling, Tip.  You should have been a psychology major, lol.

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2 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

You missed your calling, Tip.  You should have been a psychology major, lol.

Heh... was only kidding ...  I was actually hoping to get Steve into one of his rages ...  LOL

not serious ..   I actually don't know what it was but Scott was talking about two different things.  whatever -

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Its been more active now than it was for the rest of winter. Are u just not looking at the models?  I mean it's pretty obvious that's a good low for you?  I just don't understand.  

Maybe I’m loosing you in translation. Define good. Maybe 4”(10cms) is good in your eyes but that doesn’t impress me; even for April. If that’s the case I apologize for the miscommunication.
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