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Napril Fools? Pattern and Model Discussion . . .

HimoorWx

By HimoorWx,
in New England

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

In Steve's world glancing at a model means your "invested"

Sure everyone casually looks, but it’s git work to do.

i still think the season ended on a crummy note given the potential. To bad. At least for pike north anyways. 

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Yeah.... Tuesday looks like hot garbage, and has for a while.

Sunday is a nice system, maybe we can get the miracle tug back in the final 60 hours.

thats our only shot I think. Tuesday is dead.

Completely opposite. Much better chance Tuesday given long range look

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

Euro has an east bias over the west Atlantic, to which NCEP has noted several times since that model's last upgrade...

It's pretty commonly needing to correct west/and/or/northwest re coastal or near coastal cyclogen leaving the lower M/A when passing middle range into shorter ranges, so flags and caution are recommended re the Tuesday-Wed hand waving... 

It's the fact that the system and it's governing mechanics are and have persistently been observable in the flow ...simply a matter of amplitude/placement wrt developed features.  It is thus more likely its existence in the flow is clad ...it's the handling that's the problem.  And in part ...the problem is that it is tough to use the operational GFS as a possible corrective scheme because ..that models has a progressivity bias in the mid range - less pronounced as five years ago but does still to some degree.  The GFS ensemble mean has liked that period for almost 10 days at this point... Contrasting, the EPS is uselessly always mirroring the operational version so I tend to be less reliant on that unless the differences are overwhelming. 

Those bias' in total may be mutually exclusive for their leading causes, too ...happening to result in the same 'flat' appeal there.  Perfectly masking.  nice goin'

That's A ...B, said governing mechanics are still over the open Pacific between Hawaii and the lower GOA region where I believe the assimilation and satellite sounding are chiefly responsible for the grid initialization ...  Would like to see that get into the denser physical sensing over land, ...because...none of the following can be preclusively discounted at this time:

should more relay off the Pac; 

the western ridge pop a tad more behind;

the respective bias' correct ...

all those factors end up being a better performer in the east. 

I don't really have much of an opinion on Sunday... I can see a tendency that everyone else does.  The flow is fast again I'm noticing.  The deal on Sunday could amp slightly and clip SE zones and remain primarily an open fast moving wave, and get the hell on out of here ... such that in totality it's wave spacing doesn't interfere ... ? sure...  the flow is quick.  But, that's not a prediction over all... just that it's not beyond pragmatic imagination, having that be the way to get these events to transpire relative to the background synoptics. 

Equal plausibility neither transpires. 

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Baroclinic Zone

Baroclinic Zone

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

Can't say I have ever invested in a storm.i look at model data. Please explain how one invests in a storm and what the return rate is

Many here "invest" into model solutions emotionally thinking they will come to fruition.  Return rate is all dependent upon ones emotional stability. 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
34 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Many here "invest" into model solutions emotionally thinking they will come to fruition.  Return rate is all dependent upon ones emotional stability. 

I'm not sure I get what 'return rate' even means in that context.... ? 

Anyway, from my observation, for what limited worth that represents ... 

It seems as though the forum engagement, it's really more of a model support group, one that begins with placing some sort of personal agenda into the cinema of the modeling ... shared by others that do much in the same.  Hate to say.. it's a form of "soft group psychosis" to allow something one has absolutely no control over be any kind of impetus in making a day or moments worth it to people.  There are those that use these tools as wrenches and screw drives, with just as much compassion as those devices should represent.

Anyway, I find it interesting because it has to be a new, definable affect (if not condition) caused by exposure to the internet.  Think about it... no access to all these "tools" before 10, 15,...20 years ago. Now ...? we have a cluster of individuals where the crucible of time and exposure has distilled a tendency to circuit joy through the vagaries of the models ... cloistered around a terminal waiting on x-y-z model to scene the next show ... yank their joy-circuit, that serotonin release, that hormone that's known to psychology as the 'well-being' sensation ;)   

if folks really thought about that, they'd know it's true...and that they've probably gotten themselves into a kind of codependency there.  Others, get pissed off at the mere suggestion - 

Fun stuff... 

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weathafella

weathafella

Posted
Posted
52 minutes ago, TheSnowman said:

Wait - It's Snowing at Home?? 

 

And we have chances after today??  

 

Wow!!  I'm in Chicago on tour with Pritam, but I may be coming back early Sunday.  Or Monday mid-day.  I can choose.  What should I do?  

Don’t change your plans for the potential of April slop...lol.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I'm not sure I get what 'return rate' even means in that context.... ? 

Anyway, from my observation, for what limited worth that represents ... 

It seems as though the forum engagement, it's really more of a model support group, one that begins with placing some sort of personal agenda into the cinema of the modeling ... shared by others that do much in the same.  Hate to say.. it's a form of "soft group psychosis" to allow something one has absolutely no control over be any kind of impetus in making a day or moments worth it to people.  There are those that use these tools as wrenches and screw drives, with just as much compassion as those devices should represent.

Anyway, I find it interesting because it has to be a new, definable affect (if not condition) caused by exposure to the internet.  Think about it... no access to all these "tools" before 10, 15,...20 years ago. Now ...? we have a cluster of individuals where the crucible of time and exposure has distilled a tendency to circuit joy through the vagaries of the models ... cloistered around a terminal waiting on x-y-z model to scene the next show ... yank their joy-circuit, that serotonin release, that hormone that's known to psychology as the 'well-being' sensation ;)   

if folks really thought about that, they'd know it's true...and that they've probably gotten themselves into a kind of codependency there.  Others, get pissed off at the mere suggestion - 

Fun stuff... 

Whooooosh

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Next threat April 15th?

I think in '96 we had two decent potentials after the 10th of the month that year.  In fact I know we did... There were like two 7 days apart that were similar.  

Plus, ...sufficed it is to say ... 1987 and 1977's happen too... We just know that sort of thing is relatively to outright rare, but ...  let's think about it for a second - is there a better year where trend might parlay favorably ?   I can't think of one - 

It's interesting how the GFS and Euro have utterly switched tenors for that period...  The GFS is trying to bring an unrealistic warm sector over the easter 1/3 of the conus ...and I say unrealistic because of that same trend, but also, it has a huge +PP sprawling across central Ontario which is way more likely a wedge down to Georgia push come to shove -

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I think in '96 we had two decent potentials after the 10th of the month that year.  In fact I know we did... There were like two 7 days apart that were similar.  

Plus, ...sufficed it is to say ... 1987 and 1977's happen too... We just know that sort of thing is relatively to outright rare, but ...  let's think about it for a second - is there a better year where trend might parlay favorably ?   I can't think of one - 

It's interesting how the GFS and Euro have utterly switched tenors for that period...  The GFS is trying to bring an unrealistic warm sector over the easter 1/3 of the conus ...and I say unrealistic because of that same trend, but also, it has a huge +PP sprawling across central Ontario which is way more likely a wedge down to Georgia push come to shove -

That's a frigid look too for the ides of April. Look at that high sprawling in from Canada...typically the type of stuff we see in an overrunning event ala winters '93-'94 or maybe '08-'09. Typically we're trying to get some sort of upper level isothermal paste bomb that late in the season...usually an overrunning setup won't get it done, but man, not if that came to fruition....but obviously take it FWIW...clown range. I'm sure it will turn into a 43F misery mist weekend by the time we reach verification.

 

 

f216.gif

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