Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,507
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    SnowHabit
    Newest Member
    SnowHabit
    Joined

Napril Fools? Pattern and Model Discussion . . .


HimoorWx

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 3.4k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Yes that has been the target date for a week plus. Smart Scooter can post away in the lawn thread I am going to watch this.

 

 

Only thing that bothers me at the moment about that threat is we don't really see the midlevel conveyors get cranking until it is past our latitude on most solutions. There is certainly time to fix that at this time range...but if we're mostly trying to play with a moderate front end isentropic deal in April, then its prob gonna be something like low end advisory for interior elevations and a couple inches of slush in the grass elsewhere. 

But the longwave setup is there for something bigger so we watch. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Cold Miser said:

How did the overnight runs go?  I am guessing by the non-activity that most of not all of the 3 events have disappeared?

Maybe folks are just getting tired of the journey ... 

Not that you or anyone asked me personally... but yesterday's meme(s) were all about three events.  I never saw Friday as much of an "event," frankly, not in the sense of the word.  I thought of it as what happened just two mornings ago, with a warm frontal IB ... that however unexpected it was, managed mangle flakes and pellets for awhile - although perhaps a deg C colder, on Friday, through the profile so adjusting ptype accordingly.. When I think of 'event' it should stick out as something other purely forgettable.  

I mean if we want to call everything an event that's okay too..  I think people see blue shading on color plotted charts for ptype and it gets special band-width in their minds and so it's now an 'event' ... Ha.

Anyway, I feel pretty confident that the mid weekend thing has been way over sold by the NAM all along.. The Euro tends to correct W-NW from mid range into the shorter range; its' possible that's happening and a correction should be needed there to some degree, but I don't feel comfortable going from so flat to the grandiosity of the NAM impact.  I figure the NAM for too far NW, and the Euro to suppressed, and somewhere in between is a miss SE ... (actually I just saw the 06z NAM which may be the inevitable correction SE ... )

The event next week is still on the table. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

55 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Only thing that bothers me at the moment about that threat is we don't really see the midlevel conveyors get cranking until it is past our latitude on most solutions. There is certainly time to fix that at this time range...but if we're mostly trying to play with a moderate front end isentropic deal in April, then its prob gonna be something like low end advisory for interior elevations and a couple inches of slush in the grass elsewhere. 

But the longwave setup is there for something bigger so we watch. 

Not speaking to the whole domain but ...that event looks similar to April '97 in that way, at this time range.  I recall fairly vividly that was the case at D5 to 6 lead back in the day, and that there was a huge spread back west of the operational runs...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, mahk_webstah said:

I am forecasted to get 1-3 tomorrow.  Could be a lucky upside to 4.  Enough to burn a brush pile.  That's all I'm asking...for revenge on all that thorny brush.

2-4 progged for here.  If this wind quits, we'll launch from colder than this morning's upper teens, so early clouds would keep temps cooler, late clouds would mean most precip comes in the evening.  Still just a puppy of an event, but looking like a hit for here. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Only thing that bothers me at the moment about that threat is we don't really see the midlevel conveyors get cranking until it is past our latitude on most solutions. There is certainly time to fix that at this time range...but if we're mostly trying to play with a moderate front end isentropic deal in April, then its prob gonna be something like low end advisory for interior elevations and a couple inches of slush in the grass elsewhere. 

But the longwave setup is there for something bigger so we watch. 

Yea, the GEM last night had a late bloomer that crushed NS.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, tamarack said:

2-4 progged for here.  If this wind quits, we'll launch from colder than this morning's upper teens, so early clouds would keep temps cooler, late clouds would mean most precip comes in the evening.  Still just a puppy of an event, but looking like a hit for here. 

Thinking about Sugarloaf/Sunday River...where would you go? 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

So cold. I’m not going to lie....if we get nothing by Tuesday...sour ending to this season. To have the cold after 3/15 and 3 hrs of snow otg to show for it, sucks. 

Nothing I hate more than cold, wind and dry....especially from March 1 onward.

Had alot of that in March 2006 and March 2014 (yes, I know it was great for ginx and still no regression to mean).

Two worst.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

So cold. I’m not going to lie....if we get nothing by Tuesday...sour ending to this season. To have the cold after 3/15 and 3 hrs of snow otg to show for it, sucks. 

Yup... this weather blows. April weather in general blows. It’s cold and crappy but rarely do we put things together for a meaningful snow despite that.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Nothing I hate more than cold, wind and dry....especially from March 1 onward.

Had alot of that in March 2006 and March 2014 (yes, I know it was great for ginx and still no regression to mean).

Two worst.

Mar 2014 sucked for ginxy too. It was awful for just about all of SNE except the Cape which got a blizzard.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Everyone has their opinion re what does and does not constitute the worst weather imaginable but for me, shy of a comet impact ending it all anyway,... I have to doff my hat to whatever god thinks it is funny to have 18 straight days of 42/39 with wind driven rain, mist or grapple ...effectively claiming an entire month of May. 

I would place a sunny windy upper 30s day in April at a more distant third or even fourth place on the ole schit list, if there's anything wet involved with that temperature and wind combination, in general.  

But that's just me... 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

May 2005 PTSD.

Was it that year... ? 2006 ... yeah, 2005 I guess. 

Either way, call it what one will ... sunny weather is better than that and I suspect that's the vast consensus, both sentient and sane, would overwhelmingly agree -

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...