WinterWolf Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: I'm an empirical evidence kind of guy...everyone has a biased view of their own backyard. So the empirical evidence is an easy way to reduce the bias. We can't completely remove it since we don't have reliable data for every point in SNE. The empirical evidence though does show that the Cape gets more snow on average than the coast of SW CT. North of the merritt inland a bit? Different story...that area seems to average comfortable in the mid to high 30s (and getting into the low 40s once in the DXR to the hills around Waterbury),. I've been parsing coop data for 15+ years now and even trying to reconstruct bad data, so I've looked at snowfall in SNE probably more than anyone...so I feel pretty comfortable making that general statement. My only point was that every area can score big ...at any given time. SNE does big synoptic storms well. Ya..I was not doubting your experience or knowledge on this...just pointing out all the areas get big hits from big storms from time to time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 36 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: 3-5 Friday ends as cold drizzle 4-8” Pike south Sat night/ Sun 2-4” North Prerty easy forecast Heavy under on Friday....but yea, Sat looks good for 4+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 GFS gonna do the weekend show! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 Just now, weathafella said: GFS gonna do the weekend show! Yeah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 geezus will this winter just f*cking die Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 2 hours ago, EastonSN+ said: I love living in CT. Great beaches and Fairfield county is the richest in the country. Billions took place in Westport. However, I will admit its great being a stones throw from NYC and Yankee Stadium. great beaches? where? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 Just now, Ginx snewx said: great beaches? where? rocky neck is nice for the little ones Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 Kid has Alligator blood.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 Bump north on gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 26 minutes ago, JKEisMan said: Interesting read and related info: http://www.greatmountainforest.org/workingforest/weather/history.php New observer in 2003...that def matches what looked like the step change in the data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Bump north on gfs. Can we defeat John McClane? Maybe the 747 full of evil people takes off in our revised ending instead of blowing up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: Yep, its coming....ORH had 17 consecutive years of no below average snow seasons between 1955-1956 ad 1971-1972.....then even though the rest of the 1970s weren't that bad, starting in 1978-1979 it was a 13 year run of beast-in-the-shed mode while Cape Cod was getting 20" snowstorms every 3 years and the mid-atlantic did pretty well. Kev and I have been waiting for you scooters and Rays regression to the mean for a decade now, ever think maybe a norm has developed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 Looks cold too, another stick to roads April event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Can we defeat John McClane? Maybe the 747 full of evil people takes off in our revised ending instead of blowing up. Still landing with wrong glide scope but miracle abort landing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Kev and I have been waiting for you scooters and Rays regression to the mean for a decade now, ever think maybe a norm has developed? No, because things can go on for a while. Just look that the 1950s through the early 1970s. Cyclical behavior is not uncommon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 39 minutes ago, backedgeapproaching said: Didn't realize they averaged that much there. But you can see the change to favoring eastern areas, they haven't had a 100" season in 20 years (96-97) Seems like a long stretch to not get to 100" for a place that averages 90". They did get to 100" this year. They cleaned up in the '50/'60/'70s. But there recent per decade average is decently lower from the those glory years. The past 30 years its closer to 75-77" it seems like looking at the COOP data. 1991-2020 (so far) averages 77.0 but the median is 80.4. Doesn't help their recent average that their 5 least snowy winters, and all those with <50", have occurred during that timespan, with 15-16 leading the retreat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 I like the gfs look for Saturday... that would be a nice event here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 13 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Heavy under on Friday....but yea, Sat looks good for 4+. Fri is easy 3-5 interior CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: But a coastal front is different from deformation banding. I need to see what Steve meant. A coastal front results in low level enhancement to snow or even rain. The deformation banding is a function of forcing near the mid levels where the DGZ is usually located. I think you could argue that there is a relative climo spot for these. The typical rt 128 in MA down to near or NW of PVD into ern CT. But this is very generic and also various with every storm. So that is even tough to debate. ask Eck, relative to the rest of LI, that zone depicted on the map is a jackpot zone in coastals, western end and eastern end not so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 Soundings are meh but no need to obsess at d3. The dry nw flow though would eat at the weenie maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 I need 19.7” for 100” Next 3 storms say It’s likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 22 minutes ago, weathafella said: A friend put Ted Childs’s daughter in touch with me about 15 years ago. She had fond memories. Woah dude Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: I need 19.7” for 100” Next 3 storms say It’s likely IPA with lunch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Fri is easy 3-5 interior CT 1-2, at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 11 minutes ago, JC-CT said: rocky neck is nice for the little ones I am spoiled I guess, beaches to me are on the open ocean, have tons of white sand and no rocks with good surf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: 1-2, at best. When the hype train hasn't gone off the rails yet at 200mph...just keep increasing the speed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: 1-2, at best. For the coast yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 16 minutes ago, JC-CT said: geezus will this winter just f*cking die Ha ha ! ...I look at this way, .. and obviously the following sentiment has been replayed many times over the years, but, if April isn't going to be very nice, the alternative entertainment is to get these late snow chances. Maybe we can break some records... My own proclivity to lament April is rooted in the idea that it will be like today ... forever. I swear, not only does April weather more typically suck giant donkey ballz ... time dilation must be a measurable phenomenon while it does it! Although, ironically ...the worst of that I ever personally experienced was May, 2005... over the longer term, the only thing good about April is that without it ...we can't get to summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 Another storm next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 22 minutes ago, JC-CT said: geezus will this winter just f*cking die Only season I can compare this consistentcy of a frantic pace so late is 1996. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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