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Napril Fools? Pattern and Model Discussion . . .


HimoorWx

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5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Could be. In general though 1-3 with maybe 4-5 hills and higher spots. But it's cold with decent snow growth too. 

 

Weekend on the euro is less Bruce Willis with some N-NE flow from 925-850 in srn spots. Tough north of pike. Would like to see one jump again because the good fronto is very close by.

Just go ahead and say it....you like the 6z nam.

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South coast of CT is by far the worst spot for snow in SNE...SE coast is worst and then SW coast SW of HVN is 2nd worst. The middle south coast there def gets a bit more. The old HVN Tweed airport when it was a first order site averaged in the 34" range.

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5 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I love living in CT. Great beaches and Fairfield county is the richest in the country. Billions took place in Westport.

However, I will admit its great being a stones throw from NYC and Yankee Stadium.

 

No offense but being in the richest does nothing for me. 

SWCT is great though, tons to do...close to nyc. sure there are downsides like traffic and high cost of living but that’s practically everywhere surrounding big cities, nowadays. 

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Saturday needs a better ball of consolidated vorticity...if we can get that, then we'll ramp up the ML fronto better and improve the easterly component of the lower midlevels. This past event managed to improve inside 72 hours, so if this one can do the same thing, I will be more bullish on snows for us. But right now, I'd sell on anything more than C-1 for north of TAN-DXR line. Maybe southern peeps can pull another good event on that one.

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3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

South coast of CT is by far the worst spot for snow in SNE...SE coast is worst and then SW coast SW of HVN is 2nd worst. The middle south coast there def gets a bit more. The old HVN Tweed airport when it was a first order site averaged in the 34" range.

Yup. HVN isn’t a bad spot for snow unlike GON/WST

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5 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Yup. HVN isn’t a bad spot for snow unlike GON/WST

That region is a decent weenie spot for low level cold drain...they can fight off marine influence better than places like GON. Far SW CT near Stamford and SW isn't bad given their lack of latitude...but losing 10-15 miles of latitude hurts in an absolute sense.

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4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Saturday needs a better ball of consolidated vorticity...if we can get that, then we'll ramp up the ML fronto better and improve the easterly component of the lower midlevels. This past event managed to improve inside 72 hours, so if this one can do the same thing, I will be more bullish on snows for us. But right now, I'd sell on anything more than C-1 for north of TAN-DXR line. Maybe southern peeps can pull another good event on that one.

 Need a bump north, but it’s close to something decent CT, RI, and SE MA. It does have that March 5 2015 look though. The original Bruce Willis event. 

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7 minutes ago, dendrite said:

SW FL is nice. I wouldn’t raise kids down there, but it’s nice otherwise. The rest of the state is a dumpster fire. 

The Keys are great - my sister lives there.  Delray beach is awesome.  Parts around Orlando and near downtown are nice.  Some beach towns in the Panhandle and south of Jax are nice.  I'd never live there though my Dad and Sister do, and I went to UF.  Can't stand the climate.  And way too many right wingers.

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13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

South coast of CT is by far the worst spot for snow in SNE...SE coast is worst and then SW coast SW of HVN is 2nd worst. The middle south coast there def gets a bit more. The old HVN Tweed airport when it was a first order site averaged in the 34" range.

That can't be true. In SW CT coast we do better than RI or cape or mothras vineyard ETC. No chance those areas get more snow than SW CT coast. 

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

Pretty soon the 84-BOS corridor on SE will be shoved into the interior beast of a man shed with Hippy locking the door. 

Yep, its coming....ORH had 17 consecutive years of no below average snow seasons between 1955-1956 ad 1971-1972.....then even though the rest of the 1970s weren't that bad, starting in 1978-1979 it was a 13 year run of beast-in-the-shed mode while Cape Cod was getting 20" snowstorms every 3 years and the mid-atlantic did pretty well.

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Just now, EastonSN+ said:

That can't be true. In SW CT coast we do better than RI or cape or mothras vineyard ETC. No chance those areas get more snow than SW CT coast. 

ACK averaged 29 inches when there was a first order site there....the Cape is in the 31-36 inch range...that is more than the SW CT coast.

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

There’s the confirmation bias. 

I don't think most people realize that the Cape has some weenie seasons in there when everyone else is struggling...years like '98-'99 or '51-52...they put up a 35 or even 50 spot while places like BDR are sucking on a 15-20 spot....and then the occasional monster like 2004-2005 or 2014-2015. The Cape definitely has a higher standard deviation of seasonal snowfall though....but the average is certainly higher than the coast of SW CT. I do wish we had better data from the Cape....but we have two high quality data points on the extremes...ACK back when it was first order and then the high quality East Wareham coop near the bridge....ACK was just over 29" and East Wareham is a shade under 36".

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6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I don't think most people realize that the Cape has some weenie seasons in there when everyone else is struggling...years like '98-'99 or '51-52...they put up a 35 or even 50 spot while places like BDR are sucking on a 15-20 spot....and then the occasional monster like 2004-2005 or 2014-2015. The Cape definitely has a higher standard deviation of seasonal snowfall though....but the average is certainly higher than the coast of SW CT. I do wish we had better data from the Cape....but we have two high quality data points on the extremes...ACK back when it was first order and then the high quality East Wareham coop near the bridge....ACK was just over 29" and East Wareham is a shade under 36".

But where Easton is...he has beaten both those sights handily lately it seems...again the new averages may be different for SW CT shore..no?

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