ORH_wxman Posted April 3, 2018 Share Posted April 3, 2018 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Amazing. That snow event Saturday would shatter records in VA I would imagine. And yeah next week probably holds best potential even with it being that far out. Every setup has like 520s thicknesses, lol....even Friday is cold aloft, but the issue (esp south of pike) is the BL torching on the south wind. Usually in April we're trying to scrape by with marginal 540s thicknesses. And yeah, early next week from a larger scale synoptic standpoint is a very classic look for a snowstorm in mid-winter. A robust trough in the midwest/MS Valley running into some confluence in over NE/Quebec to hold that cold air in place. Obviously nuances in the flow and individual energy within the trough will determine whether the threat succeeds or not. But pretty classic on a larger scale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 3, 2018 Share Posted April 3, 2018 15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: GFS trying to suck ppl in it seems this weekend. still think the 9th 10th is the big dog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 3, 2018 Share Posted April 3, 2018 Next Tuesday looks to this met like a very similar setup to October 2011 storm. Same kind of evolution and obscene cold relative to time of year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 3, 2018 Share Posted April 3, 2018 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Next Tuesday looks to this met like a very similar setup to October 2012 storm. Same kind of evolution and obscene cold relative to time of year 2011. Mr Dates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 3, 2018 Share Posted April 3, 2018 12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: 2011. Mr Dates. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted April 3, 2018 Share Posted April 3, 2018 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: LOL Yeah, that date in October '12 was a similarly anomalous storm of the tropical hybrid variety. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted April 3, 2018 Share Posted April 3, 2018 26 minutes ago, Hoth said: Yeah, that date in October '12 was a similarly anomalous storm of the tropical hybrid variety. Saaaaaandy...Oh Saaandy where are you???? Bring on the last Beast in the Second week of April.....let's do this right!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted April 3, 2018 Share Posted April 3, 2018 2 hours ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Duly noted. Let's see how James and Diane fare. lol!!! 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: How many times does it take a blind man to hit a bull's eye ? ...it's simply a matter of not being statistically impossible ...i.e, time. You throw enough darts ur gonna hit a target .. eventually. Fact of the matter is ...that system may have busted on the higher totals side, where it snowed most prodigiously. Interestingly, it also under performed around the edges as far as retention and actual "sticking" of the snow - which is prooobably attributed to the lateness of the calendar date. Little critter that sort of covered both ends of the error spectrum - Kevin has actually not been too bad in a local sense. I am not talking about nailing precise amounts every time, but he's had a good eye for the most part this (never ending) season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted April 3, 2018 Share Posted April 3, 2018 1 minute ago, Cold Miser said: lol!!! Kevin has actually not been too bad in a local sense. I am not talking about nailing precise amounts every time, but he's had a good eye for the most part this (never ending) season. Ya he also was saying it was over in Mid Feb....let's not get too carried away here lmao..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted April 3, 2018 Share Posted April 3, 2018 4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Ya he also was saying it was over in Mid Feb....let's not get too carried away here lmao..... lol True. But the emotions were running high for most in Feb. (I remember myself throwing out some pretty suicidal type posts) That was just a dreadful scene all together. I guess I am talking within a week or less. Anyone can make the call 10 days out that the big one is coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 3, 2018 Share Posted April 3, 2018 Just now, Cold Miser said: lol True. But the emotions were running high for most in Feb. (I remember myself throwing out some pretty suicidal type posts) That was just a dreadful scene all together. I guess I am talking within a week or less. Anyone can make the call 10 days out that the big one is coming. I was way too low in my seasonal snowfall predictions...but I def correctly called the meltdowns in February. I knew when we got the Nina February torch, it would cause a lot of melts, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted April 3, 2018 Share Posted April 3, 2018 1 hour ago, mahk_webstah said: Man that NAM came out as if on queue. Maybe, like Trump and Sinclair Broadcasting, Kevin has gained control of the modeling and can make it spit out fake news? Tamarack please adopt me, or perhaps I will take advantage of my birthrate and take Aliya. Huh? You want to move to a place that forgot how to snow in April? (Or are you bringing it with you? ) Have not seen any 12z runs (haven't bought into those products) but 06z gfs was still 3 mix-n-mess events here thru the middle of next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 3, 2018 Share Posted April 3, 2018 Hear the beats, feel the feet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 3, 2018 Share Posted April 3, 2018 I haven't seen a JB tweet in years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted April 3, 2018 Share Posted April 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, tamarack said: Huh? You want to move to a place that forgot how to snow in April? (Or are you bringing it with you? ) Have not seen any 12z runs (haven't bought into those products) but 06z gfs was still 3 mix-n-mess events here thru the middle of next week. No I was responding to Kevin's insistence of a snowy Friday, then the NAM showing that solution, and your comments about leaving to Canada if he were President, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted April 3, 2018 Share Posted April 3, 2018 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Next Tuesday looks to this met like a very similar setup to October 2011 storm. Same kind of evolution and obscene cold relative to time of year Oh, great - another underperformer. That one brought 4.5", good for an Oct snow, poor as the forecast was 12-16. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted April 3, 2018 Share Posted April 3, 2018 7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I was way too low in my seasonal snowfall predictions...but I def correctly called the meltdowns in February. I knew when we got the Nina February torch, it would cause a lot of melts, lol. Very true. I think you, Ray and Scott had that pegged pretty early in the season, maybe even earlier that February was going to lay an egg and it did. I think the problem with that kind of set up, even though we knew from you guys that it was coming, most didn't want it to be true. Plus when it happened, it happened hard. Then there was brief talk by some of the 1st half of March being shi.itty, so the tailpipe hoses and nooses were starting to be pulled out of the closets by then. It was all very in the moment frustration with the February gloom and doom. I am not sure if anyone saw this kind of April set up happening weeks ago in the future predictions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted April 3, 2018 Share Posted April 3, 2018 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I haven't seen a JB tweet in years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted April 3, 2018 Share Posted April 3, 2018 5 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: No I was responding to Kevin's insistence of a snowy Friday, then the NAM showing that solution, and your comments about leaving to Canada if he were President, etc. Twern't me - no relatives in Canada. And as for Prez Kev, it's April and potential snow events are on a razor's edge. Tom Dewey went to bed convinced he'd be the country's next president, and we all know how that turned out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 3, 2018 Share Posted April 3, 2018 4 minutes ago, Cold Miser said: Very true. I think you, Ray and Scott had that pegged pretty early in the season, maybe even earlier that February was going to lay an egg and it did. I think the problem with that kind of set up, even though we knew from you guys that it was coming, most didn't want it to be true. Plus when it happened, it happened hard. Then there was brief talk by some of the 1st half of March being shi.itty, so the tailpipe hoses and nooses were starting to be pulled out of the closets by then. It was all very in the moment frustration with the February gloom and doom. I am not sure if anyone saw this kind of April set up happening weeks ago in the future predictions. It also briefly looked like February would be a good cold/snowy month too on long range guidance before it reverted back to a torch. March is always kind of a wildcard...no real signal in La Nina. Sometimes they are epic (1956, 1984, 2001) and sometimes they are total duds (1985, 1989, 2000, 1974, 2012)...throw 2018 into the epic group clearly this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted April 3, 2018 Share Posted April 3, 2018 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: It also briefly looked like February would be a good cold/snowy month too on long range guidance before it reverted back to a torch. March is always kind of a wildcard...no real signal in La Nina. Sometimes they are epic (1956, 1984, 2001) and sometimes they are total duds (1985, 1989, 2000, 1974, 2012)...throw 2018 into the epic group clearly this year. At least with with memories, things like snow storms, and weather events always seem to be enhanced from what you remember as a kid. Meaning, there may have been a few snowstorms that were so epic that today it makes it seem like every season was epic, which we know that was not true(especially the 80's.). I always remember March being a snowy month where I grew up near Albany. I don't have the data in front of me but I am sure it is just my brain making it seem that way due to a few nice snow events during my childhood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 3, 2018 Share Posted April 3, 2018 9 minutes ago, Cold Miser said: At least with with memories, things like snow storms, and weather events always seem to be enhanced from what you remember as a kid. Meaning, there may have been a few snowstorms that were so epic that today it makes it seem like every season was epic, which we know that was not true(especially the 80's.). I always remember March being a snowy month where I grew up near Albany. I don't have the data in front of me but I am sure it is just my brain making it seem that way due to a few nice snow events during my childhood. ALB average March snow by decade: 1940-1949...9.3 1950-1959...12.5 1960-1969...12.3 1970-1979...11.8 1980-1989...9.1 1990-1999...13.6 2000-2009...11.4 2010-2018...11.2 1980s were awful, lol. Though 1984 was pretty epic. 1990s were actually the snowiest decade for March in Albany. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted April 3, 2018 Share Posted April 3, 2018 8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: ALB average March snow by decade: 1940-1949...9.3 1950-1959...12.5 1960-1969...12.3 1970-1979...11.8 1980-1989...9.1 1990-1999...13.6 2000-2009...11.4 2010-2018...11.2 1980s were awful, lol. Though 1984 was pretty epic. 1990s were actually the snowiest decade for March in Albany. What did they get in March 1993? I assume they did well and that skews their average Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 3, 2018 Share Posted April 3, 2018 wet snow falling here now in Shrewsbury Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 3, 2018 Share Posted April 3, 2018 13 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: What did they get in March 1993? I assume they did well and that skews their average 34.3 in 1993....though it was 2nd place to 34.7 1956 and that decade had a lower average. Anyways, Friday still kind of balmy on euro...def starts as snow, but not as good as a CAD sig as some other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 3, 2018 Share Posted April 3, 2018 Euro tickling the s coast with anafrontal Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 3, 2018 Share Posted April 3, 2018 Just now, CoastalWx said: Euro tickling the s coast with anafrontal Saturday. Bruce Willis setup...i want to be 30 miles north of the qpf line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 3, 2018 Share Posted April 3, 2018 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Bruce Willis setup...i want to be 30 miles north of the qpf line DC area looks good. But yeah Nw winds at 850 are definitely worthy of Willis flags. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 3, 2018 Share Posted April 3, 2018 Just now, CoastalWx said: DC area looks good. But yeah Nw winds at 850 are definitely worthy of Willis flags. Yeah...I should have said I wanted to be 30 miles south of the qpf line, not north, lol. But anytime you have those steep northwest wind flags in the midlevels...it's time to run out to the runway with John McClane's fire sticks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 3, 2018 Share Posted April 3, 2018 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah...I should have said I wanted to be 30 miles south of the qpf line, not north, lol. But anytime you have those steep northwest wind flags in the midlevels...it's time to run out to the runway with John McClane's fire sticks. Not going to lie, will be a disappointment missing this given the setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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