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Napril Fools? Pattern and Model Discussion . . .


HimoorWx

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3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

He says the same thing everyone is...nice pattern, no guarantees.

GEFs based teleconnector flash over to deep spring ... possibly early summer post the 10th.  

I could see the latter materializing as a kind of slosh back toward unseasonably warm for two or three days before settling into a 'no-turn-back' mid spring tepidity ... 

The entire northern arc of the Pacific has decided to go destructive interference against the favorable MJO ...  I'm not sure the MJO has the power to usurp the rest of the basin, subtropics to the polar regions.. The wave is a conditionally interferening mechanical presence, i.e., when it's constructive it can really give things a boost, when destructively interfering the wave seems to have almost no noticeable effectiveness on modulating the circulation..  interesting.

Anyway, WPO, EPO, PNA, NAO all enter warm signals by the 11th of month +- a day...   Excluding the possibility that they, themselves, are in faux concert (altho this is a fourth day of consistency ) ...I really think the operational models are going to toy folk along with possibility that may or may not bear fruit and probably won't see the warm up until it's like 5-7 days.  Altho that D10 Euro shows a massive continental thickness bulge growing and poised to over take everyone in the E D10 ... hate to say, that is about dead nuts on this -

Heh, it's April... This weather pattern is enabling the neurosis enough... Eventually, July is still waiting here - shy of a comet impact or Yellowstone's caldera showing up to the party ... folks are going to lose this battle ;)  I mean it does this, in models and mass-fields... at some magical interval every year, sometimes earlier ..sometimes later. Which ever aside, this is as good a candidate for said interval as I've ever seen.

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39 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Tips been looking for spring signs since Feb, hope this one works out for him . Saturday was awesome but these one day teases need to be a week long

Lol I know...it’s not ready yet...false signals up to now, and probably a bit longer.  

 

Spring is coming no doubt...So is summer...but lots of crap weather to go through first(aside from a day or two/three here and there) as is most always the case.  

Let’s get one last blast... and then bring the decent spring weather.

 

tomorrow gonna be miserable..cold damp rain..the worst. 

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