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Napril Fools? Pattern and Model Discussion . . .


HimoorWx

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6 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

18z a little south and not as robust.. but I would lock it in if I could still a nice dump... Going to change a bunch of times..

It’s a foot of snow.  Color me not surprised we’re moving away from 2 feet nearing 4/10.

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On 3/31/2018 at 9:26 AM, tamarack said:

My recollection from 1982 is that the storm hit on the day of the Yanks' opener, not the day before.  I recall reading that at the time of the scheduled first pitch, NYC was reporting 25° with SN+ and 6" new.

And our area avoids WINDEX events like we do with warm season severe.  The last one here wasn't late season by the calendar (Jan. 28, 2010) but it was the last real powder we saw until the next winter.  Does that make it "late season?"

Had to laugh (hollowly) at the 06z gfs - while the GYX discussion talked of possible significant snow for the northerly portion of their AFD, that model run a torch-deluge with temps 50s to near60.

The cold was so prolonged in April 1982 I have to think more than just the home opener was snowed out.

 

Meanwhile new forecasts are for up to 6" of snow here tomorrow morning.

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Just now, Snow88 said:

The flow isn't progressive with the one rising. Kevin is right.

The models always do this in the mid range. Show a storm , lose it and then bring it back.

You have another low on its heels so it is progressive. The question is does it come far enough north from its srn origins.

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8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Could be some pellets tomorrow, maybe ZR nrn ORH hills?

Yeah looks sneaky residual cold from this air mass as that isentropic lift rolls in.  I'm wondering if we see like an inch of SN/IP here first.

No big deal but negative is the timing is afternoon.  If it came in at like 4am it might be1-3" for NNE.

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1 minute ago, Sugarloaf1989 said:

5.5" in Central Park, most snowfall in April since April 1982.

And that’s probably low. After 9am apparently nothing was measured even though there was still at least moderate snow around. JFK had an absurd 3.7”. Most totals around here are about 6”, so Central Park at least wasn’t terrible. 

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