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Napril Fools? Pattern and Model Discussion . . .


HimoorWx

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Another battleground month is on tap!  Will we have a true month of Napril to compensate for the month of No-Morch?  Will the forecasts of DIT, Snow88 and Blizz24 win against logic and rational thought?  Will miserymist win the day over peepers and petunias?  So far, all we know for sure is that I don't want snow on the 5th and Bob doesn't want snow on the 13th!  Everything else is TBD!

Discuss amongst yourselves . . . 

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52 minutes ago, HimoorWx said:

Another battleground month is on tap!  Will we have a true month of Napril to compensate for the month of No-Morch?  Will the forecasts of DIT, Snow88 and Blizz24 win against logic and rational thought?  Will miserymist win the day over peepers and petunias?  So far, all we know for sure is that I don't want snow on the 5th and Bob doesn't want snow on the 13th!  Everything else is TBD!

Discuss amongst yourselves . . . 

It's amazing what an epic battle that is...too

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In all serious and risking my usual proclivity for subversively snide humor ... I am on the fence for another substantive snow event before this season is really and truly written into the annuls and moved on... (notwithstanding ...that semantic bs about what is and is not a substantive snow in April).

-- trend... trend is friend, for cold/winter storm enthusiasts... well, just call them 'snow geese' :)   despite warmish today... and probably April sun searing off-set pleasant tomorrow, the hemispheric look has been persistently on the chilly side.

-- the blockiness aoa the 50th to 70th parallels isn't going anywhere over the next 10 days.  

These two facets may, and probably really are, interconnected... but sufficed it is to say, seeing as we've observed snows ...sometimes big, right through the first week of May around these latitudes and longitudes, I wouldn't exactly think that 2nd point is a bad canvas.  The tele's as is/are/have been...continue with an Archy signal ... past the 8th, said signal is history and if April has a balm blast out there say 10th to mid month...it both would not surprise me, but would probably not even be shown on present operational versions anyway.  neither would any over-achieving cold complexion prior to the 8th in the same vein.  Sometimes these 'probabilities' don't really get evident until some up-start S/W takes a favorable track. in fact, that D8 GFS could get under our latitude and that would do it.

-- models and even their ensemble means will at times give off faux impressions of regressing back to winter at this time of year.  con that is always in play post the Ides of Marches.

-- i want a snow bomb storm.  people's patience' (not talking present company, but everyone else in society) are nearing apoplexy for this inability to get balmy days going so far this year.  whether this is justified climate expectations or not, there is a definite intolerance to cold and gray gaining momentum, so the entertainment value is there.  however, since i want to see that ..therein is a purely scientific and utterly rational basis to assume it won't happen.  most likely result is too cold to enjoy spring and too warm to snow...  

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The WPO being negative as we head through this...

ECMF_phase_51m_full.gif

 

Is a constructive interference pattern from the west Pacific all the way to Alaska, given time...

Such that the PNA could be underdone - ...if so, that would obviously transitively effect the orientation of the PNAP component (perennial north american pattern), both the models/means.  That's code for more amplitude ...either in the runs or about to emerge.  

However, this is April man - that big menacing yellow thing eye-balling the earth N of the Equator has a way of interfering.  The daily absorption of insolation is a modulating influence now and going forward.  So, ...the gist of it is that with that factor removed, I'd be setting us up for either an event or an active period...  That's why I'm on the fence.  man

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4 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

I truly don't.  

well... if we're telling the truth then, neither do I - not that you do, but I don't fight things.  If the indicators say x then it's x. 

x in early Feb = fair to above average chances for a bigger cold event(s).   

x in early Apr = almost as much chance the atmosphere just up suddenly normalizes, mutating the signal into nothing more than a BD generator and a heat wave in west TX.  

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58 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

This is for @Damage In Tolland and @Snow88

:weenie::weenie::weenie: 

This would cause mass anger and violence amongst the population were this to ever verify.

sn10_acc.us_ne.thumb.png.c48ae79bb85722688970b8286d929f55.png

Torn. I REALLY want warm temps and spring, but would also like something like this to pad the numbers a bit.

There is some support from the EURO and GFS, but less impact.

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

despite our conversation... the 12z Euro looks pretty good for convection near wednesday - man, this shocking ability for the models to put out depictions that counter these thread motifs has been amazing all season really -

It's all in NNE on the Euro

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4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Overall for April it's meh, those rates ain't gonna cut it for anything other than nuisance value

The reason why i could care for it here now, Its more of a nuisance then anything as well as down your way for sure, Not in Northern Maine though.

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6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

2-3 potential snow events SNE. Not much more you could ask for at this lead time. Powder or tree topplers? Time will tell. Will be fun to track

Your making this sound like more than it is at the moment.  At this moment it’s really nothing at all...like Ginxy said..it’s meh verbatim.  So what if we see a few wet snow flakes in the air Sunday night that make the roads wet..big deal.  

I mean if something significant comes up later next week, that’s different.  Right now it’s nothing impressive.  

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11 minutes ago, dryslot said:

The reason why i could care for it here now, Its more of a nuisance then anything as well as down your way for sure, Not in Northern Maine though.

LR day 8/9 has the most potential. Temps are marginal at best Monday. Euro has the day 8 system suppressed but that's the one to watch for potential. Others are marginal weak type systems that would be nice in January Feb

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