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15 minutes ago, Ace said:

I agree 100%. Wherever this split occurs there is gonna be some unhappy weenies. Take a look at the FGEN showed by the 12KM Nam. Looks good for our immediate area, but can easily verify a bit north.

namconus_temp_adv_fgen_700_neus_14.png

NAM, both 12k and 3k has the shaft subsidence area being in a narrow zone around I-78. I think it'll be a fairly narrow area between the northern and southern heavy precip areas, but great fronto like shown above means subsidence around it. It'll be a nowcast situation I think but the 3k NAM being so consistent about it makes me think I-78 might be a 2-3" area while both sides get amounts to 6". The HRRR is even more insistent on the northern band/southern subsidence and doesn't have the southern max the NAM has. It may be the HRRR being what it is but the best place to be for this by far IMO is SW CT/Rockland/northern Westchester/N NJ, probably up to I-84. 

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13 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

New RGEM pretty unimpressive with totals near the NYC metro.  About 3 everywhere or so.

image.png.5762df18f003dc41ec9a3097101e5c8e.png

Its been unimpressive for this event for awhile although this run cut down the totals for central Jersey a good bit. Not too sure what to make of it, but considering radar trends, NAM's consistency, short range model depictions, I won't put too much weight on it.

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1 minute ago, Ace said:

Its been unimpressive for this event for awhile although this run cut down the totals for central Jersey a good bit. Not too sure what to make of it, but considering radar trends, NAM's consistency, short range model depictions, I won't put too much weight on it.

I think that’s out to lunch somewhat. This’ll be very dynamic and produce for someone. It’ll just happen over 4-5 hours since it’s moving like a rocket. 

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6 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I think that’s out to lunch somewhat. This’ll be very dynamic and produce for someone. It’ll just happen over 4-5 hours since it’s moving like a rocket. 

Yeah definitely. RGEM dampens the storm as it moves east pretty drastically leading to the low precipitation totals. I believe NJwx85 mentioned it before, but its been erratic this winter. Should be a fun morning for those of us that get lucky and get into those higher rates

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8 minutes ago, Ace said:

Yeah definitely. RGEM dampens the storm as it moves east pretty drastically leading to the low precipitation totals. I believe NJwx85 mentioned it before, but its been erratic this winter. Should be a fun morning for those of us that get lucky and get into those higher rates

The hi res RGEM looks a lot more like the NAM over the last few runs and is more realistic. There’s some good precip heading into PA now and most models don’t have it dying out. It should also take in Atlantic moisture as it gets here. Problem is the hi res RGEM also has the banded NAM look with the north band shooting over NYC and subsidence over the city/I-78 corridor. The Euro (also hi res) having it not that way and more even is somewhat better but this’ll be a nowcast situation for sure. 

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2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

The hi res RGEM looks a lot more like the NAM over the last few runs and is more realistic. There’s some good precip heading into PA now and most models don’t have it dying out. It should also take in Atlantic moisture as it gets here. Problem is the hi res RGEM also has the banded NAM look with the north band shooting over NYC and subsidence over the city/I-78 corridor. The Euro (also hi res) having it not that way and more even is somewhat better but this’ll be a nowcast situation for sure. 

Honestly, when is it NOT a nowcast situation? I literally hear someone say that for every single storm. 

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6 minutes ago, BombsAway1288 said:

Honestly, when is it NOT a nowcast situation? I literally hear someone say that for every single storm. 

It’s just been a crazy difficult season to forecast, even for NYC standards when we’re often on the western/northern etc end of the action. We’re definitely in the good swath now but there’ll likely be relative winners and losers here. 

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10 minutes ago, BombsAway1288 said:

Honestly, when is it NOT a nowcast situation? I literally hear someone say that for every single storm. 

Lol :lol:. All of our snowstorms are nowcast situations unless we have a weak clipper and even those can suprise. Models can give us general details and a decent idea of what is going to happen. However, hammering out specifics is tough to do unless the storm is happening at the moment. Banding features can be difficult to pinpoint where they are gonna end up. Even across small distances we can have drastic differences in rates.

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26 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

It’s just been a crazy difficult season to forecast, even for NYC standards when we’re often on the western/northern etc end of the action. We’re definitely in the good swath now but there’ll likely be relative winners and losers here. 

Why can't we get storms with a general nice swath of snow anymore?  These banding situations seem to be occurring far more often now.  Although I wouldn't consider a 3" snowfall a "loser"- especially considering what time of year it is.

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9 minutes ago, Paragon said:

Why can't we get storms with a general nice swath of snow anymore?  These banding situations seem to be occurring far more often now.  Although I wouldn't consider a 3" snowfall a "loser"- especially considering what time of year it is.

Definitely not. Any snow on April 2 is a big win. 

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32 minutes ago, Ace said:

Lol :lol:. All of our snowstorms are nowcast situations unless we have a weak clipper and even those can suprise. Models can give us general details and a decent idea of what is going to happen. However, hammering out specifics is tough to do unless the storm is happening at the moment. Banding features can be difficult to pinpoint where they are gonna end up. Even across small distances we can have drastic differences in rates.

What will it take to not have a "nowcast" situation? Complete model consensus 6 hours out with the same amount of precip for all on each model?

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Instead of myself covering this event, my wife is in NYC (Chelsea Market area) on a business trip, ironically.  She will be up at 7 am and walking a mile to a class by 9 am.  When we said "goodnight", I asked her to take a couple pics, and to expect around 3" of snow...give or take an inch.  Fully expect higher totals outside the metro areas.

Edit:  While I wish I was there (love the relatively rare events), she is hating the idea of snow/cold in April.  

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4 minutes ago, ncforecaster89 said:

Instead of myself covering this event, my wife is in NYC (Chelsea Market area) on a business trip, ironically.  She will be up at 7 am and walking a mile to a class by 9 am.  When we said "goodnight", I asked her to take a couple pics, and to expect around 3" of snow...give or take an inch.  Fully expect higher totals outside the metro areas.

Manhattan will be tough for any decent totals. Hopefully the Park can come out with 2” or so (although with the way they typically measure, who knows)

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2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Manhattan will be tough for any decent totals. Hopefully the Park can come out with 2” or so (although with the way they typically measure, who knows)

Agree, wholeheartedly.  Thinking 2-4 is still a good educated guess, at this point. Just need those higher rates moving into the city.  Was there at Central Park for the last event, and can appreciate the sentiment and frustration regarding official measurements at the park.   

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And wow did the hi res RGEM jip I-78, southern NYC and much of Long Island this run. It goes banded like crazy once this gets east of I-81. Split screwjob in full effect on that run.

It owes me probably 20" of snow from this March's screwjobs down here but hopefully the radar stays this solid in a few hours. 

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42 minutes ago, ncforecaster89 said:

Instead of myself covering this event, my wife is in NYC (Chelsea Market area) on a business trip, ironically.  She will be up at 7 am and walking a mile to a class by 9 am.  When we said "goodnight", I asked her to take a couple pics, and to expect around 3" of snow...give or take an inch.  Fully expect higher totals outside the metro areas.

Edit:  While I wish I was there (love the relatively rare events), she is hating the idea of snow/cold in April.  

Most sane people are.

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It’ll be interesting to see how many hours this takes to melt with soil temps in the 45-50 degree range, air temps roughly the same right after the event, and a max sun angle in the mid 50’s.

39 here with a slight upward trend.

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