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bigshaq00

spring snowstorm 4/7 -4/8

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25 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

It’s the NAM.  We’ll be lucky to be partly cloudy!

Nam has actually consistently outperformed other models for our various events this winter and spring. It’s by far the best model inside 60 hours. 

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41 minutes ago, snowlover91 said:

Nam has actually consistently outperformed other models for our various events this winter and spring. It’s by far the best model inside 60 hours. 

It keeps giving me snow I don’t get.  Ergo, it sucks!  Lol

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1 hour ago, Cold Rain said:

It keeps giving me snow I don’t get.  Ergo, it sucks!  Lol

It's your own fault.  Anyone who lives in the South and starts a sentence with, "Ergo" never gets snow.

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3 hours ago, Cold Rain said:

It keeps giving me snow I don’t get.  Ergo, it sucks!  Lol

Checking soundings and ignoring those clown maps would give you a much better idea what it’s showing ;)  As of right now it’s a nice cold rain for RDU so you should be happy with that! 

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5 hours ago, snowlover91 said:

Checking soundings and ignoring those clown maps would give you a much better idea what it’s showing ;)  As of right now it’s a nice cold rain for RDU so you should be happy with that! 

He know's that. Trust me.

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As discussed, nothing to get excited about. But it could get interesting in the fact of just seeing wintery precip fall in April. 

From RAH:

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
655 AM EDT Fri Apr 6 2018

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>041-071100-
Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-
Orange-Durham-Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe-Davidson-Randolph-Chatham-Wake-
655 AM EDT Fri Apr 6 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

A short burst of winter precipiation is possible Sunday morning as a
low pressure system exits the area. Precipiation will likely fall as
snow or sleet. Minimal impacts are expected.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

$$

 

My grid forecast:

Saturday Night
Rain, possibly mixed with sleet before 8pm, then a chance of sleet between 8pm and 3am. Low around 30. North wind 6 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Little or no sleet accumulation expected.
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some weather models are showing 3-5 inches of snow for central north Carolina, i don't think its going to happen but i really want it to. 

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27 minutes ago, bigshaq00 said:

some weather models are showing 3-5 inches of snow for central north Carolina, i don't think its going to happen but i really want it to. 

As JoshM embedded NAM 3K above - best guess at reality for now

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam3km&region=seus&pkg=asnow_ferrier&runtime=2018040612&fh=51

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1 hour ago, Coach McGuirk said:

Stripe of 6 inches from NENC to SEVA on the 3M NAM.  Won't be 10:1 ratios though.  So maybe more like generally 1-3.

I don't like the trend towards a slower Arctic front. Ideally we have a slow, strong storm, and speed up the front. The track's great though, so you never know. Once it hits 35 degrees or so, precipitation type is going to be hard to predict.

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unless I'm in Banner Elk or top of Mount Mitchell, im not counting on anything

Will love to be proven wrong but I'll be surprised to see any snowflakes in Greensboro

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20 hours ago, JacobNC said:

Is it wrong that I get satisfaction from how the models teased DC this week?

Nah, it's fine. Most of us got satisfaction at the fact that models trended SE and screwed NYC for this storm, until it trended too weak even for us

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Had a couple of loud house shaking boomers last night, I have .80" in the gauge but I think I didnt dump it after the .15" we got the other day...so call it .65" last night most models give me another 1" of so this afternoon and evening.

 

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