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SchaumburgStormer

April 2018 General Discussion

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ORD tied record low of 31 (1958, 2008) and set new record for lows of 32 or lower in month of April with 16 days. RFD tied record low of 27 from 1958 and will finish with 19 days with lows of 32 or lower, tied for 2nd most on record for April with 1918. Record is 20 days set in 1907.

Based on where monthly average temperature is as of 4/28 and the addition of another below normal day today due to the cold lows, it appears that this month will finish as 4th coldest April on record at ORD and 2nd coldest on record at RFD. It really stands out at ORD, where this will be coldest April since the climate site has been inland. Including 2018, there will only be 5 Aprils in top 20 coldest Aprils for Chicago (2018, 1950, 1983, 1975, 1961) that were observed at MDW or ORD. 1982 will move to 21st coldest April.

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32 minutes ago, Chambana said:

Bo, What’s your current snowdepth? 

It's starting to vary a lot, but anywhere from 12-18" is the average... with the ground opening up in a few spots. With a high today 65, 71 tomorrow and 74 Tuesday, all but the piles will be gone, I think.

Taken this morning

IMG_5670.thumb.JPG.6c96bb1a60be980acd6c5084655aaf5e.JPG

 

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2 hours ago, RCNYILWX said:

ORD tied record low of 31 (1958, 2008) and set new record for lows of 32 or lower in month of April with 16 days. RFD tied record low of 27 from 1958 and will finish with 19 days with lows of 32 or lower, tied for 2nd most on record for April with 1918. Record is 20 days set in 1907.

Based on where monthly average temperature is as of 4/28 and the addition of another below normal day today due to the cold lows, it appears that this month will finish as 4th coldest April on record at ORD and 2nd coldest on record at RFD. It really stands out at ORD, where this will be coldest April since the climate site has been inland. Including 2018, there will only be 5 Aprils in top 20 coldest Aprils for Chicago (2018, 1950, 1983, 1975, 1961) that were observed at MDW or ORD. 1982 will move to 21st coldest April.

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When does LOT resume frost/freeze headlines?  Hopefully not until fall (lol) but if there is a frost/freeze in May?

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Looks like MLI tied the record low at 27.  Hit 28 here.  

Should make a run at 80 tomorrow and Tue, which would be the first of the season.  Biggest change will be the first bout of 60+ dews which should arrive by Wednesday.  Looks like Thu will be our best shot at meaningful convection, but can't rule out Iowa sloppy seconds Wednesday/Wednesday night.

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When does LOT resume frost/freeze headlines?  Hopefully not until fall (lol) but if there is a frost/freeze in May?
Based off very low growing degree days thus far, we were going to have headlines starting as of April 30th and onward.

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RECORD EVENT REPORT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
432 PM EDT SUN APR 29 2018

...RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE SET AT INDIANAPOLIS IN...

 A RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 30 DEGREES WAS SET AT INDIANAPOLIS 
TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 31 SET IN 1977. RECORDS AT 
INDIANAPOLIS BEGAN IN 1871.

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2 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

DVN sitting at 66/14 with a humidity of 13%.  That's about as low as it gets around here.

Speaking of the low dews, LOT issued this update for tomorrow.  

 

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
851 PM CDT Sun Apr 29 2018

.UPDATE...
851 PM CDT

Have made some adjustments to dewpoints tomorrow. Day shift went
solidly above guidance for high temps Monday and latest RAP/HRRR
runs strongly support this adjustment and in fact is coming in
even a couple degrees warmer still. The RAP/HRRR tend to perform
quite well with 2m T/Td forecasts in situations like tomorrow with
late moisture return and strong WAA. Have adjusted dewpoints down
Monday, but am still a good 5F+ higher than latest RAP guidance
would support.

These changes support support issuance of a red flag warning, for
further details see the Fire Weather section of the AFD below and
the RFWLOT and FWFLOT.

- Izzi

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9 hours ago, snowstormcanuck said:

Little backwash from that ul over up-state NY dropped a few tenths of an inch of snow this morning imby. Should be it for the winter of 2017-18. Good riddance.

I missed it as I was still asleep. Nothing on the ground when I woke up a few hours later.

Today's snowfall is the 12th day this month at YYZ with at least a trace. And this April is the coldest at YYZ since 1975 and the wettest on record with over 150 mm (5.9") of total precip. Records began at YYZ in 1937.

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It's been an impressive April in terms of cold. And as if to emphasize the point we managed to hit a low of 27 last night.

I must say I was surprised we pulled out a record wet April around southern Ontario. It didn't feel like there were that many days of rain this month, I suppose most of it came during the kitchen sink storm mid-month.

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10 hours ago, Toronto4 said:

I missed it as I was still asleep. Nothing on the ground when I woke up a few hours later.

Today's snowfall is the 12th day this month at YYZ with at least a trace. And this April is the coldest at YYZ since 1975 and the wettest on record with over 150 mm (5.9") of total precip. Records began at YYZ in 1937.

This April will finish as the second coldest April on record at YYZ with a mean temperature of ~38F. We also recorded 18 days with a low temperature of 32F or below this month vs. the average of 13 days. Good riddance to this month and winter 2017-18. These next few days are just amazing and a long time coming. B)

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Saw a fairly significant smoke plume in the western sky when I was out on my lunch break earlier.  Wasn't able to investigate it but it looked like it was somewhere west of the Lansing, IL airport (KIGQ)

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82 here. Some small fires have been reported here but they have been put out pretty quickly. I am surprised though by the lack of red flag warnings around here. I don't know if fits because of a lack of fuel as the fields aren't in yet or what. It's just odd.

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Considering most models performance with temps today, little reason to doubt low 80s around here tomorrow and maybe even a shot at mid 80s (84-85) if everything were to go perfectly.

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Just a few hours left of this horrible month, one of if not the worst Spring month I've seen. Even today was slightly too chilly but the past two days were perfect blue skies. May better be fantastic (haven't had a good one in many years). Tomorrow when it starts not only will we be way past 20ºC for the first time this year (false alarm last week), but also ushering in a new regime of trackable and warm weather.

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2 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Considering most models performance with temps today, little reason to doubt low 80s around here tomorrow and maybe even a shot at mid 80s (84-85) if everything were to go perfectly.

Robust RAP

RAPMW_sfc_temp_021.png.3a4f3c0ede74d8bf489a31cbb93fda6c.png

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6 hours ago, Minnesota_storms said:

86F today. Forecast was 80F. Wonder if it would have reached 90F if this morning had no clouds. 

Several convection-allowing models show storms developing at the IA/MN border with heavy rain after 00z tomorrow (Tuesday night). The 3km NAM has 1700 J/kg of CAPE, and 60 dew points extending the WI/MI border, so I expect SPC to put a slight risk for severe up to the IA/MN border. Chance for heavy rain in southern Wisconsin

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April 2018 mean average temperature rankings. Impressively cold month.

Alpena, MI: 33.5˚ coldest on record

Chicago, IL: 41.2˚ 4th coldest on record

Des Moines, IA: 44.4˚ 5th coldest on record

Dubuque, IA: 38.8˚ coldest on record

Duluth, MN: 32.8˚ 6th coldest on record

Flint, MI: 39.1˚ coldest on record

Fort Wayne, IN: 44.1˚ 7th coldest on record

Grand Rapids, MI: 40.1˚ 4th coldest on record

Green Bay, WI: 35.3˚ 2nd coldest on record

Indianapolis, IN: 47.1˚ 8th coldest on record

La Crosse, WI: 39.3˚ tied with 1874 for coldest on record

Madison, WI: 37.6˚ tied for 2nd coldest on record

Marquette, MI: 28.2˚ coldest on record

Milwaukee, WI: 38.9˚ 5th coldest on record

Minneapolis, MN: 37.6˚ 4th coldest on record

Moline, IL: 43.1˚ 3rd coldest on record

Peoria, IL: 45.1˚ 6th coldest on record

Rockford, IL: 40.4˚ 2nd coldest on record

South Bend, IN: 39.9˚ 2nd coldest on record

 

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Would surely have set even more records if not for the last-gasp warmup. Good riddance. Grass is finally turning green, although it's going to be back to brown in a hurry if this week's rain doesn't pan out.

As much as I hated the mid-month snow, I'm sure the melt was vital to getting some soil moisture to green things up given how little precip we have had since.

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9 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Would surely have set even more records if not for the last-gasp warmup. Good riddance. Grass is finally turning green, although it's going to be back to brown in a hurry if this week's rain doesn't pan out.

As much as I hated the mid-month snow, I'm sure the melt was vital to getting some soil moisture to green things up given how little precip we have had since.

I agree with that. I wonder if the reason why the grass didnt green up before the mid-month snow is because of lack of moisture not temperatures. I do think if this rain pans out like its forecast,everything is going to go insane. Hopefully the trees start to bud and leaf out.

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Nice cluster of storms this morning. Had a brief burst of small hail(so small I'm pretty sure sleet is bigger). For the first time this year, I can feel the moisture in the air. Finally.

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I'm enjoying the warmth so far, 24ºC already! :wub: My high is suppose to be 26ºC. Of course the first 20ºC reading was easily reached in the UW station contest but even I'm surprised it was at 10:00 am which blows away the previous 20 first 20C times (earliest was 11:45 am). There aren't too many May first 20ºC readings in the records. 3 years ago today it was around 30ºC (Humidex to 33C) IMBY so it could always still be better.

Did anyone notice the end of the 18z GFS run yesterday? It was beyond 348 hours however it was showing a ridiculously powerful low in the southern prairies and a powerful ridge over us in the east. I don't recall ever seeing that kind of thing modeled in mid-May. What kind of severe would take place in the northern Plains? Then of course a historic winter storm in SW Montana :huh:. It would be a dream for such a synoptic setup. The 00z run after showed the exact opposite in fantasy land with the worst possible 500 mb pattern.

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