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April 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208

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Another great radiational cooling morning on Long Island. ISP has just recorded the 19th day in April with a low temperature under 40. This is the 4th highest number of days.

April lows under 40 at ISP

#1...22 days......1975...1972...1965

#2...21 days......1971...1968

#3...20 days......2003....1976....1967....1966

#4...19 days......2018....1992

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5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Another great radiational cooling morning on Long Island. ISP has just recorded the 19th day in April with a low temperature under 40. This is the 4th highest number of days.

April lows under 40 at ISP

#1...22 days......1975...1972...1965

#2...21 days......1971...1968

#3...20 days......2003....1976....1967....1966

#4...19 days......2018....1992

..yeah another frosty morning out here(KFOK down to 25*..I'm @ 30*)..could this be the last one??..hopefully

it is..well, for April at least..but next weeks warmup will be a welcome change.

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The NAM in particular and to a lesser degree the GFS are signaling elevated convection tomorrow, with SSW flow at 925 advecting in some unstable air.  NAM is unsurprisingly stronger and further west with the convection.

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2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

That's all NYC needs to go over 5.00" for the 3rd month in a row. Currently sitting at 4.45" for May. This would be the first 3 months in a row since late 2011.

some models (GFS and NAM) showing some showers possible for Friday so if tomorrow busts, there is another chance Friday.  Interestingly the EURO has nothing at all for Friday.

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5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Euro is dry-has .5 or less for most and .2 or less HV and Western CT.   Interesting battle shaping up.

Yeah we saw the same thing with the globals last storm, which all ended up busting terribly.

Convective potential along the warm front is often under modeled. 

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18z GFS caught on to the WAA signal tomorrow morning. HRGEM, RGEM, Deep Thunder and RPM have all consistently painted 1-2” for the city. HRRRx looks primed too. Nice lapse rates advect in early with the low level warming on a 50kt LLJ so there should at least be heavy rainers and a few embedded thunderstorms. 

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37 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

18z GFS caught on to the WAA signal tomorrow morning. HRGEM, RGEM, Deep Thunder and RPM have all consistently painted 1-2” for the city. HRRRx looks primed too. Nice lapse rates advect in early with the low level warming on a 50kt LLJ so there should at least be heavy rainers and a few embedded thunderstorms. 

RGEM has a 4 inch jack just north of NYC

rgem_apcpn_neus_33.png

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