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April 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208

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Next 8 days averaging 46degs., maybe 3 or 4 degrees BN.

GFS has trace of snow over the next 10 days---actually just 0.30" total precipitation anyway.  CMC has temps.  that are 30 degrees less than the GFS and snow on the 14th.!  Definitely a pattern change confusion.

Rossby Wave Train Theory has AN heights into last week of April, starting shortly.  Most of May is BN.  The  M,J,J period is suppose to be BN too, for New England/Northeast.

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With another full day of guidance behind us, it is now abundantly clear that what had previously looked like a storm threat, now looks much less likely. First, the system will not develop much until it has been swept offshore. Second, the bulk of the precipitation will be light and associated with the passage of a strong cold front.

Behind the cold front, Sunday morning could see the coldest temperatures so far this month. There is even a possibility that the thermometer could dip to 32° in Central Park where the lowest reading this April has been 33°.

There remains a small chance that Monday or Tuesday next week could receive a minor snowfall. Afterward, a warming trend should commence for the remainder of the week.

New York City’s Average Temperature Through:

4/5 43.6° (4/5 estimate: 43.4°-44.6°; 5.0° below normal)
4/10 42.0°-44.4° (4/5 estimate: 41.9°-45.5°)
April 15: 45.0°-48.6°

Per aggressive sensitivity analysis, the estimated probability of an below normal monthly anomaly: 55% (4/5 estimate: 53%)

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6 hours ago, nzucker said:

Central Park may get a hard freeze on Sunday morning, 4/8. Would that be significantly later than the 2000s average last freeze?

 

Good question.  The other thing I'm wondering is if NYC will make it on to the top 10 list of latest 70° readings for Spring.  

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7 hours ago, nzucker said:

Central Park may get a hard freeze on Sunday morning, 4/8. Would that be significantly later than the 2000s average last freeze?

 

Since 2000 the mean last freeze has been March 31, with values ranging from March 16th to April 16th. It would be somewhat later than average, but not too late.

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11 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It will be interesting to see if Newark can pull off the first recorded February maximum temperature greater than March and April. 1997 came the closest.

Newark monthly high temperatures

2018...Feb...80

2018...Mar...62

2018..Apr....63 so far

1997...Feb...74

1997..Mar...70

1997..Apr...74

New York City has done it once: 1874

Highest Monthly Temperatures:

February: 72°
March: 64°
April: 64°

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2 hours ago, JerseyWx said:

Good question.  The other thing I'm wondering is if NYC will make it on to the top 10 list of latest 70° readings for Spring.  

I don't have that list off hand but I do remember just three years ago NYC went until April 15th 2015, before they hit 70 degrees. That ended a streak that was 168 days straight of not hitting 70 degrees and started on October 30th 2014.

A few years before that they went 174 straight days without touching 70 from October 15th 2012 to April 8th 2013.

I'm sure Don, Uncle or Bluewave have the record you're asking about. I also wonder myself what the record consecutive streak is for not hitting 70 degrees. I would think the two recent streaks we had would be top 20. The average high temp in NYC goes below 70 on October 1st and doesn't reach an average high temperature of 70 again until May 11. That's 223 straight days that the average high is below 70 but of course in most years you will have days in there that exceed the norms. That's why the two recent streaks were fairly impressive against the norms.

Of course this year there is no such streak in place because of the freak day in February.

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37 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It will be interesting to see if Newark can pull off the first recorded February maximum temperature greater than March and April. 1997 came the closest.

Newark monthly high temperatures

2018...Feb...80

2018...Mar...62

2018..Apr....63 so far

1997...Feb...74

1997..Mar...70

1997..Apr...74

That would be just insane.  Notice '97 at least hit 70 in March.

It's pretty amazing that since March 1st, I've barely made it to 60 (and that was on the 1st).  It's actually snowing lightly in Mahwah currently and sticking to the grass.

11 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

I don't have that list off hand but I do remember just three years ago NYC went until April 15th 2015, before they hit 70 degrees. That ended a streak that was 168 days straight of not hitting 70 degrees and started on October 30th 2014.

Of course this year there is no such streak in place because of the freak day in February.

If it were not for that day back in February, there's a good chance NYC would have gone past that date.

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Just now, JerseyWx said:

That would be just insane.  It's pretty amazing that since March 1st, I've barely made it to 60.  It's actually snowing lightly in Mahwah currently and sticking to the grass.

If it were not for that day back in February, there's a good chance NYC would have gone past that date.

Snowing in butler too . Sticking to non paved surfaces 

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3 hours ago, bluewave said:

It will be a challenge  getting any big warm ups while the MJO is still in the cool phases for April.

0z Euro/EPS continued to back away from the big warm-up they had a couple days ago. 

If that trend continues, then getting even 70 readings will be a struggle.

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Nothing really showing up in the long range guidance yet that would counter the lasting influence from the recent strat warming event. Both EPS and GFS hinting at another -NAO drop in the longer range.

Frustrating that our change to a much warmer pattern seems to be falling apart. Hopefully we'll at least get a couple days with temps in the 60s late next week. Then a step back the following week? Frustrating.

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Not sure where to pose this question, what do people consider to be the beginning of spring, from a weather perspective? This winter feels like a particularly long winter, but I was curious how it stacked up compared to NYC winters past. It still feels like "winter" right now, and will for a few more days at least. 

Something like 5 consecutive 50 degree days with no more consecutive days under 30? Does it need to be multiple days. There's no single answer, but I was trying to do a "when did the winter end" by year, but having trouble coming up with a specific definition. 

 

 

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4 minutes ago, batmansascientist said:

Not sure where to pose this question, what do people consider to be the beginning of spring, from a weather perspective? This winter feels like a particularly long winter, but I was curious how it stacked up compared to NYC winters past. It still feels like "winter" right now, and will for a few more days at least. 

Something like 5 consecutive 50 degree days with no more consecutive days under 30? Does it need to be multiple days. There's no single answer, but I was trying to do a "when did the winter end" by year, but having trouble coming up with a specific definition. 

 

 

It obviously depends on the year. In 2012, we had 70s and 80s in mid-March. In 2010, trees were leafed out by the second week of April. Whereas in 2014, we received 1" of snow on 4/15; this year, we had 6" on April 2nd. So there is obviously a ton of variation.

Using the date of the last frost may be a good standard, however. For much of the NYC region, that corresponds to 4/10-4/20. This seems to coincide with the arrival of SUSTAINED warmth. That is, it's rare to see 2+ days in a row with sub 50F highs after mid-April. 

You can also use the date that average highs hit a certain mark. NYC average highs hit 50F ~3/20 and 60F ~4/10. 

There are many ways to define the arrival of spring, and there is high variability associated with the changes in seasons. But average last frost and average highs are an objective means of conveying a subjective concept of "spring."

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