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April 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208

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11 minutes ago, NewYorkweatherfan said:

Nam looks way north of other guidance

27F063DC-3FE5-4B9C-B550-2AD88F6E9F89.png

Yup this is definitely coming north on the globals at 0z. No way southern VA gets 6"+ in mid April. I like where our subforum stands for this one. If I had to make a preliminary call I'd say 2-4" for the area with high elevations pulling 4-8" Obviously those numbers will change but I think it's a good starting point. I like this threat. 

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12 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

This one my hunch is won't be for the coast.  Its inland or nobody.  I think either its too flat and the rates are not there and mostly the coast sees precip but its not enough to get it done or it goes very amped and is an inland event.

Snowgoose, which storm are you referring to, Friday/sat or sunday/Monday?

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13 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

This one my hunch is won't be for the coast.  Its inland or nobody.  I think either its too flat and the rates are not there and mostly the coast sees precip but its not enough to get it done or it goes very amped and is an inland event.

I like the follow-up threat, which should be the final frozen event of the season, more than the weekend storm in terms of significant potential for the coast. The 4/11 threat, despite being late on the calendar, has a Miller A look with a trough going negative in the MS Valley and sending a low off the OBX/Capes. Has a nice arctic high to the north with good confluence due to the -EPO block.

I do think the weekend event is still possible. If it tracks well south of us, we could see 2-4" on the northern periphery, with decent ratios due to low-level cold. Similar to the 4/2 event and how Sullivan County saw 4" despite only around 0.25" LE.

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26 minutes ago, nzucker said:

I like the follow-up threat, which should be the final frozen event of the season, more than the weekend storm in terms of significant potential for the coast. The 4/11 threat, despite being late on the calendar, has a Miller A look with a trough going negative in the MS Valley and sending a low off the OBX/Capes. Has a nice arctic high to the north with good confluence due to the -EPO block.

I do think the weekend event is still possible. If it tracks well south of us, we could see 2-4" on the northern periphery, with decent ratios due to low-level cold. Similar to the 4/2 event and how Sullivan County saw 4" despite only around 0.25" LE.

I also like that 2nd event better

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1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I also like that 2nd event better

I find it extremely hard to believe that suppression would be a problem this late in the season.  Getting three moderate 3-6 inch snowfalls in April would be amazing, what do you think are the chances for that?  The event on the 10th could be like the April 1996 event, except hopefully more precip on the western side this time.

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18 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

 Someone correct me if I'm wrong because I may be, but I thought the April 9-10, 1996 at KNYC was recorded as 0.7.

Actually there was at least a couple of inches at various times in Manhattan during that storm that were subsequently washed away, when the precip would go from heavy rain to heavy snow back and forth during most of the event. There was most likely a max depth of 2-3 inches at some point in Central Park that was never recorded, what a shock.

Events like the April 9-10 and of course the January 1996 blizzard, recorded as a ridiculous 20.2 inches in Central Park when anyone paying attention at that time recorded anywhere from 24-26 inches in Central Park, some even say 28, is why KNYC did not get in the 80-85 range which would have been a better representation of that winter rather than the official 75.6 record.

I meticulously measured snowfall that winter, for some reason I thought it would be a big snowfall winter for us, and I came up with 83 " on the winter here in SW Nassau.  The April 10 1996 event was all snow here, dont know why the city itself saw any rain- I'm only a few miles from the Queens line on the south shore.  The JFK number of 69 inches was also ridiculously low.

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Euro is a bit warm because it gives us crappy rates snowgoose but believe me we are close to a huge storm here and I disagree here with what you were saying inland or nothing this has big potential... hugeee

Northern NJ gets brushed, 2-4 for manhattan and Bronx 4-6 for queens n Brooklyn islip 8-10 and higher totals in southern New Jersey. This is trending north and it’ll stop right at the New York City area. In my opinion this will be another NYC jackpot

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19 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

 Someone correct me if I'm wrong because I may be, but I thought the April 9-10, 1996 at KNYC was recorded as 0.7.

Actually there was at least a couple of inches at various times in Manhattan during that storm that were subsequently washed away, when the precip would go from heavy rain to heavy snow back and forth during most of the event. There was most likely a max depth of 2-3 inches at some point in Central Park that was never recorded, what a shock.

Events like the April 9-10 and of course the January 1996 blizzard, recorded as a ridiculous 20.2 inches in Central Park when anyone paying attention at that time recorded anywhere from 24-26 inches in Central Park, some even say 28, is why KNYC did not get in the 80-85 range which would have been a better representation of that winter rather than the official 75.6 record.

Wow, that 4/19-20/1983 storm was over 4" in EWR?  Why was nothing recorded at NYC?  Even JFK had like 2 inches with that one.

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4 minutes ago, doncat said:

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2018040400_105_477_215.thumb.png.535449e23750a6b359af85053cae0d59.png

Why do these maps always screw over the south shore of LI? It makes no sense that central coastal NJ would have 8 inches while the south shore of LI would only have 0.4 lol...wow and close to 20" down around Millville over to ACY.  This reminds me of that April 1910 event I think it was where Philly got 20" and NYC got 10"

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