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April 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208

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This seasons snowfall in NYC now stands at 40.9 inches with the additional 5.5 today.

The average seasonal snowfall since Jan 1991, which is the starting date for the new 30 year averages when they are calculated through December 2020, is now 31.0 inches even broken down by month as follows. The individual months equal 30.9 when added together because a couple of months round down.

Average Snowfall at KNYC since Jan 1991
Oct....0.1
Nov....0.3
Dec....5.2
Jan.....9.2
Feb...10.8
Mar.....4.9
Apr.....0.4

Total....31.0

NYC now needs 38.2 inches of snow between now and December 31, 2020 to guarantee the new 30 year average will be above 30 inches for the first time since the 1891-1920 average of 32.2
 
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39 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:
This seasons snowfall in NYC now stands at 40.9 inches with the additional 5.5 today.

The average seasonal snowfall since Jan 1991, which is the starting date for the new 30 year averages when they are calculated through December 2020, is now 31.0 inches even broken down by month as follows. The individual months equal 30.9 when added together because a couple of months round down.

Average Snowfall at KNYC since Jan 1991
Oct....0.1
Nov....0.3
Dec....5.2
Jan.....9.2
Feb...10.8
Mar.....4.9
Apr.....0.4

Total....31.0

NYC now needs 38.2 inches of snow between now and December 31, 2020 to guarantee the new 30 year average will be above 30 inches for the first time since the 1891-1920 average of 32.2
 

Today’s 5.5” is one of the better measurements this winter. I had 6” at 120th and broadway. The biggest misses were the 1/4 blizzard when I recorded 12” and the 3rd March storm where I recorded 2”. 

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The snowstorm today places all of our major reporting sites in the top 10 snowiest Aprils on record. 

NYC....5.5"....8th snowiest April on record....#1...13.5"...1875

JFK.....3.7"...4th....#1...8.2"...1982

LGA....5.5"...4th.....#1...8.2"...1982

EWR..5.0"...3rd......#1..13.8"..1982

ISP....4.6"...3rd......#1..16.0"..1982

BDR..6.0"...2nd place tie..#1...11.8"...1996

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1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

Since 2010 we have now had major snowfalls in every month from October to April (10-29-11 being major for so early in the season)

Just outside of NYC's 2.9 that October storm was major. You didn't have to go many miles N&W to get to 6-12 inch totals, and many areas in Orange County and NWNJ saw 12-18.

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the AO status and the weather in NYC...the biggest snowfalls came around the date when the ao was at a low point...

Dec. 1-11.....Neg.....-1.480 12/10..........7" of snow from the 9th-15th...4.4" 12/9...

Dec. 16-27...Pos....+2.584 12/19..........Milder 17-24 with no snow...

Dec. 28-1.....Neg.....-0.602 12/29..........Colder 25-31...light snow on the 25th and 30th...

Jan. 3-12......Neg.....-2.889 1/5..............snowstorm 1/4...9.8" 1/4

Jan. 13-17....Pos.....+1.881 1/15...........milder 9-12...colder 13-18 with light snow on the 17th...

Jan. 18-25....Neg......-1.496 1/21...........milder 19th-24th...no snow...

Jan. 26-30....Pos......+0.976 1/28...........cold to mild to cold...light snow on the 30th...

Jan. 31-3......Neg......-1.722 2/1.............seasonal with cold rains...

Feb. 4-16.....Pos......+1.882 2/13..........light snow 7th...mild 10-16...

Feb. 17-19...Neg......-0.631 2/18..........snowstorm 17th...4.4"

Feb. 20-23...Pos......+0.666 2/22..........78 degrees on the 21st...

Feb. 24-28...Neg......-3.573 2/28..........continued mild...

Mar. 1-19.....Neg.....-4.500 3/2.............Storm with wind and wet snow2nd...snowstorm on the 7th...3.2" snow on the 13th...snowstorm on the 21st of 8.4"...

Mar. 20-25...Pos.....+??????3/25...........23-28 chilly...

Mar. 30-2.....Neg.....-2?????4/2.............snowstorm 4/2 of 5.5"...

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3 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Just outside of NYC's 2.9 that October storm was major. You didn't have to go many miles N&W to get to 6-12 inch totals, and many areas in Orange County and NWNJ saw 12-18.

I had well over a foot of crazy heavy wet snow here, I want to say it was 15". After all the tree damage from Irene that was a disaster and brought down so much more. Schools were closed for days because it was sketchy for the buses to get out, we had no power for about a week (after having no power for 5 days after Irene) and the town banned trick or treating because branches were still hanging and streets were narrow from all the debris. I had a huge old maple on my roof for almost 3 weeks until we could get a tree guy to come cut it up and not ruin the roof that was just reshingled a month prior. 

The next year the snowstorm after Sandy wasn't quite as devastating but again, no power and schools were out and the town cancelled trick or treating. 

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47 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

I had well over a foot of crazy heavy wet snow here, I want to say it was 15". After all the tree damage from Irene that was a disaster and brought down so much more. Schools were closed for days because it was sketchy for the buses to get out, we had no power for about a week (after having no power for 5 days after Irene) and the town banned trick or treating because branches were still hanging and streets were narrow from all the debris. I had a huge old maple on my roof for almost 3 weeks until we could get a tree guy to come cut it up and not ruin the roof that was just reshingled a month prior. 

The next year the snowstorm after Sandy wasn't quite as devastating but again, no power and schools were out and the town cancelled trick or treating. 

2010, 2011, and 2012 were probably the most extreme 3 years in a row for tree damage around the region. Mar 2010 Noreaster...Sep 2010 NYC Macroburst and tornado...Aug 2011 Irene..Oct 2011 snowstorm...Oct 2012 Sandy. 

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3 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Just outside of NYC's 2.9 that October storm was major. You didn't have to go many miles N&W to get to 6-12 inch totals, and many areas in Orange County and NWNJ saw 12-18.

I was on a trip to the Berkshires that weekend, partially to see the Fall leaves. Not the best for leaves... the snow was great though.

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1 minute ago, bluewave said:

2010, 2011, and 2012 was probably the most extreme 3 years in a row for tree damage around the region. Mar 2010 Noreaster...Sep 2010 NYC Macroburst and tornado...Aug 2011 Irene..Oct 2011 snowstorm...Oct 2012 Sandy. 

There was another crazy wind storm in there too, I think it was in 2010. I drove home from work in the city and was dodging trees and branches all the way up the Sprain Brook and Taconic Parkways. That was one of the scariest rides I've ever taken. 

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6 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:
This seasons snowfall in NYC now stands at 40.9 inches with the additional 5.5 today.

The average seasonal snowfall since Jan 1991, which is the starting date for the new 30 year averages when they are calculated through December 2020, is now 31.0 inches even broken down by month as follows. The individual months equal 30.9 when added together because a couple of months round down.

Average Snowfall at KNYC since Jan 1991
Oct....0.1
Nov....0.3
Dec....5.2
Jan.....9.2
Feb...10.8
Mar.....4.9
Apr.....0.4

Total....31.0

NYC now needs 38.2 inches of snow between now and December 31, 2020 to guarantee the new 30 year average will be above 30 inches for the first time since the 1891-1920 average of 32.2
 

You can see the upward trendline well on BNL's snowfall chart, but the year to year volatility since the mid 90's has been wild as well.   There is probably a stinker in our future..

 

 

image001.png

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2 hours ago, Animal said:

took a peek at the 18 GFS.

parks a low off the DE coast hour 114-124

rain to snow coast or snow for the interior.

 

Icon has pretty much the same type of system we had today for this weekend. It’s kinda funny cause we had a rain storm than a dried out cold front and than the wave developed along the front and produced today, icon literally has an identical pattern for the rest of the week

i don’t think icon does well but it did perfect with this past snowstorm it didn’t budge what so ever the whole entire time

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2 hours ago, Snowshack said:

You can see the upward trendline well on BNL's snowfall chart, but the year to year volatility since the mid 90's has been wild as well.   There is probably a stinker in our future..

 

 

image001.png

Another 01-02 or 11-12 is probably coming soon.  It seems now the US has one of those winters every 10 years or so

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0z GFS showed snow threats for Fri 4/6 with a west-east moving wave, then a similar scenario Monday 4/9, then a final Miller A Nor'easter up the coast around 4/12. Could be one of the craziest starts to April for snow and cold.

Definitely look for a ridge after 4/15 though w the cold PAC and vortex slowly migrating back towards AK.

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16 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

For reference, below is a list of 4” or greater April snowfalls in New York City (1869-2018)

April 13-14, 1875: 10.0”
April 9, 1907: 5.0”
April 3-4, 1915: 10.0”
April 8-9, 1917: 6.5”
April 1, 1924: 8.5”
April 6-7, 1938: 6.4”
April 5, 1944: 6.5”
April 8, 1956: 4.2”
April 6, 1982: 9.6”
April 7, 2003: 4.0”
April 2, 2018: 4.8” (through 8 am) – 9th largest April snowfall on record

 

Don, that April 2003 total looks like an undermeasurement, what was the total from JFK?  We had reports of 6-8 inches here on the south shore.  The April 10, 1996 storm was also a 4-5 inch storm, and might have been one of our latest 4" snow storms.

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11 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Today’s 5.5” is one of the better measurements this winter. I had 6” at 120th and broadway. The biggest misses were the 1/4 blizzard when I recorded 12” and the 3rd March storm where I recorded 2”. 

What did you have at home? We were in heavier bands for awhile but the snow ended around 10 am here.

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11 hours ago, bluewave said:

The snowstorm today places all of our major reporting sites in the top 10 snowiest Aprils on record. 

NYC....5.5"....8th snowiest April on record....#1...13.5"...1875

JFK.....3.7"...4th....#1...8.2"...1982

LGA....5.5"...4th.....#1...8.2"...1982

EWR..5.0"...3rd......#1..13.8"..1982

ISP....4.6"...3rd......#1..16.0"..1982

BDR..6.0"...2nd place tie..#1...11.8"...1996

Wait, BDR had 11.8 in 1996?  I wonder how there was such a huge difference between there and NYC.  Even JFK had between 4-5 inches

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11 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Just outside of NYC's 2.9 that October storm was major. You didn't have to go many miles N&W to get to 6-12 inch totals, and many areas in Orange County and NWNJ saw 12-18.

The Bronx had 6 inches.  But regardless even 3 inches is major in October.

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34 minutes ago, nzucker said:

0z GFS showed snow threats for Fri 4/6 with a west-east moving wave, then a similar scenario Monday 4/9, then a final Miller A Nor'easter up the coast around 4/12. Could be one of the craziest starts to April for snow and cold.

Definitely look for a ridge after 4/15 though w the cold PAC and vortex slowly migrating back towards AK.

Thats crazy if we get a snowstorm on 4/12 but it's entirely possible in this kind of pattern lol

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The snow from yesterday's snowstorm is rapidly melting. By the end of tomorrow, it will likely be all but a memory. Nevertheless, the pattern remains one in which the potential for an additional measurable snowfall is higher than climatologically normal. This weekend poses one such threat, but there is a possibility that this system could track too far to the south to bring such snow to the region.

Select seasonal amounts through April 5 are:

Bridgeport: 45.9”, 19.1” above normal
Islip: 65.9”, 41.6” above normal
New York City: 40.9”, 15.6” above normal
Newark: 39.4”, 11.7” above normal

Before colder air returns later this week, a more springlike air mass will move into the region ahead of a strong cold front. Temperatures will rise into the 40s today and then spike into the 60s tomorrow. Parts of central New Jersey could approach or reach 70° tomorrow. Today will likely see periods of rain. Tomorrow could see a thunderstorm as the cold front pushes eastward.

Finally, in the extended range, the EPS is signaling a possible break in the generally colder than normal pattern as mid-month approaches.

New York City’s Average Temperature Through:

4/2 44.8° (3.2° below normal)
4/5 43.2°-46.8° (4/2 estimate: 45.2°-48.8°)
4/10 42.7°-47.8° (4/2 estimate: 44.0°-48.8°)

Per aggressive sensitivity analysis, the estimated probability of an below normal monthly anomaly: 53% (4/2 estimate: 52%)

New York City April Snowfall Climatology: 1869-2018: Updated for Yesterday’s Snowstorm

Days with measurable snowfall: 60
Days with 0.5" or more snowfall: 44
Days with 1" or more snowfall: 30
Days with 2" or more snowfall: 21
Days with 3" or more snowfall: 14
Days with 4" or more snowfall: 10
Days with 5" or more snowfall: 8
Days with 6" or more snowfall: 6
Days with 7" or more snowfall: 4
Days with 8" or more snowfall: 4
Days with 9" or more snowfall: 2
Days with 10" or more snowfall: 1

Years with 1 or more days with measurable snowfall: 43
Years with 2 or more days with measurable snowfall: 13
Years with 3 or more days with measurable snowfall: 3
Years with 4 or more days with measurable snowfall: 1

Most days with measurable snowfall: 4, 1875

Highest daily snowfall: 10.0", April 3, 1915
Biggest April snowstorm: 10.2", April 3-4, 1915

Distribution of Days with Measurable Snowfall:
April 1-10: 29 (48%)
April 11-20: 28 (47%)
April 21-30: 3 (5%)

Latest measurable snowfall: April 29, 1874 (0.5")

Most recent April measurable snowfall: April 2, 2018 (5.5")

Monthly Snowfall Totals for April:
1.0” or more: 22 months
2.0” or more: 17 months
3.0” or more: 12 months
4.0” or more: 11 months
5.0” or more: 9 months
6.0” or more: 5 months
7.0” or more: 4 months
8.0” or more: 4 months
9.0” or more: 3 months
10.0” or more: 2 months
11.0” or more: 1 month
12.0” or more: 1 month

Snowiest April: 13.5”, 1875

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6 hours ago, Paragon said:

Don, that April 2003 total looks like an undermeasurement, what was the total from JFK?  We had reports of 6-8 inches here on the south shore.  The April 10, 1996 storm was also a 4-5 inch storm, and might have been one of our latest 4" snow storms.

The amounts for the April 1996 and April 2003 snowstorms were:

April 9-10, 1996:
JFK: 4.0"
LGA: 0.2"
NYC: 0.7"

April 7, 2003:
JFK: 5.4"
LGA: 5.6"
NYC: 4.0"

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1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

The amounts for the April 1996 and April 2003 snowstorms were:

April 9-10, 1996:
JFK: 4.0"
LGA: 0.2"
NYC: Trace

April 7, 2003:
JFK: 5.4"
LGA: 5.6"
NYC: 4.0"

 Someone correct me if I'm wrong because I may be, but I thought the April 9-10, 1996 at KNYC was recorded as 0.7.

Actually there was at least a couple of inches at various times in Manhattan during that storm that were subsequently washed away, when the precip would go from heavy rain to heavy snow back and forth during most of the event. There was most likely a max depth of 2-3 inches at some point in Central Park that was never recorded, what a shock.

Events like the April 9-10 and of course the January 1996 blizzard, recorded as a ridiculous 20.2 inches in Central Park when anyone paying attention at that time recorded anywhere from 24-26 inches in Central Park, some even say 28, is why KNYC did not get in the 80-85 range which would have been a better representation of that winter rather than the official 75.6 record.

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21 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

 Someone correct me if I'm wrong because I may be, but I thought the April 9-10, 1996 at KNYC was recorded as 0.7.

Actually there was at least a couple of inches at various times in Manhattan during that storm that were subsequently washed away, when the precip would go from heavy rain to heavy snow back and forth during most of the event. There was most likely a max depth of 2-3 inches at some point in Central Park that was never recorded, what a shock.

Day Snow Depth Snow Fall Min Temperature Max Temperature
4/9/1996 M 0.31 33.1 39.9
4/10/1996 M 0.39 33.1 46
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49 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

 Someone correct me if I'm wrong because I may be, but I thought the April 9-10, 1996 at KNYC was recorded as 0.7.

Actually there was at least a couple of inches at various times in Manhattan during that storm that were subsequently washed away, when the precip would go from heavy rain to heavy snow back and forth during most of the event. There was most likely a max depth of 2-3 inches at some point in Central Park that was never recorded, what a shock.

Events like the April 9-10 and of course the January 1996 blizzard, recorded as a ridiculous 20.2 inches in Central Park when anyone paying attention at that time recorded anywhere from 24-26 inches in Central Park, some even say 28, is why KNYC did not get in the 80-85 range which would have been a better representation of that winter rather than the official 75.6 record.

You are correct. 4/9-10 had 0.7" in Central Park. The error was mine, as I accidentally looked at 4/7-8 when posting the numbers.

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