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Spring 2018

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I'm at the point i need sun. All this dampness, my arthritis is killing me. And my yard is so saturated when the dog runs he just rips the grass up. Its fricking pouring in Harrisburg 

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This is June-level heavy rain here right now. Pretty cool 24 hours after heavy snow we had it all melt and now have heavy rain.

Weather's so fascinating. We're flying to Texas Friday and back Tuesday ... while you guys watch for snow here I'm watching for severe there. Things look interesting down there Friday and Saturday for storms. 

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3 hours ago, maytownpawx said:

He has become the first person I've ever put on ignore on any online forum. 

I think the 2nd wave early next week is the one to focus on. Seems like there's an opportunity for 2 pieces of energy to phase on the east coast. Tricky, highly intricate setup, but man if everything comes together we could be looking at something far more than a nuisance. 

I agree Mike, wave two will have the best dynamics.  The one thing I don't like about it will be a stale cold airmass. Hopefully everything lines up perfectly and we score with both.

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4 minutes ago, daxx said:

I agree Mike, wave two will have the best dynamics.  The one thing I don't like about it will be a stale cold airmass. Hopefully everything lines up perfectly and we score with both.

Exactly. The unseasonably cold air mass will be eroding...shoot it will be day 4 before the arrival of the storm. That works great in midwinter but not so much in April. As you said we're really going to need things to align perfectly where as on Saturday we might just need moisture to make it this far north. (along with rates obviously) 

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10 hours ago, daxx said:

Let me try to answer your question honestly.  I absolutely get giddy tracking snow when I see a model showing it. Is it weird, well maybe but who gives a sh!t. I would like to ask you a question.  Do you get giddy posting stupid comments?

It was a valid question. I was only asking it because a lot of you guys are acting like this has never happened before, while (at least in my experience) snow always seems to be modeled during the first part of April. On a personal level however, I now have another question....for you specifically. Do you talk like that in the "real world" to people's faces, or do you reserve your smugness for the internet where it's "safe" (it isn't, by the way)? I have a feeling I already know the answer to that one, but I just wanted to hear it from you.

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I enjoy this forum because for the most part there is a level of civility, unlike the MA/NY/PHILI forums.  Some long time posters know each other well enough that they can laughingly take little pokes at each other and can take the ribbing.  Some of us come here because we are snow lovers.  We always want to be in the jackpot, always want to believe things will come together for our area, love to break record highs/lows/amounts.  We look at snow and the possibility of snow with the enthusiasm of a child hoping for a day off of school.  Some of us are proudly weenies.

Today, maybe because we are facing the reality of the end of our snow season, the civility is missing. Can't we all play nicely?

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6 minutes ago, 717WeatherLover said:

I enjoy this forum because for the most part there is a level of civility, unlike the MA/NY/PHILI forums.  Some long time posters know each other well enough that they can laughingly take little pokes at each other and can take the ribbing.  Some of us come here because we are snow lovers.  We always want to be in the jackpot, always want to believe things will come together for our area, love to break record highs/lows/amounts.  We look at snow and the possibility of snow with the enthusiasm of a child hoping for a day off of school.  Some of us are proudly weenies.

Today, maybe because we are facing the reality of the end of our snow season, the civility is missing. Can't we all play nicely?

I don't know what all has been said because i have the perpetrator on ignore, but i so agree with you. Appreciate your thoughts! 

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1 minute ago, maytownpawx said:

I don't know what all has been said because i have the perpetrator on ignore, but i so agree with you. Appreciate your thoughts! 

I'm the "perpetrator" because I asked whether or not people get this exited every year when the GFS shows snow during the first part of April? That's some geeky mom's basement D&D logic right there. Incidentally now that I'm in the process of Doxing Daxx (that sorta rhymes, doesn't it?), it appears that's exactly what I was dealing with. I'll get back to my fun little project here and let you guys cry and commiserate about how much of a meanie I am and how much my screen name offends you, lol!

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2 hours ago, sauss06 said:

I'm at the point i need sun. All this dampness, my arthritis is killing me. And my yard is so saturated when the dog runs he just rips the grass up. Its fricking pouring in Harrisburg 

That's sacrilege. Warmista! LOL!

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2 minutes ago, snowsux said:

I'm the "perpetrator" because I asked whether or not people get this exited every year when the GFS shows snow during the first part of April? That's some geeky mom's basement D&D logic right there. Incidentally now that I'm in the process of Doxing Daxx (that sorta rhymes, doesn't it?), it appears that's exactly what I was dealing with. I'll get back to my fun little project here and let you guys cry and commiserate about how much of a meanie I am and how much my screen name offends you, lol!

Please leave. This is a weather forum for all enthusiasts if you want to participant fine but not this way. Go back to your project and ignore us. 

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8 minutes ago, paweather said:

Please leave. This is a weather forum for all enthusiasts if you want to participant fine but not this way. Go back to your project and ignore us. 

This isn't a "weather forum for all enthusiasts". This is a snow lover's forum.

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3 minutes ago, paweather said:

I still believe system 1 is the key if we can get that to come further north get the cold front out of the way earlier we will have a decent chance. 

What ever you are doing to will this thing north keep it up. 12z gfs is looking much better for the southern half of the state so far.

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1 minute ago, daxx said:

What ever you are doing to will this thing north keep it up. 12z gfs is looking much better for the southern half of the state so far.

Yep it is, GFS has the right idea just didn't get there totally yet but it is moving in the right direction. 

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Just now, paweather said:

Yep it is, GFS has the right idea just didn't get there totally yet but it is moving in the right direction. 

It gets the half inch qpf into the extreme southern border counties. Plenty cold for snow.

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Here's Pivotal's maps... first 10:1, then Kuchera.  I'd focus more on Kuchera numbers as closer to what to expect, unless rates (banding) from either or both become intense, which would pull numbers up towards 10:1's higher amounts:

sn10_acc.us_ne.pngsnku_acc.us_ne.png

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2 hours ago, 717WeatherLover said:

I enjoy this forum because for the most part there is a level of civility, unlike the MA/NY/PHILI forums.  Some long time posters know each other well enough that they can laughingly take little pokes at each other and can take the ribbing.  Some of us come here because we are snow lovers.  We always want to be in the jackpot, always want to believe things will come together for our area, love to break record highs/lows/amounts.  We look at snow and the possibility of snow with the enthusiasm of a child hoping for a day off of school.  Some of us are proudly weenies.

Today, maybe because we are facing the reality of the end of our snow season, the civility is missing. Can't we all play nicely?

This is a good post.

What I bolded in the quote is pretty much spot on. We all know each other on some level and each others "quirks" for lack of a better term. Everyone here knows I'm the biggest Warmanista there is, yet they all accept me for who I am, and why I'm a warmanista (which is because I'm a tractor trailer driver). They also know that. in season, and if I'm off work and sitting in my house, I will follow and root on a good snowstorm. The only civility that's missing is from the "snowsux" guy trolling.

That being said, I was hoping for a west coast trip this week, but instead I'm leaving out tomorrow for a run to Atlanta and then to Greenville, SC for a backhaul to Mountain Top, PA.

Looking at the latest GFS run, my Saturday may be a white one as I'll probably be coming up I-81 out of Virginia that day.

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