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2 minutes ago, paweather said:

I guess I could have clarified better, sorry the redo was with more on rates and how quick it came and left. My bad. The setup here is different but the overall way it acts is similar in timing and rates can it just slow down. 

No worries...not picking on you.  Just exchanging thoughts.  It's all good. :)

 

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29 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

WOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!  and this is Kuchera!!

NAM 2m temps are in the mid-upper 20s while this is ongoing. Kuchera takes the warmest temp in the 500mb-surface part of the column and applies it to an equation to spit out the ratio.. so in this case the warmest temps would be at the surface and those kinds of temperatures with a spring storm is impressive. Even more impressive is the NAM's 850 temperatures.. at -6 to -10ºC in the region of C-PA where it's snowing.. in APRIL. That's also why the precip shield might have tightened up in this run.. this isn't no marginal sloppy wet snow look that's for sure. For instance the NAM has Harrisburg at 28-29ºF during the best precip (that's during the day mind you). Applying Kuchera to roughly -2ºC or 271K gives a ratio of 12:1. 

We've also seen in the last two events ratios that are greater than 10:1 even with having marginal at or near freezing surface temperatures. One has to remember the lifting processes that initiate snow growth go on higher up in the atmosphere, which is a bit of a drawback of the Kuchera. That method doesn't apply that stuff, which is why I don't like using it in marginal temp situations (with that said this does not looks like a marginal temp situation haha). If the rates are good and accumulations are established on the ground, you can get fluff bombed by the good flakes that pile up quickly even with marginal temps. 

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1 minute ago, MAG5035 said:

NAM 2m temps are in the mid-upper 20s while this is ongoing. Kuchera takes the warmest temp in the 500mb-surface part of the column and applies it to an equation to spit out the ratio.. so in this case the warmest temps would be at the surface and those kinds of temperatures with a spring storm is impressive. Even more impressive is the NAM's 850 temperatures.. at -6 to -10ºC in the region of C-PA where it's snowing.. in APRIL. That's also why the precip shield might have tightened up in this run.. this isn't no marginal sloppy wet snow look that's for sure. For instance the NAM has Harrisburg at 28-29ºF during the best precip (that's during the day mind you). Applying Kuchera to roughly -2ºC or 271K gives a ratio of 12:1. 

We've also seen in the last two events ratios that are greater than 10:1 even with having marginal at or near freezing temperatures. One has to remember the lifting processes that initiate snow growth go on higher up in the atmosphere, which is a bit of a drawback of the Kuchera. That method doesn't apply that stuff, which is why I don't like using it in marginal temp situations (with that said this does not looks like a marginal temp situation haha). If the rates are good and accumulations are established on the ground, you can get fluff bombed by the good flakes that pile up quickly even with marginal temps. 

No doubt rates matter right now. Thanks Mag. What a heck of a season you have had Spring wise. 

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3 minutes ago, canderson said:

GFS has been muuuuuch better this season than the Euro tho. And the NAM kinda caved to the 18z GFS. 

The 0z GFS is a pretty substantial shift south it appears. Richmond gets snow, it’s that south lol. 

What season winter or spring? Nam/EURO has been much much better for us in the spring this is a joke. If you follow like I do, there is no way this doesn't come north. The NAM was a huge hit. 

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Just now, paweather said:

I can't even access it right now. but regardless give me the NAM/Euro on my side have back in the day the were 100%. CMC I should have gotten 50 plus" of digit snow. LOL.

Im not saying it is a great model, I was just saying it shifted South as well. Believe me I hope your right.

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For those of us with short term memory issues...here is how well the GFS did with our snowstorm 2 days ago.

Please see this map below from 12z 4/1, Less than 24 hours before the event, it had the jackpot along the PA- MD line, & fringed areas near I-80. We all know how that turned out, with next to nothing near the MD border, to 5-6 inches near I-80 when all was said & done.

The NAM & Euro will lead the way again with our Saturday storm.

ECDA2AE5-7B1B-407B-9F91-BA457AA0D330.png

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2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

For those of us with short term memory issues...here is how well the GFS did with our snowstorm 2 days ago.

Please see this map below from 12z 4/1, Less than 24 hours before the event, it had the jackpot along the PA- MD line, & fringed areas near I-80. We all know how that turned out, with next to nothing near the MD border, to 5-6 inches near I-80 when all was said & done.

The NAM & Euro will lead the way again with our Saturday storm.

gte

Thanks Blizz. Please everyone lets get over the GFS and CMC fantasy and focus on this.  

 

 

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