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March 24/25 Overrunning Disturbance


wncsnow

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9 minutes ago, NCsandhills said:

Back home Six Forks at Millbrook. Some seriously huge wet flakes coming down at a good rate. I know with the early March system folks were saying rates would drag down cold air and heavier bands would be snowier than lighter bands, I'm new at this. Why aren't we seeing this here? i know there are more/different factors at play, curious as to what they are tho. :)

But it sounds like you are in fact getting snow with heavier precip...maybe you can help us understand your question more

Raleigh is right on the borderline with temperatures.  The layer from 800mb to the surface is near freezing (shown here in NW Raleigh).  The enhanced rising motion causing the heavier precip has a net cooling effect through the atmospheric column (this is the opposite of sinking motion which compresses and warms the column).

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15 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

You have had the worst luck this year ever since about Christmas.

I will say tho last storm I’d take over anything. Crazy rates, thunder and lightning on multiple occasions and 8” of snow from that. About 2” in less than a 1/2 hour. It’s still dumping outside. Been a weird day here, whereas nothing just wants to stick. It’s moderate if not heavy snow right now. 

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16 minutes ago, Disco-lemonade said:

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-89.41,41.14,1968

note the inundation of gulf air, we would have a hard time fighting that off in February 

wow that's a great view of deformation (frontogenesis) there in SW VA (enhancing rising motion)

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9 minutes ago, nomanslandva said:

In the end, I bet we busted bad on the low side of liquid.  I bet we din't get  .4.  If we would have had the .75 to an inch models were giving us, I think we would have been fine.  Congrats to those getting the fatties!

Idk man I got some serious puddles in the yard and driveway under whatever snow is there. I’d say we must’ve gotten a solid 1/2” of qpf. Is it dumping up your way? 

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Just now, superjames1992 said:

It kind of looks to me like the precip axis oriented a little further south than forecasted, which is good for us on the southern end of the shield, but bad for folks in Roanoke, Blacksburg, etc.  Does this seem accurate?  The cutoff was always going to be tight with precip.

Yup!  And likely 6-7 more hours of it!  This is an amazing turn of events for a lot of us.  I was definitely not on board.  Kudos to Webber and others who nailed the thermal issues with this event!!

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1 minute ago, superjames1992 said:

It kind of looks to me like the precip axis oriented a little further south than forecasted, which is good for us on the southern end of the shield, but bad for folks in Roanoke, Blacksburg, etc.  Does this seem accurate?  The cutoff was always going to be tight with precip.

yes, :( accurate.   Ans we had snow from the start.  white rain for a while but never saw a raindrop.

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3 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

Idk man I got some serious puddles in the yard and driveway under whatever snow is there. I’d say we must’ve gotten a solid 1/2” of qpf. Is it dumping up your way? 

We’re in a lull at the moment.  Yeah, the timing during the day was definitely terrible for you guys.  It’s tough to get good accumulations during the day in late March with above freezing temperatures.  Sun angle + above freezing temperatures is a really bad combo for anything more than Snow TV.

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3 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

Idk man I got some serious puddles in the yard and driveway under whatever snow is there. I’d say we must’ve gotten a solid 1/2” of qpf. Is it dumping up your way? 

Cave Spring area.  If there is a hole in radar anywhere around Roanoke, it is over my house.  I had 3.5 the other day when you had 8.  Oh well, at least we are getting some water in the ground.

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1 minute ago, nomanslandva said:

Cave Spring area.  If there is a hole in radar anywhere around Roanoke, it is over my house.  I had 3.5 the other day when you had 8.  Oh well, at least we are getting some water in the ground.

Ah ok. Yea I got some of the heaviest snow right now of the day. It looks like it’s pouring outside in the light but driveway and backdoor patio are still very wet. 

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