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March 24/25 Overrunning Disturbance


wncsnow

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Maybe it was posted but Winter Storm warning (was a watch) for Boone and surrounding areas

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM SATURDAY TO NOON EDT
SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Initial snow will
  begin early Saturday morning, transitioning over to sleet,
  freezing rain or cold rain Saturday afternoon and evening. Total
  snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches, with localized amounts up
  to 8 inches, and ice accumulations of up to one tenth of an inch
  are expected.

* WHERE...In Virginia, Grayson County. In North Carolina, Ashe,
  Alleghany NC and Watauga Counties.

* WHEN...From 5 AM Saturday to noon EDT Sunday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on difficult travel conditions. Be
  prepared for significant reductions in visibility at times.

 

 

 

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Both the RGEM and GGEM are nuisance type SN events for NW NC and SW VA but with major icing down the spine of the Apps in W NC.  I am kicking around the idea of heading to SW VA in the early AM for a quick overnight chase, Copper Hill - Wytheville area with some elevation but I have pause given the guidance.  8-12" would be a successful chase but I don't have a warm and fuzzy.  

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2 hours ago, WeatherNC said:

Both the RGEM and GGEM are nuisance type SN events for NW NC and SW VA but with major icing down the spine of the Apps in W NC.  I am kicking around the idea of heading to SW VA in the early AM for a quick overnight chase, Copper Hill - Wytheville area with some elevation but I have pause given the guidance.  8-12" would be a successful chase but I don't have a warm and fuzzy.  

Copper Hill will be a good spot. That mountain ridge and the 221 corridor from southern Roanoke County into Floyd County should do very well with this. I will be in that area tomorrow and Sunday.

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Just now, wncsnow said:

Big decrease for most areas actually. More likely scenario and in line with other guidance

 

Cut totals in half lol

 

snku_acc.us_ma (8).png

I’m sorry but idk if it’s the Kuchera ratio thing or what but I do not buy places like Avery county getting only a dusting. Tropical tidbits maps for NAM seem more plausible and in line with the Euro. Also, ice threat is really increasing for eastern slopes and immediate foothills counties as this NAM run was a degree or two colder for these areas Sunday morning. 

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45 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

How do you get to the 36 hr HRRR map......I dont see anything past 18 hrs on Tropical Tidbits.....

HRRRX model at 00z, 06z, 12z and 18z on there usually has it out to 36 hours. It’s experimental though so take it FWIW. 

 

For those wondering about the NAM temp difference, it’s due to a slower onset of clouds and precip allowing for more warming. 

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2 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Can anyone explain to me why the NAM showed a 7 degree difference in temp with 0z compared to 18z for southern VA? 18z had Danville at 39 when precip started,  0z says 46??

Im not sure man but I can tell you the temps are dropping like a rock outside with clear skies and calm winds right now. I see Danville on wunderground is at 37. I am at 36. We both know a lot of times these systems move in quicker than progged. Earlier the moisture gets in here imo the better.

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