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March 24/25 Overrunning Disturbance


wncsnow

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35 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

This is going to be so close here in McDowell. Could be where Woodlawn and the Cove sees snow and south of 40 not much. Going to be that close. 

Yep. Running a race 25K in Montreat tomorrow that will take us to the top of greybeard. Hoping the roads are solid but the trails are white :)

Going to be close and very much elevation depended.   

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1 minute ago, strongwxnc said:

Yep. Running a race 25K in Montreat tomorrow that will take us to the top of greybeard. Hoping the roads are solid but the trails are white :)

Going to be close and very much elevation depended.   

Oh yeah Mark the Montreat area could do very well in this set up. Enjoy!

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Even with the Kuchera the diff between the GFS and NAM are absurd. One shows 6” in Boone and the other 0.1” I know NAM shows a lot of IP/ZR but with the amount of precip coming this way I’d think there would be more concern from NWS


.


Yeah Blacksburg is bugging me with the lack of ice concern. Gfs does horribly with warm noses hence the big difference. NAM is almost entirely zr for Boone.

Sent from my SM-G930R7 using Tapatalk

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4 minutes ago, sarcean said:

Kind of silly we all have all these varying solutions to something that starts early tomorrow. Its not like we are talking a week out or even several days out

I'd rather have it like this than the models showing a big storm here a few days out that usually doesn't verify. We usually do better around here when things keep changing and are unknown up until the storm unfolds. 

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ARW-2 is incredibly bullish for the system, as is the ARW. Here is the ARW-2 output at 10:1, I would cut these totals in half to one-third to get a more realistic idea based on it being a heavy wet snow, but still impressive with 1-1.5" of qpf falling.

wrf-arw2_asnow_seus_48.png

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13 minutes ago, snowlover91 said:

ARW-2 is incredibly bullish for the system, as is the ARW. Here is the ARW-2 output at 10:1, I would cut these totals in half to one-third to get a more realistic idea based on it being a heavy wet snow, but still impressive with 1-1.5" of qpf falling.

wrf-arw2_asnow_seus_48.png

I'd be fine with only 4 to 6 inches. 

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17 minutes ago, snowlover91 said:

ARW-2 is incredibly bullish for the system, as is the ARW. Here is the ARW-2 output at 10:1, I would cut these totals in half to one-third to get a more realistic idea based on it being a heavy wet snow, but still impressive with 1-1.5" of qpf falling.

wrf-arw2_asnow_seus_48.png

lol that hole is right over Rockingham UGH!!

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Interesting tidbit from NWS GSP:

Quote

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 130 PM: Developing low pressure in the lee of the Rockies will
begin to move through the Plains late this aftn and evening. A warm
front will activate ahead of it, initially over the mid-Mississippi
Valley. The axis of a midlevel ridge will shift overhead tonight as
the warm front edges its way eastward, setting up from eastern KY to
the NC Piedmont by Saturday morning. However, weak upglide will
develop over our mountains well before dawn, and that is when precip
chances are expected to quickly increase. Unfortunately it`s not
looking like the event will unfold in a straightforward manner from
that point. It looks likely that temperature profiles will feature
non-freezing values only in the sfc layer, but the arrival of the
warm front will gradually change that, introducing a warm nose.
While warm advection generally should continue through the day,
850mb plots from the NAM/GFS seem to reflect wet-bulb cooling for a
time after the onset of precip. Even the development of the warm
nose thus looks difficult to time. Furthermore, as CAD begins to
develop over the course of the day, sfc temps will remain cool
across the northern mtns and NW NC Piedmont, which will maintain the
possibility of wintry wx. This will be a tough p-type fcst for the
mountains and I-40 corridor.

Additional details to come after the aftn fcst pkg is finalized in
collaboration with neighboring offices.

 

Basically, they want to "phone a friend" for help on this forecast.  I don't blame them.  I would want to do so too.  There is so much varying guidance on where the heaviest axis of precipitation will be, and the difference of one or two degrees will create vastly different outcomes in sensible weather.  Tough call on this one...but when is it not?  :D

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ARW-2 is incredibly bullish for the system, as is the ARW. Here is the ARW-2 output at 10:1, I would cut these totals in half to one-third to get a more realistic idea based on it being a heavy wet snow, but still impressive with 1-1.5" of qpf falling.
wrf-arw2_asnow_seus_48.png&key=d45a534b7b1cae08327050696043e3ef822cc73e97d8fe7f673eb5234aa9184d
Yeah but then you see this and realize the models just dont know lol 
[mention=14076]SteveVa[/mention] and I both know that isn't happening with this event.
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