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March 24/25 Overrunning Disturbance


wncsnow

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4 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

NAM coming in hot for southside, Roanoke area. A little colder at the surface

Looks much better up this way. Solid 6-10 for me and def a good dumping out your way as well.

im just a tad worried, as the Nam seems to be the northern outlier 

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4 minutes ago, NC_WX10 said:

Could someone explain to me why there is such a difference in accumulations for the mountains on the pivotal weather and the TT maps? 

It's a p-type issue. Most of what is falling in the 12Z NAM for NW NC is ZR/IP, which the TT maps count as snow accumulation and the pivotal weather maps mostly don't. Kuchera maps don't count ZR/IP as snow.

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2 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Not sure how accurate this model is, but it shows a decent amount and still snowing after this frame... only goes out 48 hrs..

 

hrdps_asnow_neus_48.png

That's the higher res version of the RGEM, basically like the 3km nam is compared with the 12km version. It's pretty good and better than the RGEM from what I've seen this year.

At this range I would recommend people not look at the 10:1 ratio maps and use Kuchera then cut the totals in half to get a realistic expectation. Ratios will be low due to this being a wet snow, add in compaction, temps right at or above freezing and you don't have a recipe to get anything close to what the 10:1 maps are putting out. Ratios will be more like 3:1 to 6:1 for most.

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4 minutes ago, snowlover91 said:

That's the higher res version of the RGEM, basically like the 3km nam is compared with the 12km version. It's pretty good and better than the RGEM from what I've seen this year.

At this range I would recommend people not look at the 10:1 ratio maps and use Kuchera then cut the totals in half to get a realistic expectation. Ratios will be low due to this being a wet snow, add in compaction, temps right at or above freezing and you don't have a recipe to get anything close to what the 10:1 maps are putting out. Ratios will be more like 3:1 to 6:1 for most.

I wouldnt go as low as 3:1... thinking the ratios will be between 5:1-7:1

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4 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

GFS is gonna be a big hit for NWNC mountains again but is not good for southside VA or northern NC Piedmont 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=seus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2018032312&fh=54

 

I’m not so sure about that. Looks really good back this way in McDowell even. 

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4 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Kuchera ratio is much much better to use in these scenarios. As said earlier it wont be anything close to 10-1

This is going to be so close here in McDowell. Could be where Woodlawn and the Cove sees snow and south of 40 not much. Going to be that close. 

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Even with the Kuchera the diff between the GFS and NAM are absurd. One shows 6” in Boone and the other 0.1” I know NAM shows a lot of IP/ZR but with the amount of precip coming this way I’d think there would be more concern from NWS

 

 

.

I’m losing what hope I had last night for the foothills. Probably some slush and a lot of rain cold!!

 

 

.

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First time posting. I "stumbled on" to this site back in December. The people I work with think that I'm the "weather god". I've predicted every snow storm this year (usually several days or even weeks in advance). However, I never told them where I got my information. You guys are awesome, thanks for everything you do!! I'm a high school teacher, so snow is a BIG deal!!! I'm on the hook for Monday, I predicted NO SCHOOL on Monday. Everyone is doubting, and honestly, I'm starting to doubt my forecast too. My fingers are crossed.

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