Snow bomb obs March 21

[metagraphica]

Ended up with a little over 3" at home.  An  inch or so last night and a good 2 hour burst of giant snow flakes this morning did it.  Was still snowing lightly as I headed to work.  Only about 1" here in Norwichtown.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Bye bye u P.O.S

[Baroclinic Zone]

And let me preface that I'm not complaining about the outcome/results, it just seems like the majority of guidance failed right up into the event around these parts.  The caution flags were raised by a few and I did take note but when you start seeing the same output you begin to take credence into it.  For my own learning, I think having the low occluded S of us played a huge role.  And one which we have see before in recent history.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

This one should rank right up there with some of the all time busts.  What are your favorites?  Jan 2015 is mine, got 6" on a forecast of 24-36"

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Did you see the 00z run? 

Yea, Euro gave me 2" and that's what I got. No compromise whatsoever.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

And let me preface that I'm not complaining about the outcome/results, it just seems like the majority of guidance failed right up into the event around these parts.  The caution flags were raised by a few and I did take note but when you start seeing the same output you begin to take credence into it.  For my own learning, I think having the low occluded S of us played a huge role.  And one which we have see before in recent history.

Occlusion is a death knell for excessive amounts, but I thought that I'd do better than 2".

[Baroclinic Zone]

11 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah the maps are 10:1 all QPF.  Doesn't seem too bad.  

TAN's over .4" for the storm.  Should have 4-5" ifit were mid-winter when those 10:1 snow maps work better.

You're missing the point.  The 10:1 maps are not taken verbatim.  Areas in SE MA are barely seeing any accumulation, let alone 6, 8, 10"+ as some models were showing using whatever ratios you choose.

[weathafella]

We been fat for awhile 

[dryslot]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Occlusion is a death knell for excessive amounts, but I thought that I'd do better than 2".

That is the only way i was seeing snow from this, Once that qpf field expanded, But usually won't yield shiat for totals.

[weathafella]

Let’s put it this way-I saw no need for covered parking at work.  No school in Boston meant no traffic.  Brookline and metro west wisely didn’t cancel or delay.

[rgwp96]

Down here in nw jersey I got lucky and had 9.5 , places 15-20 miles north of me had 1 . It’s Been a great March with over 40 inches  my total is 65 for  the year for me (butler nj )

[Professional Lurker]

I'm pretty sure I saw 2 maybe 3 flakes total.

Sent from my SM-G920P using Tapatalk

[weathafella]

1 minute ago, rgwp96 said:

Down here in nw jersey I got lucky and had 9.5 , places 15-20 miles north of me had 1 . It’s Been a great March with over 40 inches  my total is 65 for  the year for me (butler nj )

That’s close to my seasonal but today is largely a dud.  Last week’s 16 inches didn’t hurt the totals.

[ORH_wxman]

10 minutes ago, weathafella said:

That’s close to my seasonal but today is largely a dud.  Last week’s 16 inches didn’t hurt the totals.

Been an amazing month regardless. The thing that gets me the most is that taking a place like ORH....they have had not one, but TWO sizeable negative busts this month, and yet they are threatening their snowiest March on record anyway despite this. That's how good the potential has been. Though it's fair to say that they did have a positive bust in the 3/13 storm with that sick band getting to them and causing almost 22 inches.

[HoarfrostHubb]

33 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Let’s put it this way-I saw no need for covered parking at work.  No school in Boston meant no traffic.  Brookline and metro west wisely didn’t cancel or delay.

Roads in the city in which I work in were actually pretty sloppy.  In my town and on the highway in between it was fine, but once inside Plastic City it was a tricky drive

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, jbenedet said:

Where are the obs in ME? That banding looks healthy and its backed all the way into Millinocket already...Augusta and Portland Look like moderate snow as well...

Moderate snow in Exeter NH; I'd estimate close to 2" right now.

Light snow in Augusta, began about 90 minutes ago, now enough to make the ground wet and almost whiten the bit of bare grass alongside the plowed walkways.  Might even get a flake or two at home - I'd thought last night that our 1" forecast might only verify if we lined up the flakes edge to edge.

Weird temp/wx regime this month.  13 of the first 15 days were AN and the period was +5.3.  It also had flakes on all but 3 days and 36.4" snowfall.  Since then temps have run about -9 and it's been totally dry, subject to what might happen today (T, at most) and it's not impossible that we finish the month w/o any additional measurable SN.  Still the #2 March of 20 here, and I never thought we'd approach the 55.5" of 2001.  Batting .500 on coastals for the month, and the hits both cleared the fences.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Lol... NWS BOX has a report of 3" for Leominster...

To my work peeps, I verified... ugh.  This storm sucked

[dendrite]

49 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

You're missing the point.  The 10:1 maps are not taken verbatim.  Areas in SE MA are barely seeing any accumulation, let alone 6, 8, 10"+ as some models were showing using whatever ratios you choose.

Ptype isn’t determined by the euro either. The only thing you can compare really is the 2m T and QPF. I guess the op does seem a little high with the liquid. 

[Cold Miser]

1 hour ago, metagraphica said:

Ended up with a little over 3" at home.  An  inch or so last night and a good 2 hour burst of giant snow flakes this morning did it.  Was still snowing lightly as I headed to work.  Only about 1" here in Norwichtown.

3 is where I ended up.  Nice last blast this a.m. All things considering we salvaged o.k. with this one.

[#NoPoles]

.61inches in the rain gauge

[dryslot]

No bust here, The Euro is going to be spot on, Just some flakes in the air, GFS, 3", Nam 8" until it finally backed off yesterday.......................

[wxeyeNH]

So how much snow actually feel in the greater Rt 128 area?  1-2"?   Did anything stick on the roads or just grassy and previously snow-covered areas?  Any need for salt/sand/plowing?  Seems like one of the more epic busts in recent times.  

[dendrite]

10 minutes ago, #NoPoles said:

.61inches in the rain gauge

How much after 00z?

[ma blizzard]

1.9" total and 81.8" for the season 

[dendrite]

Sun’s out...buns out

[#NoPoles]

5 minutes ago, dendrite said:

How much after 00z?

Around .3inches

[Hazey]

Ripping. T-snow being reported at YHZ. There goes my golfing on Friday. Phuk this winter

[snowman21]

My pet peeve is that snow forecasts always seem to go balls to the wall and leave little room to step down without looking ridiculous. I wonder how often we get more than forecast excluding localized things like a few towns getting stuck under a band. I think the way snow forecast ranges are presented needs some work as well. The 6-12 or 8-14s seem like a lazy attempt. If 6 inch ranges are OK why not 8?

[CT Rain]

12 minutes ago, snowman21 said:

My pet peeve is that snow forecasts always seem to go balls to the wall and leave little room to step down without looking ridiculous. I wonder how often we get more than forecast excluding localized things like a few towns getting stuck under a band. I think the way snow forecast ranges are presented needs some work as well. The 6-12 or 8-14s seem like a lazy attempt. If 6 inch ranges are OK why not 8?

I feel like the big ranges are a way to convey uncertainty (at least that's what I do). This is pretty much the only probabilistic forecast we put on TV. 

We were also about 50% of what the NWS was forecasting and we were still way too high.

[OceanStWx]

6 minutes ago, snowman21 said:

My pet peeve is that snow forecasts always seem to go balls to the wall and leave little room to step down without looking ridiculous. I wonder how often we get more than forecast excluding localized things like a few towns getting stuck under a band. I think the way snow forecast ranges are presented needs some work as well. The 6-12 or 8-14s seem like a lazy attempt. If 6 inch ranges are OK why not 8?

Speaking for what we deal with, our ranges are locked in mainly because of southern offices. We would prefer more details in the mid to high ranges of snowfall, but southern offices need a lot of detail at the low end. And HQ wants consistency from office to office. So we start 6 inch bins at 12". And we jump from 36-50" to 50-100". 

Snowfall forecasting in general though is tough. At the most basic level it is a temp, QPF, snow ratio forecast. Those variables combine to produce a snowfall. Aside from the many ways a temp or snow ratio can bust, QPF is often far too broad (you miss the maxes and the mins). More often than not, the high QPF is too expansive as well. So the highest snowfall amounts are usually not as widespread.