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March 20-21 Short Range Model Analysis


Bob Chill

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

No, the ealier snow maps were grossly overdone and was pointed out multiple times. 12z  Euro had 1-1.2" qpf  from 6z onward for most of the area. It cut back like 25%. 12z looked overdone between 18-0z with the comma/deform and it has come to earth there. 

It's a fine run for good snows but deck picks concern is legit. UHI areas need a good base down by dawn. 

I think we get a front thump for an hour or two, and then a 'lull" until the deform band sets up.  

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1 minute ago, Deck Pic said:

I think we get a front thump for an hour or two, and then a 'lull" until the deform band sets up.  

Kuchera has dc sitting on 3" by 8am. Not too shabby and very important. What's your temp now? I've been below freezing for hours. Not sure how the city is doing. 

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5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

No, the ealier snow maps were grossly overdone and was pointed out multiple times. 12z  Euro had 1-1.2" qpf  from 6z onward for most of the area. It cut back like 25%. 12z looked overdone between 18-0z with the comma/deform and it has come to earth there. 

It's a fine run for good snows but deck picks concern is legit. UHI areas need a good base down by dawn. 

Oh dear...sounds like we'll have to hope the ice/sleet base we have up my way can do the trick. Never a comfortable feeling when changes in timing and such (particularly those that could change the complexion of expected totals) start showing up in the short range...

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

Kuchera has dc sitting on 3" by 8am. Not too shabby and very important. What's your temp now? I've been below freezing for hours. Not sure how the city is doing. 

32/30.  I've been at 32 for several hours now.  Latest HRRR throws a lot of moisture over us and well west of us.  And we know that no models are yet capturing the secondary banding that will set up in the favored areas.  

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2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Oh dear...sounds like we'll have to hope the ice/sleet base we have up my way can do the trick. Never a comfortable feeling when changes in timing and such (particularly those that could change the complexion of expected totals) start showing up in the short range...

Expectations are subjective. I was thinking my high bar was 6-8 and that looks good on most guidance and definitely good on the euro. Euro thinking closer to 10" with Kuchera but I think that's high. 4-8" is a pretty safe bet in my yard. LWX 5-10 looks pretty good for now too. 

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5 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Oh dear...sounds like we'll have to hope the ice/sleet base we have up my way can do the trick. Never a comfortable feeling when changes in timing and such (particularly those that could change the complexion of expected totals) start showing up in the short range...

you're in a much better spot than all of DC metro.  

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5 minutes ago, Deck Pic said:

32/30.  I've been at 32 for several hours now.  Latest HRRR throws a lot of moisture over us and well west of us.  And we know that no models are yet capturing the secondary banding that will set up in the favored areas.  

Euro is a very broad brush .7-.9 through all of Nova and the corridor from 6z onward. Details on how that happens changes ground truth like you said. 

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Hi folks, first time posting- looking to join a good chat that goes 24/7/365 and I finally found one.

Watching new HRRR come in...it really seems to like a significant band of moderate to heavy snow setting up over BWI and moving eastward across the Bay, and has for the past several runs.  Perhaps this run isn't as great for the immediate DC metro area, but it's pretty good for everyone else.  

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11 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Expectations are subjective. I was thinking my high bar was 6-8 and that looks good on most guidance and definitely good on the euro. Euro thinking closer to 10" with Kuchera but I think that's high. 4-8" is a pretty safe bet in my yard. LWX 5-10 looks pretty good for now too. 

This whole time 8 inches was my high (although the 12z EURO kinda pushed that number to 10", lol) As long as 6-8" is on the table I'll take that...just hope it doesn't get cut back anymore

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26 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Expectations are subjective. I was thinking my high bar was 6-8 and that looks good on most guidance and definitely good on the euro. Euro thinking closer to 10" with Kuchera but I think that's high. 4-8" is a pretty safe bet in my yard. LWX 5-10 looks pretty good for now too. 

Really hoping I can get 3.6". Double digits on the year and the rest is gravy. 

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Just now, osfan24 said:

Why are people defending what the Euro did? If the Kuchera method, which is supposed to factor in ratios, can't identify sleet and freezing rain from snow, what good is it? It cut snow totals by 2/3 in one run.

Seems like the earlier NAM ferrier runs might be more accurate? I don’t know. This is definitely screaming massive bust 

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