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March 20-21 Short Range Model Analysis


Bob Chill

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It's already below freezing pretty much everywhere and accum snow will start well before sunrise so there will be a base before the sun comes up. Much of the precip during daylight hours is on the cold side of the low so it should be most well formed dendrites and not the gloppy missiles you see during waa precip.  There are some factors on our favor no matter how you slice it. 

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1 minute ago, Cobalt said:

Just hug the changing every hour HRRR :)

hrrr_asnow_neus_18.thumb.png.4e400b2bd9e5872077777dd387f7ceda.png

I'll take that and run with it. Even cut in half, 3 inches. My bar was one inch. I never really believed in all the inflated totals LWX was trotting out lol. I am pretty sure I'll see an inch of snow from this, maybe two.

I do however congratulate those who did cash in already. Despite the angst in here, I still think wxtrix will end up with at least a foot of snow. The north tier will get 12 to 18 too. NE MD, Harford, will get in on 15 to 20. Those are all favored locations.

I'll happily take my inch of snow and run with it, and be happy for all those who get a lot more.

We REALLY, REALLY need to give this storm a chance. Its not even 2 am yet!

Let's wait til 9am before giving up on this. 

All I am saying............is give it a chance.

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32 minutes ago, ATreglown said:

WxMan1, why hate on Richmond. We are MA too. We do not make the weather, it does and is what it is. The banding will set up and we will all know tomorrow where that shall be. Congrats to those in the MA that are so fortunate to be under such bands!! Enjoy like there is no tomorrow!!  :)

 

Oh no, no hate at all! I used to live there, 10+ years while working at AKQ. Love it down there. Got to experience many snow snubs during the time i was there. Seemed their fortunes changed when I moved away, lol! 

It's not hate. It's more like, "why couldn't RIC jackpot when I lived there?" :)

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5 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

This right here. I dont give two craps what a model is saying right now. Just LOOK AT THIS!

Doppler Radar National Mosaic

 

 

 

For those of us in central MD and further east, it's all about the Low getting tucked in, it seems...and it sounds like (and please correct me someone if I'm wrong), no matter what's going on jist to the southwest...a low further off the coast won't capture the moisture as much...so it would make little difference what we're seeing now because we just don't know, smh

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SPC upper panels showing warm tongue still supporting weak surface low in KY, have to think that these early models are losing the earlier plot without any real change in signal. Hoping that the Euro shows its superior skill this time and sets things back on track. Key problem to be resolved is how all that warmth and moisture west of the mountains is magically pulled away without influencing the shape of the coastal low, a more credible solution is the tucked one which these models have abandoned. Thinking that the Euro might slow down this progression and keep the low tucked while remnants of the current low are pulled around the 500 mb low and out towards ORF. 

Anyway, bet that the Euro has a better look than any of these other models and that it verifies better too. 

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4 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

SPC upper panels showing warm tongue still supporting weak surface low in KY, have to think that these early models are losing the earlier plot without any real change in signal. Hoping that the Euro shows its superior skill this time and sets things back on track. Key problem to be resolved is how all that warmth and moisture west of the mountains is magically pulled away without influencing the shape of the coastal low, a more credible solution is the tucked one which these models have abandoned. Thinking that the Euro might slow down this progression and keep the low tucked while remnants of the current low are pulled around the 500 mb low and out towards ORF. 

Anyway, bet that the Euro has a better look than any of these other models and that it verifies better too. 

Hope you're right!!

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3 hours ago, PivotPoint said:

0z nam through 10 am tomorrow:

43F8268D-0682-4C1F-848A-289D1EA317DA.thumb.png.bc99f63cc7ca528dd1c8975151bf1a02.png

18z nam run same time frame:

4420773A-E36E-4EBC-A7E0-D04B79792425.thumb.png.85a994e93ff5b7cf1c99ee2d2b1bc3ca.png

 

Not trolling just saying. Major reduction on 0z nam. Plain and simple. Hopefully wrong 

NAMs have been so inconsistent, who cares?  I have 2" already and it is snowing like crazy out there right now!! It is getting close to the 8:00 am forecast amounts at 1:22 am!!  Don't think the NAMs are handling it well here in Augusta Co at least.

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9 minutes ago, Abbyme24 said:

Is that Kuchera? Still like a 75% reduction from the last run.

No, the ealier snow maps were grossly overdone and was pointed out multiple times. 12z  Euro had 1-1.2" qpf  from 6z onward for most of the area. It cut back like 25%. 12z looked overdone between 18-0z with the comma/deform and it has come to earth there. 

It's a fine run for good snows but deck picks concern is legit. UHI areas need a good base down by dawn. 

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