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March 20-21 Short Range Model Analysis


Bob Chill

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Just now, MD Snow said:

Simple. It keeps shifting the banding every run. Death band at 12z was over the corridor. Death band at 18z was on the eastern shore. No model has really consistently shown where it's going to set up. It'll be fine. 

Yeah I’d agree here. I doubt any model really knows where the banding will set up. After my years here I find it hard to believe there won’t be a Moco Deathband tomorrow.

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Banding according to GFS is gonna be closer to the rain/snow line with temps at or below freezing... maybe we hit higher ratios. But i don't think really ANY model knows where the banding sets up, at this point.

I don't expect much more than 15:1 ratios at the highest, if another deathband is also present in the cooler temps closer to N MD... if temps remain in the 20s.

In NJ/DE,S/SE PA, ratios are probably gonna be around 12:1 if temperatures are colder than 32 at their highest. Somewhere in these areas, though, someone's gonna be colder than forecast and get really high ratios. It always is a possibility. Don't expect 10:1 ratios. Maybe 8:1 or 9:1. Again, only in the deathbands and what not.

Pretty much almost all models sum it up: Lead low over Kentucky or that area will break free. Then the main developing LP, which is around all those thunderstorms in N FL, comes in, and the Mid-Atlantic sub-forum gets hammered during the main event tomorrow if the right set up comes to fruition. And we get our main event. Right now, the first kicker is moving in and we still have our pretty strong suppression stream over N NE. 

That's all i know right now.

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1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

This sounds like something we always do. Worrying about where models show the banding and it almost always shows up NW of where we think (congrats Mappy/PSU).

I'm not terribly concerned about the models. Just going to enjoy the show from here. 

Judging the radar we have a little while for this intermission.  Funny how when it’s not snowing it’s easy to let your mind wander into disastertown

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It looks like there’s a bit more focus on the coastal now and maybe there’s some dynamics lost as the 500 low shifts east?  That’s the only thing I can think of. I like that the euro is favorable. After seeing mostly ice today I’m good with a 4” storm tbh.  My bar is 2-10”.  I could envision anywhere with that range falling here. MN pointed out yesterday that the moisture fetch for wave 2 isn’t the greatest so if that holds true then it could be that we need that coastal to hug the coast, and not drift too far offshore.

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9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

You guys need to back it down. Lol. Havent we all said like 100 times that bands with a closed upper level low can never be modeled accurately? How many storms have we seen like this where the idea was correct but the placement was off? Like every single one maybe?

I can guess where one band is gonna be... right over "fringe land." You know it. Doesn't matter where the low is.

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15 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

You guys need to back it down. Lol. Havent we all said like 100 times that bands with a closed upper level low can never be modeled accurately? How many storms have we seen like this where the idea was correct but the placement was off? Like every single one maybe?

We are entering into the normal weenie panic phase.  This is where I check out for a bit.

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3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

We are entering into the normal weenie panic phase.  This is where I check out for a bit.

I gotta try and get to sleep early and not keep watching radar blossom to the SW. Qpf between now and 2am is like .05-.2 tops through the region. But the rebirth will be clearly in sight by 10pm or so... I don't drink anymore so I can't go there.... got any dank ideas?

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4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I gotta try and get to sleep early and not keep watching radar blossom to the SW. Qpf between now and 2am is like .05-.2 tops through the region. But the rebirth will be clearly in sight by 10pm or so... I don't drink anymore so I can't go there.... got any dank ideas?

Heavy heavy coffeve?

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I'm watching my ground truth vs the Euro output. Right now I've got about 1". Euro says I should have 2-3" by 6:00. That's probably not happening.
 
My next look will be at midnight, where it says I should have 5. If I miss both of those marks by midnight tonight, then yeah, I'm not really going to trust the Euro snow maps, even Kuchera, for this event.
Wow I've got a dusting. White on grass very little on driveway
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