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March 20-21 Short Range Model Analysis


Bob Chill

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1 minute ago, gymengineer said:

The RGEM turns the cities to snow much sooner than the NAM's. Around 6Z Wednesday instead of around 12Z on the NAM's. 

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html

HRRR says between 17-18z today for the corridor. I'm pretty skeptical of that but I've seen the hrrr do mix lines well before. 

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10 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Probably seals the deal on a warning for everyone north of I-66.

Personally, I think they won't even issue a WWA for south of there.  Probably just a strongly worded Special Weather Statement for 4 to 8" of snow with some minor issues on the road, with temps in the mid to upper 30's.    The 0c line is running about 2 miles north of progged now.  Not sure we get out of this with even an inch now. 

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4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Personally, I think they won't even issue a WWA for south of there.  Probably just a strongly worded Special Weather Statement for 4 to 8" of snow with some minor issues on the road, with temps in the mid to upper 30's.    The 0c line is running about 2 miles north of progged now.  Not sure we get out of this with even an inch now. 

Wasn't Oc around  EZF with the models?

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6 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

The RGEM is really pumping the heavy snow in on the front side of the 500 low this run. Most of area gets hit pretty hard overnight.

yea it's been jumpy though, along with the nam.  i think the main consistent trend is that there's going to be quite a band forming in central va beelining for the cities sometime in the morning.  that seems to be when things pop and it reminds me a little bit of jan '11 in that aspect (which is a good thing).

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Yea, I don't even know what the F it means (maybe I'm old...or young?) but it's funny as hell either way. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Don_Cherry

He is a hockey guy and he wears different suits -- https://torontolife.com/city/toronto-sports/don-cherrys-most-bizarre-blazers-of-the-season-ranked-in-order-of-craziness/

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7 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

It's you!!!!  My favorite screen name.   All is well.

Not sure about EZF, in all seriousness.  

Thanks on both scores. I saw model discussion of it being there, and then closer to HEF, or even DCA, but I frankly bounced in and out of the model discussions because of work and maybe conflated a bunch of runs.  

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